The Austerity Death-Trap
Ron Paul’s newly-unveiled economic plan – promising to cut $1 trillion from the federal budget in year one (presumably that means 2013) – is only slightly more ambitious than what we’re hearing from other Republican candidates. They’re all calling for major spending cuts starting as soon as possible.
What are they smoking?
Can we just put ideology aside for a moment and be clear about the facts? Consumer spending (70 percent of the economy) is flat or dropping because consumers are losing their jobs and wages, and don’t have the dough. And businesses aren’t hiring because they don’t have enough customers.
The only way out of this vicious cycle is for the government – the spender of last resort – to boost the economy. The regressives are all calling for the opposite.
But even without these hare-brained Republican plans, we’re heading in their direction anyway. Unless Republicans agree to a budget deal before the end of the year (don’t hold your breath), the temporary payroll tax cuts and extended unemployment benefits we have now will end.
The result will be the most stringent fiscal tightening of any large economy in the world.
Together with ongoing cuts at the state and local government level, the scale of this fiscal contraction would be almost unprecedented.
It will come at a time when 25 million are Americans looking for full-time work, median incomes are dropping, home foreclosures rising, and a record 37 percent of American families with young children are in poverty.
To call this economic lunacy is to understate the point.
And if you think 2011 is bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Even if you’re a deficit hawk this is nuts. Instead of reducing the ratio of debt to the size of the overall economy, this strategy increases the ratio because it causes the economy to shrink.
Call it the austerity death trap.
Under these circumstances, the harder a country works to cut its debt, the worse the ratio becomes — because the economy shrinks even faster.
Greece is already in the trap. Spain and Italy are perilously close. Even Britain, France, and Germany are tip-toeing up to it. And now us.
Deficit hawks have to understand: The first step must be to revive growth and jobs. That way, revenues increase and the debt/GDP ratio drops. Only then – when the economy is back on track – do you start cutting.
At the start of the Clinton administration the annual budget deficit was almost $300 billion. But rather than take a meat-axe to spending, we pushed for growth, as did the Fed. The expansion of the 1990s made it easy to get the budget under control. By 2000 we had a $226 billion surplus.
The austerity trap will even hurt Mitch-McConnell Republicans whose top priority is to “make sure Obama is a one-term president.”
While it increases the likelihood of this Republican goal, it doesn’t stop there. Because the austerity trap will last for many years, any Republican successor will also be a one-termer.
This article was originally posted on Robert Reich's blog.
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23 comments on "The Austerity Death-Trap "
zitgyqg
November 07, 2011 11:02am
Remember that every dollar the government puts into the economy was first taken out of the economy, and most of the money government takes is wasted in bureaucratic make-work jobs or in making stuff to waste in war. The ENTIRE economy is consumer spending, and all government actions are friction that slows the machine. It's just another version of the Broken Window Fallacy.
Want to fix the economy? End all "Intellectual Property" laws and other barriers to entry in the market. Petition to end all government bailouts and subsidies so the inefficient and corrupt are weeded out of the economy. Shut down the military-industrial complex, since making stuff just to be destroyed or to destroy other peoples' stuff is wasteful. Cut taxes across the board (preferably to zero) and let people choose where to use their own money to boost their local economies instantly while also immediately reducing the cost of doing business here in the US to bring back jobs.
Do you really want rationality in this discussion? Start by ending the institutionalized coercion and let people be free.
November 07, 2011 7:37pm
Well said!
Sing-a-long:
doctorsparkles.com/audio/DOCTOR_SPARKLES-Without_Free.mp3
November 07, 2011 12:04pm
Stimulus spending is cargo-cultism. It's like building a runway and expecting planes to land, loaded with goodies. It is a fool's errand.
November 07, 2011 7:28am
Then again there's the Big Government Fascist death trap...
Then again there's the Big Government Socialist death trap...
Given a choice between fascism and socialism, I choose Liberty!
"More government spending" leads to bigger government with its inherent beaurocratic waste, loss of liberty and inevitable croney capitalism. It also devalues the dollar, (and who does that hurt the most? Come to think of it... who does welfare hurt the most? Hint: disempowerment) As Ron Paul correctly argues, "bigger government" is what got us into this mess. Big Government IS the long story arc "death trap". Increased government spending can only hasten "our" demise. Is that the goal? (and who would that likely benefit the most?)
