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By 2050, Southwest Forests Projected to See Worst Drought Conditions in at Least 1,000 Years
Climate Progress / News Analysis
Published: Sunday 7 October 2012
They warn that climate projections indicate that “the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years.”
Scientists report in the journal Nature Climate Change that the drought-stress currently being experienced by forests in the Southwestern U.S. “is more severe than any event since the late 1500s megadrought” that “probably led to deaths of a large proportion of trees living at the time.”
They warn that climate projections indicate that “the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years.”
In Temperature as a Potent Driver of Regional Forest Drought Stress and Tree Mortality (by A. Park Williams et al., Nature Climate Change, 30 September 2012), the authors say that the current severe drought event in the Southwest — which extends from 2000 to the present – is the fifth strongest since 1000 AD. They define the Southwest as including Arizona, New Mexico and the southern portions of Utah and Colorado. They attribute the current event both to natural variability and to rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activity; and they associate it with “regional-scale declines in canopy greenness and tree survival, due in part to large bark-beetle outbreaks and increasingly large wildfires.”
A combination of declining precipitation during the cool season and rising temperatures during the warm season is likely by mid-century to be accompanied by increased forest decline. “If forest drought stress exceeds late 1500 levels, we expect that a lot of trees are going to be dying,” says the article’s lead research, A. Park Williams (Los Alamos National Laboratory), in a press release on Monday from the U.S. Geological Survey.
“Consistent with many other recent studies, these findings provide compelling additional evidence of emerging global risks of amplified drought-induced tree mortality and extensive forest die-off as the planet warms,” said co-author Craig D. Allen, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.
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ABOUT Nick Sundt
Nick Sundt is a climate change expert at the World Wildlife Fund. This piece was originally published at WWF and was reprinted with permission.
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7 comments on "By 2050, Southwest Forests Projected to See Worst Drought Conditions in at Least 1,000 Years"
October 08, 2012 7:17am
A repeat of what broke Anasazi culture. Don’t ask about the hecatomb of 140 head-smashed-in children....
October 08, 2012 8:09am
Correct about the Anasazi. Except they weren't dealing with the emissions of millions of cars and the effects of 200 plus years of the industrial revolution. Not "precisely" a repeat. More like a modern day "defeat." As for the "140 head-smashed-in children"...the current crop of neo-liberalist scum now pulling the levers of power throughout the Western world will simply starve the undesirables ( read:impoverished). Then Jesus can take them to herd sheep and sacrifice goats on a big rock.
WA
October 07, 2012 4:26pm
Seattle set a record for a dry spell yesterday, 76 days with only .03 inch of rain. Soggy Seattle? Not anymore, we should be planting cactus. I think the estimates of drought in this article are conservative. Think of the way Arctic air masses come down through the center of the nation, then consider that the Arctic ice was the smallest on record this year, the warmer weather in the Arctic is influencing our weather. We're in for some really rough weather! Meanwhile, Romny laughs. "Ha, ha, Dartanyan, what care I of death? Tallyho!"
October 07, 2012 1:09pm
As a forestry student I worked on the Alpine district of Apache National Forest in AZ in 1957,8 & 1961. It is hard to imagine that almost the entire Alpine district went up in smoke a couple years ago. Their 'dry season' was in early summer followed by rains in Jul - Sept. In summer of 1957 they had so much rain that spontaneous 'springs' showered water on 'Coronado Trail' south of Alpine. Water was everywhere that summer. Just natural variability? Has it every been as wet since, anyone know?
October 07, 2012 12:07pm
Humankind is feverishly in the process of destroying the "one" and only location it has to live. And yet it views itself as the most intelligent species on the planet.
The cockroaches will be "shopping" at Macy's long after the decomposed bodies of "the superior race" have been blown to the four corners of a hot, arid and dying world. Perhaps in a million years, sans the "type A" personalities that have plagued, plundered and persecuted the "average" individual, the Earth will once again regain the splendor of its past. Given the age of the planet, approximately 4.7 billion years old, man has essentially destroyed the environment in less than 200+ years, the duration of the industrial revolution.
The dinosaurs existed for over 150 million years. "Civilized" man will be extinct in less than 10 to 20 "thousand," depending on who you read and believe. Either way...pretty pathetic. Of course, for the fundamentally dogmatic, the "rapture" awaits. The single most enduring "myth" in man's checkered history. And most sadly...it didn't "have" to be this way.
October 07, 2012 8:12pm
The Industrial Revolution is a fair starting point of our environmental decline, but it appears it was not really that significant in terms of adverse impact on the planet. I think it is just as important to recognize other points in the slide. The invention of the internal combustion engine and the sudden proliferation of automobiles just over a hundred years ago is certainly one. Another would be the obsession with excessive, mindless over-consumption, post-WWII, which I suspect correlates with TV and mass marketing. Simultaneous with that was the commercial development of plastics, which helped indoctrinate us into a throw-away consumption habit ... at least in the more 'advanced' consumerist countries. Sadly, the less 'advanced' (typically more agrarian) countries are often drawn to copy our excessive habits.
I would really like to see a good article exploring this history; maybe NofChg can find one?
October 08, 2012 8:23am
Jeff Lewis, Your points concerning "mindless over-consumption" and our "throw away consumption habits" are cogent. I "am" a bit baffled by your thinking that the Industrial Revolution "was not really that significant in terms of adverse impact on the planet." ??? You mention "the invention of the internal combustion engine" and "the sudden proliferation of the automobile" as being factors in our environmental "slide." The Industrial Revolution "started" in the mid-to-late 1700's but that in no way implies it "ended" there. The invention of the internal combustion engine and the mass proliferation of cars are simply latter day extensions of what began centuries ago. I, too, would like to see a good article "exploring this history. Thanks for responding Jeff.