Alleged Iranian Assassination Plot Suspicious, Experts Say

Barbara Slavin
Inter Press Service / News Report
Published: Thursday 13 October 2011
Several U.S. intelligence experts expressed skepticism about the expertise of the DEA in evaluating such a sensitive case.
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U.S. Justice Department charges that elements of Iran's government were behind a foiled plot on the life of Saudi Arabia's U.S. ambassador have boggled the minds of many Americans knowledgeable about both Iran and terrorism.

The alleged target and modus operandi – employing a Mexican drug cartel to blow up Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir at a Washington restaurant – are unusual, to say the least, for a government that has focused on political dissidents and theatres of war closer to home.

"Fishy, fishy, fishy,'' Bruce Riedel, a CIA veteran who was formerly in charge of the Near East and South Asia on the White House National Security Council, told IPS. "That Iran engages in assassinations is old news. That it would use a Mexican drug cartel would be new."

Iran has not been behind a political assassination in the United States since a year after the 1979 revolution, when an African-American convert to Islam, Daoud Salahuddin, killed the former press attaché at the Iranian Embassy, Ali Akbar Tabatabai, in a Washington suburb.

Iran was also responsible for assassinations of Iranian dissidents in Europe in the 1980s and early 1990s but used its own agents or members of Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite organization that Iran helped create following the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

Hezbollah is believed responsible for the 1983 bombing of a U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut and a spate of other bombings and abductions in Lebanon.

More recently, Iran has allegedly backed local proxies responsible for the deaths of U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.

U.S. experts on Iranian spy agencies and tradecraft say the hare-brained scheme described in the Justice Department complaint does not resemble the operations of the Quds Force, the external arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Al-Quds means Jerusalem in Arabic.

"Nothing about this adds up," said Kenneth Katzman, author of a book on the IRGC and expert on Iran at the Congressional Research Service.

"Iran does not use non-Muslim groups or people who are not trusted members or associates of the Quds force," Katzman said. "Iran does not blow up buildings in Washington that invites retaliation against the Iranian homeland."

Indeed, the timing would be extremely awkward for Iran, which is already facing growing isolation because of its nuclear program and domestic abuses of human rights.

This weekend, Ahmed Shaheed, the new U.N. special rapporteur on human rights to Iran, will release his first report, which is expected to excoriate the Iranian government for its treatment of its own citizens, especially in the aftermath of disputed 2009 presidential elections.

Early next month, the International Atomic Energy Agency is scheduled to share with its board members new information about alleged Iranian research into making a nuclear warhead. A new finding against Iran by the board of the nuclear watchdog group would increase pressure on Russia, China and members of the Nonaligned Movement to approve more sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Iran has vehemently denied the U.S. allegations that Quds Force officers recruited an Iranian-American from Texas, Manssor Arbabsiar, as part of a plot to kill al-Jubeir by employing members of a Mexican drug cartel.

Katzman speculated that Arbabsiar, a former used car salesman who was apparently in financial difficulties, may have come up with the idea on his own. According to the official complaint, he contacted a member of the Los Zetas cartel who turned out to be an informant of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), as well as a cousin in Iran who has connections to the Quds Force.

Mr. Arbabsiar was said to have wired nearly 100,000 dollars to the informant's bank account from Iran in September and to have promised 1.5 million dollars to do the deed. He was arrested earlier this month when he was refused entry to Mexico and put on a plane to New York.

It is possible that the Iranian cousin "agreed to support him in some way but was doubtful he could pull it off", Katzman said. "This was not a thoroughly vetted and approved terrorist plot."

Several U.S. intelligence experts expressed scepticism about the expertise of the DEA in evaluating such a sensitive case.

Riedel noted that the complaint refers to "elements" of the Iranian government, "which suggests that the administration doesn't think that all elements of the Iranian government were involved".

An Iranian source, speaking with IPS on condition he not be named, said that the Quds force would investigate the Iranian alleged to have participated in the plot "to find out if there is any personal interest" involved, suggesting an element of freelancing.

"It seems the Americans and Saudis need this propaganda to promote their policy against Iran at this time, given that they have occupied three Muslim countries in the world – Iraq, Afghanistan and Bahrain," the source added.