Ron Paul brings up two examples of cutting government spending to stimulate the economy... when military returned after WWII and during the recession in the early 1920's. Less government spending DID result in the creation of more jobs to stimulate the economy. Mr. Reich acuses Paul of nonreality based ideology, but ignores his reality based examples. Now WHO'S living in ideology land, really?
Ron Paul vs. Big Brother 2012!
October 21, 2011 2:52pm
Mr Reich is again a voice of reason in a wilderness of political sturm und drang. I thought Colbert had a great take on this as well, and here I must paraphrase: ... FDR couldn't end the great depression by huge government spending..... that had to wait for huge government spending. The point: If the navel gazers on Wall St. cannot see fit to invest in this nation, the government MUST, deficits be damned. In fact, if the hedge fund turds that presume themselves to be god's anointed messengers on earth see America as a bad investment, what do we need them for at all? If I thought there was anyone in Congress was anything other than part of the 1% themselves, (Bernie Sanders excepted) I would be all for simply nationalizing their whole operation, confiscating their bank accounts AND their G-Vs, turning their homes into public parks and put the turds to work blowing leaves in what used to be their own driveway. But that would be too much to ask, right now. I am still wondering what it is that conservatives are trying to conserve, The gilded age?
October 21, 2011 12:35pm
yes following weimar republic will be great for the USA
October 21, 2011 8:31am
You can either live in a society that condones the bribery of public officials or you can live in a representative democracy. The one will always preclude the other.
October 21, 2011 1:02am
Time to get GET MONEY OUT of politics -- So True!!!!!
October 20, 2011 7:55pm
They are all insane in the Republican/Libertarian parties. Truly it takes real jobs for the system to work. It also needs a tax base that contributes from the working class. While the elites try to outsmart everyone, they are only creating austerity for the American public, and they fully know it can't work. It is truly a short term goal and it is simply stupid. The loss of conscience of the elites is the reality. Either that or they are plumb stupid.
But truly the first thing that has to be done is to make sure in the 2012 election is make this the real debate as the main centerpiece if discussion. I can't underestimate the Republicans and what they have up their sleeves, because inequality is the basis of the predatory, capitalistic way for them. What we have to recognize has to be transferred over for the American public as real fact of our economic demise. That is, if we dismiss fact we will have the wrong people in office that will continue to keep this horrible system that will continue to initiate austerity to the American working class.
October 20, 2011 6:06pm
You go Robert! You are so smart!!
Keeping it honest: Remember the Movie: So many news articles stating that American protesters have “no clear “agenda? It seems crystal clear to the middle class America that they are frustrated by the lack of concern that exists for the people in this country who need jobs and hope to support themselves and families. Millions of unemployed people looking for work in this country are being ignored and slowly erased by mega-corporations whose only concern is for their obscene profits far exceed anyone’s understanding! The beauty and treasured tradition of America allows people the freedom to unite and speak out to draw attention to these huge social injustices. It’s about time that Americans did and said, “we are mad as hell and we are not going take it any longer!” For the record, “Greed is Not good”; it’s ugly, selfish, obscene and destructive for our society. After all, we are a still a democracy, not aristocracy, nor a Banana Republic! Just look around this great county! " It's no surprise that Congress are raising money from Wall Street by saying they want to repeal consumer protections sand allow Wall Street to write its own rules, AND the recipients of dollar tax payer bailout with no conditions and used it for non-performance bonuses!
Dylan Ratigan
It's Time to GET MONEY OUT of politics
We are using our ability to influence media outlets as a platform to force this issue to the center of the 2012 elections. We are using The Dylan Ratigan Show to build this digital wave, so join us. As the petition grows, the wave grows. Email, Facebook, Tweet — GET MONEY OUT.
"No non-citizen shall contribute money, directly or indirectly, to any candidate for Federal office. United States citizens shall be free to contribute no more than the equivalent of $100 to any federal candidate during any election cycle. Notwithstanding the limits construed to be part of the First Amendment, Congress shall have the power to limit, but not ban, independent political expenditures, so long as such limits are content and viewpoint neutral. Congress shall set forth a federal holiday for the purposes of voting for candidates for Federal office."
