Laura Tyson
Published: Wednesday 17 October 2012
During the last 31 months, private-sector employment has increased by 5.2 million and the unemployment rate has now fallen below 8% for the first time in nearly four years.

Closing America’s Jobs Deficit

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The latest data on employment in the United States confirm that the American economy continues to recover from the Great Recession of 2008-2009, despite the slowdown engulfing the other G-20 nations. Indeed, the pace of private-sector job growth has actually been much stronger during this recovery than during the recovery from the 2001 recession, and is comparable to the recovery from the 1990-1991 recession.

During the last 31 months, private-sector employment has increased by 5.2 million and the unemployment rate has now fallen below 8% for the first time in nearly four years. But the unemployment rate is still more than two percentage points above the long-run value that most economists view as normal when the economy is operating near its potential.

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Moreover, the number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or longer) is about 40% of the total – the lowest share since 2009, but still far higher than in the previous recessions since the Great Depression, and about double what it would be in a normal labor market. So the US labor market, while healing, is still far from where it should be.

That is partly because the job losses during the Great Recession were so large – twice as large as those of previous recessions since the Great Depression. In terms of US economic history, what is abnormal is not the pace of private-sector job growth since the 2008-2009 recession ended, but rather the length and depth of the recession itself.

The downturn was a distinctive balance-sheet recession that caused sizable declines in household wealth and necessitated painful deleveraging. Consistent with recoveries from such recessions, demand has grown slowly, despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, and that explains why the unemployment rate remains high. Indeed, businesses cite uncertainty about the strength of demand, not uncertainty about regulation or taxation, as the main factor holding back job creation.

Public-sector demand has also contracted, owing to state and local governments’ deteriorating budgets. As a result, public employment, which usually rises during recoveries, has been a major contributor to high unemployment during the last three years. Despite a modest uptick in the last three months, government employment is 569,000 below its June 2009 level – a 30-year low as a share of the adult civilian population. According to Hamilton Project calculations, if this share were at its 1980-2012 average of about 9.6% (it was actually higher between 2001 and 2007), there would be about 1.4 million more public-sector jobs and the unemployment rate would be around 6.9%.

Recent reports suggest that there are more than three million unfilled job openings, and about 49% of employers say that they have difficulty filling positions, especially in information technology, engineering, and skilled trades. This has fanned speculation that a “mismatch” between workers’ skills and employers’ needs is a significant factor behind the elevated unemployment rate.

But there is scant evidence to support this view. The relationship between the unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate is consistent with patterns in previous recoveries. Nor is there anything unusual about the size of mismatches between job openings and worker availability by industry.

Such industrial mismatches become larger during recessions, reflecting greater churn in the labor market as workers move between shrinking and expanding sectors; but they decline as the economy recovers. This pattern also characterizes the current recovery, and recent data suggest that mismatches between the demand and supply of labor by industry are back to pre-recession levels.

But, as the US economy recovers, technological change is accelerating, fueling demand for more skills at a time when the workforce’s educational-attainment levels have plateaued. This is the real skills gap that existed before the Great Recession, and it is getting worse over time.

The gap manifests itself in much higher unemployment rates for high-school educated workers than for college-educated workers at every stage of the business cycle. The gap also shows up in significant – and rising – inequality between the earnings of high-school educated workers and those with a college degree or higher.

Earnings gains have been especially strong for those with tertiary degrees, while the real wages of high-school educated workers, especially men, have fallen sharply. It is becoming increasingly difficult for workers with low levels of educational attainment to find high-paying jobs in any sector, even when the economy is operating near full capacity.

The US was the world leader in high school and college graduation rates for much of the twentieth century. Today it ranks in the middle of the OECD countries.

A major factor behind that relative decline has been the US school system’s failure to ensure high-quality education for disadvantaged Americans, particularly children from poor, minority, and immigrant households. According to the most recent census, about one-quarter of children under the age of six live in poverty. They are less likely to have access to early-childhood programs that prepare them for school, and are more likely to attend schools that have high student/teacher ratios and that cannot attract and retain skilled teachers.

