Clarity About Austerity
I have just had the privilege of speaking at the main annual conference of Germany’s Economic Council, the economic and business arm of the Christian Democratic Union, the current governing party. Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble were among the other speakers. It was an interesting event – and, more important, an encouraging one.
It seemed clear that Germany (or at least this rather large gathering of government, business, and labor leaders) remains committed to the euro and to deeper European integration, and recognizes that success will require Europe-wide burden-sharing to overcome the ongoing Eurozone crisis. The reforms in Italy and Spain are rightly reviewed as crucial, and there appears to be a deep understanding (based on Germany’s own experience in the decade and a half following reunification) that restoring competitiveness, employment, and growth takes time.
Greece has no good options, but a serious contagion risk remains to be contained in order to prevent derailment of the fiscal and growth-oriented reforms in Italy and Spain. In the face of high systemic risk, private capital is leaving banks and the sovereign-debt markets, causing governments’ borrowing costs to rise and bank capitalization to fall. This in turn threatens the functioning of the financial system and the effectiveness of the reform programs.
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Thus, the central European Union institutions, along with the International Monetary Fund, have an important role to play in stabilization and the transition to sustainable growth. Their efforts are needed to bridge the gap created by the exodus of private capital, thereby enabling the reform programs to be completed and begin to take effect. The IMF’s role reflects the huge stake that the rest of the world – advanced and developing countries alike – has in Europe’s recovery: it is a high-return investment.
All of this seemed to me to be well understood among German politicians and business leaders. Moreover, this kind of support is and should be conditional on the extent of the reforms carried out in Italy and Spain, the Eurozone’s third- and fourth-largest economies, respectively. Labor-market liberalization in pursuit of competitiveness and growth is crucial – and remains to be implemented.
Buying time for reform to work requires socialization of short-term risk. There is no other way to keep bond yields under control and banks functioning, and there is no ironclad guarantee that the reform programs needed to do the job will be approved.
Eurobonds, viable in the longer term, are thus premature, because they imply a relaxation of conditionality, thereby weakening incentives to implement reforms. But if it all works, sharing risk now will not be expensive in the end. It might even yield a positive return.
What, then, of the much-discussed conflict between austerity and growth? I believe that it is based on a fairly serious misunderstanding. For Germans, austerity, in the form of sustained wage and income restraint, was an important part of the growth-oriented reforms that their country completed in 2006. Much time and effort was devoted to ensuring that the considerable burden of restoring flexibility, productivity, and competitiveness was shared equitably across the population.
But, on the receiving end of the message in southern Europe (and across the Atlantic), “austerity” is interpreted largely in fiscal terms – as an excessively rapid and potentially growth-destroying drive to cut deficits faster than the economy can structurally adjust and fill the gap in aggregate demand. In other words, harsh austerity is being viewed largely through a Keynesian lens.
Finding the right balance between excessively rapid and dangerously slow deficit reduction is important, and not all that easy. But that is just one component of rebalancing. Growth is essential to bringing down public debt/GDP ratios, and thus is a key part of fiscal stabilization. And it is true that the benefits of deficit reduction, if achieved too fast, will be more than offset by the negative effect on growth.
At the same time, to restart an economy’s growth and employment engines, other measures are needed, and vary somewhat across countries, owing to different initial conditions. But they generally include removing rigidities and other barriers to competition in labor, product, and service markets; investment in skills, human capital, and the technology base of the economy; and rebuilding safety nets in ways that promote and support, rather than impede, structural adjustment.
These reforms require the sacrifice of certain kinds of protections, as well as of income and consumption growth. The benefits come in the form of sustainable patterns of growth and employment in the future. Discipline and austerity thus entail inter-temporal and intergenerational choices about the price to be paid now – and how fairly that burden is to be borne – for greater economic opportunity and social stability in the future.
After all, restoring stability and growth is only partly about reviving short-term aggregate demand. It is also about structural reform and rebalancing, which comes at a cost. Achieving a sustainable pattern of growth requires choices that affect not just the level of aggregate demand, but also its composition – for example, investment versus consumption.