Go to: http://www.getmoneyout.com/
October 21, 2011 6:40am
They should call it what it is, bribery, corruption at the highest levels. Those who partake in it, whether giving or receiving, should be treated as criminals. The last two governors of Illinois were convicted and imprisoned (has Blago been put behind bars yet?) for far less heinous "crimes." And those supreme court justices who enabled it should be chastised and removed for office likewise.
http://www.tpteq.com
October 21, 2011 1:07am
Amen Amen.
Note the fallacy of the Supremes' Citizens United ruling:
If I walk into a Congresman's office and leave an envelope of ideas, that's Free Speech.
If I walk into a Congressman's office and leave an envelope of Money, that's Bribery.
How could the activist Roberts Court strike down a century of electoral statutes and rulings? Why wasn't there more protest, in the streets and in the halls of Congress - oops, wait, you mean they are in on it, actually at the trough? OMG.
October 20, 2011 2:20pm
ROBERT...SEND THIS MESSAGE TO WALL STREET !
Let’s wake up America!
The 1% of Piratical Capitalists are strangling the other 99% of Americans and the rest of the world to death!
I’m sick and tired of the Democrats, the Republicans, the tea party, and the news media!
I’m sick and tired of listening to incessant political nonsense while we the people, are losing everything!
Are we supposed to remain passive while we lose our jobs, our homes, our families, our health, our savings, our future, and our lives!? Are we…really!?!?! Do you people out there want to let this happen!?
Are we just supposed to lie down and die?! Sure, the elite rich would love that wouldn’t they? If we’re dead, then we can’t cause any trouble. If we’re dead, then we can’t come after them!
We’ve been blind and passive way too long. We keep dancing around the real solution here, while the rich pay off our politicians and the courts to stay free and so they can repeatedly rape us!
No-way, it’s time we put a stop to this! They need a lesson here. Unfortunately, the American Revolution, the French Revolution, and the Russian Revolution were necessary because the royals and elite rich just never did get it. They didn’t care that millions of people were being hurt or dying because of them.
We have that same exact international situation right here…right now. We’re not dead yet, and there are millions and millions of us around the world. And that, is POWER!
People, we are in the midst of a Global Revolution! It’s happening now and it’s time we pulled these arrogant royals off of their thrones.
Yes people...
IT'S TIME THIS GOT UGLY!
This is why.
THE NEW AMERICAN PIRATES, ARE KILLING AMERICANS.
This is not about glamorized or fictional piracy. This is, “real piracy.”
Hundreds of our wealthiest leaders and most powerful corporations know that in the next few years, they will be able to siphon, skim, and steal, so much “NEW CASH,” that they and their progeny will be ultra-rich for generations to come.
Welcome to the modern “Piratical Capitalism” movement. And, welcome to WAR!
No, this is not funny, or fiction, or a conspiracy, it is just simple greed and simple theft.
The new pirates of America have launched an all-out siege on us…the 99%, in order to capture, amass, and hold many trillions of dollars for themselves.
All of the recent political power grabs and nonsensical debating is purely a slight-of-hand deflection. President Obama, Democrats, Republicans, the International Press, and even the Tea Party, are watching the tiny pea in the shell game…while the rich and powerful “Piratical Right” is stealing America right out from under us.
Consider that their combined total plunder from corporate flipping, downsizing, offshore labor, speculation, price fixing of oil and energy plus, corruption in defense, health care, banking, student loans, foreclosures, etc., etc., is a trillion dollar treasure for these pirates.
Go ahead, put your own calculator to it.
Are they smarter than we are? Yes, and they are laughing at us. I, we, you, and all of us, have not been able see the big picture of what is happening to our own country and to our own people. The rape and theft of America, has been cleverly packaged, promoted, and sold under the guise of “cost-cutting,” “deregulation,” and “free enterprise.”
The “Piratical Right” is directly responsible for millions of people dying, getting sick, losing their jobs and homes, losing their ability to fight, their spirit, and even losing their will to live. The sick smell of this carnage now permeates the air across America.
To us, this is all unimaginable, because we look for some sense or the morality of things. These modern-day American pirates however, have no moral compass. They are devoid of any conscience, humanity or soul, and are feeding on the flesh of the American people.
Don’t look to the President, the Senate, Congress, the press, or any political party to help. Sadly, they just don’t see it, don’t care, or are part of it. “We the people” are on our own. Start asking questions. Demand answers. If we don’t fight back America…who will!?
History has taught us how to stop piracy!