While Iranian-Saudi tensions are clearly on the rise, Riedel questioned why Iran would want to target the Saudi ambassador. Al-Jubeir, while close to Saudi King Abdullah, is not a member of the royal family and has functioned mostly as the King's translator and "favoured messenger boy", Riedel said.

Both Katzman and Riedel said they were troubled by the way in which the Obama administration has jumped on the case, with a news conference by the attorney general and high-profile statements by the president and secretary of state.

Given the current tensions in the region, "I hope they know where they want to take it," Riedel said.

Vali Nasr, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, told CNN that the United States should "make public all the details of this plot" to avoid feeding Middle Eastern conspiracy theories.

"It is only with clarity of facts that the United States can make a convincing case for why Iran's anti- American posture and violent tactics is not heroic bravado deserving of accolade, but a cynical gamble that endangers the whole region," Nasr wrote.

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ABOUT Barbara Slavin

Barbara Slavin is an expert on U.S. foreign policy and the author of a 2007 book on Iran entitled "Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S. and the Twisted Path to Confrontation.” A nonresident senior fellow at The Atlantic Council specializing on Iran, Ms. Slavin is also a contributor to AOLNews.com and Foreignpolicy.com among other media outlets.  Ms. Slavin was Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security of The Washington Times in 2008-09. Prior to that, she served for 12 years as senior diplomatic reporter for USA TODAY where she covered such key issues as the U.S.-led war on terrorism and in Iraq, policy toward "rogue" states and the Arab-Israeli conflict. She accompanied three secretaries of State on their official travels and also reported solo from Iran, Libya, Israel, Egypt, North Korea, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Ms. Slavin, who has lived in Russia, China, Japan and Egypt, is a regular commentator on U.S. foreign policy on National Public Radio, the Public Broadcasting System and C-Span. She wrote her book on Iran, which she has visited seven times, as a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in 2006 and spent October 2007-July 2008 as senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace, where she researched and wrote a report on Iranian regional influence, entitled “Mullahs, Money and Militias: How Iran Exerts Its Influence in the Middle East.”

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23 comments on "Alleged Iranian Assassination Plot Suspicious, Experts Say"

That link wokred great, but now i have Mediatomb installed witch works very good.But unfortunatly the default import routine is not that nice :( so i wanted to do my own import script.unfortunatly JS for import is disabled (not compiled) does anyone know if there is a version with JS support for the CH3MNAS?

syed salamah al...

October 14, 2011 4:05am

The United States of A(IPAC)'s Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Boris Badenov's picture
Boris Badenov

October 13, 2011 10:47pm

This is espionage 101.
It's the perfect thorn in the lion's paw. If people can't see this, then why would the Obama administration release this damning intel. Are they planning what the Reagan/Bush administration did when they bombed Libya?

John Costello

October 13, 2011 8:57pm

Firstly, it must be understood that Israel has no ulterior motives. They really do want to be left in peace. The problem is; the children of the Holocaust raised a pretty paranoid brood and they've gone on a spree that has made damn sure they've got plenty to be paranoid about.
Israel got its wish in Iraq and I'm sure the wish list is on the table during discussions with State about "The Palestinian Question". The Saudis only want to preserve the status quo and that way lye's with its creator.

PAUX

October 16, 2011 2:50am

I was amused that israel was not mentioned in the article. You were being sarcastic about israel and pease..right. It is israel's Yinon plan being worked on by the US. This is a plan to reconfigure it's strategic surroundings, to neutralize target states, thus the only superior state in the region is israel.
This FBI/Cia plot is ridiculous. I wonder if the cartel is the one being used for the "Fast and Furious" gun running operation by the CIA /FBI and the informant is one that they have been working with who does have a drug charge in the US that will be erased with this cooperative stance with their lies.
This author is a little bit disingenous by listing negative actions "believed" to be done by this nation. While there are plenty of actions that could be listed done by israel, Saudia Arabia and the US.

flageek

October 13, 2011 2:04pm

As an old intelligence analyst I always ask the question, "Who wins?" it's right up there with follow the money!

The Iranians don't win. They're made to look like a bunch of blood-thirsty, incompetent boobs! They're not, you know.

We are being made to look like a bunch of rubes who don't know when somebody is spinning a yarn.