As a result of these and other problems, the average American secondary-school student receives inadequate preparation in core subjects such as writing, mathematics, and analytical reasoning, which in turn reduces college enrollment and completion rates. The US experience is consistent with OECD evidence that students from countries with greater income inequality score lower on academic achievement tests. And a recent study by McKinsey suggests that the gaps in educational opportunity and attainment by income impose the equivalent of a permanent recession of 3-5% of GDP on the US economy.

To address the skills gap, the US must boost the educational attainment of current and future workers. That means investing more in education at all levels – in early-childhood education programs, elementary and secondary schools, community colleges, trade-school programs for specific jobs in specific sectors, and financial aid for higher education. Above all, it means addressing the income disparities in educational opportunity and attainment.



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5 comments on "Closing America’s Jobs Deficit"

William Bednarz

October 17, 2012 1:10pm

Four Large U.S. Manufacturers To Train Veterans For Factory Jobs
just another headline....no more meaningful than the comments on this one..FACTORY JOBS ?.?. make-shift ?? NOT HELD OFF THE MARKET???
MINIMUM WAGE ???
A HEADLINE - IS A SOUND-BITE IN WRITING....ALWAYS SOUNDS GOOD....BUT ONCE THE INK DRIES ITS ANOTHER STORY
N.A.F.T.A.....?.?.? C.A.F.T.A. ....?.?.?
I'M SORRY BUT I'M A SKEPTIC - - - - NOT CREDIBLE.....SOUNDS GOOD BUT NO SUBSTANCE.....BONUSES ALL AROUND
AND YOU DO NOT GET ANY.....A U S T E R I T Y........CUT, CUT, CUT......FORECLOSURE.....
SELL - OUT.........FRAUD...............LIES............AND NOT BEING ADDRESSED BY WASHINGTON
REMEMBER TO VOTE ( these people out of office - both parties) Would "we THE people" be worse off without the congress...ENTIRELY ????
REMEMBER TO VOTE

carlyle

October 17, 2012 12:33pm

The economists, a few politicians and pundits are aware that to achieve growth and improve employment, working Americans must be refinanced. Increase the minimum wage to its initial value, rebuild infrastructure, increase all governments spending and increase taxes broadly to pay for everything we want for our society. If we can pay for a World War, we can pay for anything we want to have. The one percent will fight to save their plutocracy but when things get really shitty, the are after all, only one percent.

RP

October 17, 2012 11:04am

I'm a daily reader of sites like Nation of Change, Huffpost, etc. While I don't usually post comments, I have to respond with frustration to the recommendations of this op-ed.

For a piece titled, "Closing America's Jobs Deficit", the author spends almost no time addressing how to do it! And after a great deal of build-up, in the *last paragraph* of the op-ed, Ms. Tyson concludes that the prescription for reducing our jobs deficit is better education. I don't disagree that that's important and that it will make a difference in the long run, but we need more jobs NOW.

As with many other well-educated people who have an income (including the two participants in the presidential debate last night), Ms. Tyson focuses on how improving education will increase jobs and opportunity for our young people and for workers who need new skills. That's true. But I also feel like it's a way of avoiding the absolute crisis and misery that's pervading the lives of millions of Americans right this minute, which is a more difficult question to answer, and one that poses a greater risk of criticism to the person proposing a solution.

I've spent most of the last four years without a job. We lost our house, and our family broke apart. Unemployment has run out, and this is the last month I'll have the resources to meet basic survival needs. Ms. Tyson, what should we do to help people like me and the millions of other long-term unemployed, right now, while we also work on far-reaching systemic solutions?

wordgrl

October 17, 2012 11:18am

Thank you, RP, for saying what I was thinking. Both candidates in the debates were less than forthcoming about plans that might be put to work immediately to help those out of work. I could think of a few things I'd do, but I'm not running for office. It's a shame when I see better solutions talked about in the letters to the editor part of my daily paper than I see from people inside the beltway.

greggerritt

October 17, 2012 9:40am

Still based on the fantasy that in a time of ecological collapse the economy will grow fast.