Whether one calls this austerity or something else is a matter of semantics. But the confusion that has resulted is anything but harmless. On the contrary, it has become a major impediment to a common understanding of current challenges, and thus to achieving a broad consensus on the right path forward – one with well-defined and differentiated responsibilities – in confronting them.
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5 comments on "Clarity About Austerity"
June 21, 2012 5:46pm
anti austerity was tried in the 30 [worked great LOL] THE 2008 panic is very close to 1920 panic harding solved the 1920 panic by doing nothing
June 21, 2012 10:22am
The author appears to be clueless. Of course there is a different definition of "austerity" depending on whether you are a debtor nation or solvent nation. And if a debtor nation, the cause of your indebtedness is also important. Germany and Greece differ in the former. The US and Greece differ in the latter. In Greece, everyone is on the take, some more than others. In the US, the big problem is the plundering of the Medicare and SS accounts by politicians to reward a small contingent on both the left and the right. The rest of us are suffering for their rhetoric, inability to tax appropriately, and lack of responsibility in their spending. Our whole society would benefit if payroll taxes were used as intended and not use to overpay some congressional contributor for goods and/or services.
June 21, 2012 12:41am
We had, in the USA, what would be called draconian austerity before the 1929 stock market crash. There was no SSI, no Medicare or other social welfare programs funded by the state or federal governments. Yet with all that austerity, the economy crashed.
You can take everything away from the middle class and the poor, and the way things are ran, the economy will crash, and crash, and crash ad infinitum.
The wealthy are simply apex predators living off of the rest of us by manipulating the entire world economy to their service, like a huge casino with the house being the wealthy.
But I'm ready to play their game, as long as the rules are fair. Let's get rid of SSI, Medicare, and public education, and since we cannot even employee those who want to work, much less those who don't, toss people onto the street to die. I'm good with that. Horrible as it sounds, we actually had that in the USA before the New Deal. So we need to revisit it.
But then the wealthy have to live with that model too. They should fund their own infrastructure, police force, military, court system, the tools of education, and whatever else they need to run their rackets. There should be no taxes at all, for any person or group.
No more corporate welfare in the form of cheap government loans for your ballparks, or ocean ports, or clean water--if you want it--or clean air, or any other government agency. It should all be privatized and we should all compete for the resources.
The way it is now, we all compete for resources, but when corporations fail, the wealthy make millions off their failure, and when the banks fail, they get trillions in tax dollars. Not really too fair.
I just want to see how tough the wealthy really are when we take away their welfare state.
June 20, 2012 8:25pm
This is such a huge complex issue with lots of blame to go around, from the wealthy in Greece not paying their fair share of taxes and hedges betting on and trying to effect the outcome; to the real estate bubble in Spain sanctioned by the bankers. This editorial lays out the classical options under the current financial system. It's that system that is to blame with it's built in boom and bust cycles. The people who actually produce wealth, both the workers and capitalist of main street must be asking themselves that there has got to be a better way. In Iceland where collapse of their financial sector was almost complete the word is "let them fail." If your country, region or whatever is going to have to traverse very hard times because of speculation and excessive debts you might as well pull the people together to face the problem and fix the system at least locally. The system and globalism (international sovereign corporate rights) are spelling doom for workers and small enterprise. The system is broken because it cannot deliver justice,fairness and humanity to a majority of humanity. So let's quickly move to the next system and see if it can work any better because time is running out with global warming and population overload about to adversely effect our planet of finite resource. If we have to move to a full reserve banking system and a type of command economy to get things going in the right direction to save our world so be it. The other option is to just continue on the path we're on.
June 20, 2012 12:50pm
The "clarity about austerity" is that it does not work in a crisis and the 1930s provides a wealth of historical evidence that it does not work. As this crisis continues to deepen, hopefully we will reach the point where rather than going through the charade of talking about restoring growth and employment the discussion will move onto how we have all been enslaved by the privately owned fractional reserve banking system that is controlled by the Rothschilds. Until we reach this point all we can do is watch our bought and paid for politicians and experts talk about austerity while what little wealth the 99% retain gets steadily transferred into the pockets of the Rothschilds and their minions.