Buckle Up for the Robot Revolution
Robots don't take bathroom breaks, and that's one reason why, all else being equal, they may make better factory workers than the human version. But all else is getting less equal. New generations of super "smart" robots are doing more and more complex tasks, their needle arms going into tiny spaces the most delicate human hand can't reach. And just as the machines leap forward in sophistication, their price is coming down.
Another industrial revolution bangs at the doors, and as other industrial revolutions have done, this one will change everything. For one thing, factories that moved to Asia for low-wage workers may return to the United States. After all, if machines can do the labor-intensive jobs, it may not matter whether the factory is in Cleveland, Hartford, Nashville or Guangzhou.
In truth, while factory jobs have left the United States, factories never quite did. America still makes lots of stuff that can be produced with a handful of people running computerized equipment. What's different now is that the machines are getting more clever.
There were always some advantages to manufacturing locally, and they remain. For example, the Flextronics solar-panel plant in Milpitas, Calif., can ship a solar panel to Phoenix more quickly and cheaply than a factory in Jiangsu province can. Courtesy of robots, it can now also compete with the Chinese solar-panel giants on manufacturing costs. Furthermore, the company's creative secrets are safer at home than in China, where protections for intellectual property are notoriously lax.
This trend helps workers in other high-wage countries. In Drachten, Netherlands, a Philips Electronics factory now employs one-tenth as many people as its sister plant in Zhuhai, China, according to a report in The New York Times.
Companies operating here won't care as much whether their employees are unionized or not. For one thing, they'll employ relatively few humans. For another, the people who run the robots will have high-level skills that automatically command good pay. Local cost of living and the price of energy may still play a role. But to attract the factories, a community will have to offer a tech-savvy workforce able to keep the robots on task.
Won't displacing vast numbers of factory workers with plug-in substitutes set off a social revolt? Probably not here, because the kinds of workers who simply glued one part on another were laid off long ago. Today, 9 percent of working Americans are directly employed in manufacturing, way down from 30 percent in 1950.
China is another matter. Its economic miracle has relied on having lots of low-wage people do low-skilled things. They have the jobs to lose. True, China is rapidly educating engineers and other tech workers. But it remains a developing nation where impoverished masses hold high expectations for a cushier tomorrow. Apple is still building factories in China to make the iPhone, but even those plants will have more robots and fewer people than in the past.
The wild card is how robots may threaten other kinds of jobs. These new machines can move around and perform multiple operations. They'll do farm chores, cooking and housecleaning. They're already packing boxes for shipment, using video cameras for eyes.
So here are the big-picture questions: What will happen to those replaced by mechanical arms? Will they be dropped into shiftless poverty? Or will they share in the productivity miracle and suddenly find themselves freed to write poetry? What about new occupations this revolution may open?
All bets are off about who will be the industrial superpower of the 21st century. But here's a hint: It may not be China, after all.
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3 comments on "Buckle Up for the Robot Revolution "
September 19, 2012 2:28pm
Technology is going to do one of two things:
(1) Create a permanent underclass locked out of society in a sort of Orwellian type of new society, separate and unneeded from the small leisure class (think road warrior like societies).
(2) Bring in a completely new system of economics and society that frees people up from the task of constantly trying to earn food, clothing, and shelter.
The need for human labor has been declining since the invention of the wheel. What are the vast majority going to do when they are no longer needed? We have two choices: Let them die off or change our idea about society and economics. The fact is, we just don't need all of the people who need work anymore. It's been circulating that the new unemployment rate is 9%. And with technology, that need will continue to diminish, and the unemployment rate continue to increase.
Consider that by the turn of the 20th century, nearly 30% of all labor was agricultural. Now it's 1.5%.
The challenge is to understand that robots are not "consumers" and robots don't earn wages and spend money. Capitalism is becoming a dinosaur, and with technology always decreasing the need for labor, a barbaric one at that. Barbaric because the old system demands that in order to live, you must work. What happens when there is no work?
September 19, 2012 11:11am
Harrop is right that countries with highly educated populations will benefit most from the robotics revolution. But she fails to note that this still favors China over the United States (and Europe). While American and European governments have been decreasing investment in higher education, the Chinese government has been massively expanding its investment. Accessibility to higher education is decreasing in the United States and middle-tier schools (which now includes much of the University of California system) are being starved of funds. Accessibility in China is improving, and America's leading private universities are opening campuses in China and other overseas locations (NYU, Yale, Duke). The United States could capitalize on the robotics revolution, but this will demand a massive shift in higher education policy.
September 19, 2012 10:09am
Some years ago I saw a short film about a factory in Japan. It was completely run by robots, and made.....robots.