The only winners are the Saudis. They get to keep a rapprochement from happening when the "realignment" begins on the tail-end of the Arab Spring. And, if things work out REALLY well the snake gets it head cut off. There would be no rival Shiite axis to rival the Sunni power center they are.

old grandma

October 13, 2011 1:05pm

Israel sends it's assassins & kills all over the world, so does the US. This is another of the FBI's own creations for an excuse to go to war. Nobody anywhere believes these lies. Israel & the US are the terrorists & the biggest threat to world peace.

old grandma

October 13, 2011 1:06pm

Obama was elected because he was going to end these illegal wars. 75% of the US population want the wars to end. Do we live in a democracy or not? Yes, Israel wants the US to start a war in Iran, what is new, they have been pressing for this for 10 years. Israel sends it's assassins & kills all over the world, so does the US. This is another of the FBI's own creations for an excuse to go to war. Nobody anywhere believes these lies. Israel & the US are the terrorists & the biggest threat to world peace. Our mainstream media, foreign owned, spews out nothing but lies, isn't that illegal? The US population are tired of these lies & our corrupt politicians that do not serve us or the best interests of the country & the world.

PAUX

October 16, 2011 2:53am

You are OH SO RIGHT! Thanks for your input.

old grandma

October 13, 2011 1:02pm

Obama was elected because he was going to end these illegal wars. 75% of the US population want the wars to end. Do we live in a democracy or not? Yes, Israel wants the US to start a war in Iran, what is new, they have been pressing for this for 10 years. Israel sends it's assassins

Will Murray

October 17, 2011 11:30pm

"Obama was elected because he was going to end these illegal wars."

No, he was elected, in part, to end our involvement in the Iraq War, which will be ended by the end of this year.

American Muse

October 13, 2011 11:54am

OMG! Mr. Obama is ginning up another war, this one against Iran. His effete attorney-general is piling up a propaganda parade using bogus evidence. Just another lie by Mr. Obama: remember he said he would talk to Iran when he ran for president in 2008? Instead he's show himself to be a warmongering zealot.

Rather than fabricate another for-Israel-war to send our sons and daughters to die in, the president should be prosecuting the financial criminals on Wall Street and the criminal war-makers in the George Bush administration.. Nary a word of that from Mr. Obama or Attorney-General Eric Holder.

Will Murray

October 17, 2011 11:29pm

Come on now, this "plot" sounds extremely fishy to me, but the USA is NOT going to war with Iran, ever, since it's not in our's or Iran's best interest to do so, period.

Dumb Dumb

October 13, 2011 11:42am

Yeah sure somebody was going to trust the Zetas....
Well see you later I have to suck my Thumb a little more!

Dumb Dumb

October 13, 2011 11:35am

Well this is just another Gulf of Tomkin ...

Smallbear

October 13, 2011 7:15pm

Exactly! Another false flag operation to distract Americans from the issus of the economy, OWS, and the new Palestinian state.

Gilbert Schwob

October 13, 2011 11:33am

And if the story was "conveniently" adjusted by both countries?

Iran may need it for reuniting its own people and the Administration (mainly Holder under an Issa's subpeona related to ... Mexico (?!!) to show that it ensures security.

So many questions remain opened!

Theodore Ziolkowski

October 13, 2011 11:28am

Interesting, I just wrote yesterday that I thought this whole thing might be an activity taken by the very Conservative Right Wing Republicans and Tea-Party Members and the United States of America's War Machine. It is the way that this group creates Jobs in the Past History of the United States of America.

Julia S. Russell

October 13, 2011 10:50am

Excellent article, highly informative, but who's the guy in the picture? Omar Sharif?Thank you,Julia

seeuingoa

October 13, 2011 10:38am

America pretending to be on the moral highground!

What about US killing other nationalities in different countries with their drone attacks against international law.

Guantanamo against international law

Iraq war against international law.

Come on please. PLEASE.

Sandro Camarao
Lake Mary, FL
October 13, 2011 9:43am

Guess the Obama administration isn't so skilled on selling fairy tales as the Bush administration. The administration needs to fire the spinsters and con artists and rehire Bush's team;-)

How to Sell a War 101
Professors: Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Karl Rove
TA: Colin Powell

Johnlray

October 13, 2011 10:10am

Yes, conspiracy theories. This is exactly what the left needs right now. 9/11 truth worked out so well for us.

Sandro Camarao
Lake Mary, FL
October 13, 2011 9:43am

Guess the Obama administration is not so good at making up fairy tales as the Bush administration.