October 21, 2011 1:10am
Alas, piracy is the downside of "free markets" -- that's the only place "free markets" have ever existed -- on the high seas, along with piracy.
Maybe someday, Dem rhetoric, or someone else, will begin to destroy this fairy tale of "free markets." Don't exist. Never have.
Why are "we" so late & lame in coming up with a counter-narrative?
October 20, 2011 3:32pm
The Empire of Wall Street and London, are now a walking corpse They would kill the people, as in Greece, to prop up dead banks. To end the piracy, we need to eliminate MONETARISM. Bankrupt them, with Glass-Steagall, cut off their life line. Do what Lincoln did, create credit, under the constitution, to grow the real economy. Part of the disease, is the idea that money has intrinsic value. It has none. We need to produce our way out of this, the way FDR organized this in the thirties. That requires not only resistance, but also leadership, and a direction out of the mess. Or else we will end up in a blood bath, and a new Hitler.
October 20, 2011 1:31pm
Unfortunately, many Dems are as nuts on austerity, or worse, than the Republicans. The solution, which Robert knows, is Glass-Steagall, and bankruptcy reorganization, followed by large scale development projects, like FDR's TVA. We need to go back to physical growth, and write off the trillions from the bailout. Glass-Steagall or Die!
Robert, why haven't you yet endorsed Marcy Kaptur's HR 1489?????
October 20, 2011 1:30pm
There is a second way in which austerity is a death trap. By cutting science, you cut off the prospect of future economic development based on innovation. By cutting education, you have a less-qualified, less productive, pool of workers. By delaying medical care, you have a population that is sicker, and more expensive to care for. Similar examples can be found everywher--failure to repair a bridge on time, failure to build a modern transportation network... Failure to provide now for future needs leads to an underdeveloped nation. Right now, America is underdeveloping itself, and the European countries falling into the austerity trap are not far behind.
October 20, 2011 2:34pm
Good ideas as well yet the super rich think they can launch these programs at will--whenever it pleases them and all will be well. Unfortunately, this isn't the way life works. They are stalling on the gas pedal and the engines is dying. As song writer John Lennon said: "Life happens when you're making other plans." Fortunately, having the masses awaken may fast-forward the elites time table; otherwise, they'll find themselves alone behind their gated fences.
October 20, 2011 12:57pm
Robert you need to form and lead a strong progrssive Democrat arm of the party. Because only these principles will save America from sinking down the drain into default that the right wing of the Republican party is draging us into.
October 20, 2011 12:33pm
This government will spend more, as it did before, to help the corporate elite instead of improving overall competitiveness of the system. Spending should be geared towards improving demand for products. The top 1% does spend money on necessities as do the 99%. Hence, spend on projects that helps the 99%. This should buy enough time to address the fundamental sustainability of a system where the top .005% gets over 400 times than the average worker. BRING SOME RATIONALITY to compensation beside the lame excuse of job creators... As it stands now, the corporate elite is the giant black hole of our economy where goods and services get hoarded, nothing escape them....They hoard for no reason!
November 06, 2011 8:05pm
The retired CEO of DuPont, Edgar S. Woolard, Jr., now chair of the New York Stock Exchange's executive compensation committee and speaking out of concern that corporate leaders are losing respect in the public's mind, says the claim that CEOs deserve ever higher salaries because they create wealth, is a "joke" . How they really go about getting these giant pay raises is: "The compensation committee [of the board of directors] talks to an outside consultant who has surveys you could drive a truck through. The outside consultant talks to the Human Resources VP, who talks to the CEO. The CEO tells him what he'd like to receive, which in turn goes back to the Human Resources Dept. staff, who tell the outside consultant what the CEO had on his wish-list. From there it pretty well works out that the CEO gets whatever he thinks he deserves to "remain respected" by his (CEO) peers. (Morgenson, 2005.)
As for why the outside consultants go along with this scam, they know the CEO has a big say-so on whether or not he gets hired again. So they "suggest" a package of salaries, stock options and other goodies they know will please the CEO, so they, in turn, can get rich too. (For an excellent detailed article on the main consulting firm that helps CEOs and other corporate executives raise their pay, check out the New York Times article entitled "America's Corporate Pay Pal". It supports everything Woolard claims and adds new information.)
October 20, 2011 11:59am
As usual Robert is spot on.