Economics in Denial
In an exasperated outburst, just before he left the presidency of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet complained that, “as a policymaker during the crisis, I found the available [economic and financial] models of limited help. In fact, I would go further: in the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools.”
Trichet went on to appeal for inspiration from other disciplines – physics, engineering, psychology, and biology – to help explain the phenomena he had experienced. It was a remarkable cry for help, and a serious indictment of the economics profession, not to mention all those extravagantly rewarded finance professors in business schools from Harvard to Hyderabad.
So far, relatively little help has been forthcoming from the engineers and physicists in whom Trichet placed his faith, though there has been some response. Robert May, an eminent climate change expert, has argued that techniques from his discipline may help explain financial-market developments. Epidemiologists have suggested that the study of how infectious diseases are propagated may illuminate the unusual patterns of financial contagion that we have seen in the last five years.
These are fertile fields for future study, but what of the core disciplines of economics and finance themselves? Can nothing be done to make them more useful in explaining the world as it is, rather than as it is assumed to be in their stylized models?
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George Soros has put generous funding behind the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). The Bank of England has also tried to stimulate fresh ideas. The proceedings of a conference that it organized earlier this year have now been edited under the provocative title What’s the Use of Economics?
Some of the recommendations that emerged from that conference are straightforward and concrete. For example, there should be more teaching of economic history. We all have good reason to be grateful that US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression and the authorities’ flawed policy responses then, rather than in the finer points of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory. As a result, he was ready to adopt unconventional measures when the crisis erupted, and was persuasive in influencing his colleagues.
Many conference participants agreed that the study of economics should be set in a broader political context, with greater emphasis on the role of institutions. Students should also be taught some humility. The models to which they are still exposed have some explanatory value, but within constrained parameters. And painful experience tells us that economic agents may not behave as the models suppose they will.
But it is not clear that a majority of the profession yet accepts even these modest proposals. The so-called “Chicago School” has mounted a robust defense of its rational expectations-based approach, rejecting the notion that a rethink is required. The Nobel laureate economist Robert Lucas has argued that the crisis was not predicted because economic theory predicts that such events cannot be predicted. So all is well.
And there is disturbing evidence that news of the crisis has not yet reached some economics departments. Stephen King, Group Chief Economist of HSBC, notes that when he asks recent university graduates (and HSBC recruits a large number of them) how much time they spent in lectures and seminars on the financial crisis, “most admitted that the subject had not even been raised.” Indeed, according to King, “Young economists arrive in the financial world with little or no knowledge of how the financial system operates.”
I am sure they learn fast at HSBC. (In the future, one assumes, they will learn quickly about money laundering regulations as well.) But it is depressing to hear that many university departments are still in denial. That is not because students lack interest: I teach a course at Sciences Po in Paris on the consequences of the crisis for financial markets, and the demand is overwhelming.
We should not focus attention exclusively on economists, however. Arguably the elements of the conventional intellectual toolkit found most wanting are the capital asset pricing model and its close cousin, the efficient-market hypothesis. Yet their protagonists see no problems to address.
On the contrary, the University of Chicago’s Eugene Fama has described the notion that finance theory was at fault as “a fantasy,” and argues that “financial markets and financial institutions were casualties rather than causes of the recession.” And the efficient-market hypothesis that he championed cannot be blamed, because “most investing is done by active managers who don’t believe that markets are efficient.”
This amounts to what we might call an “irrelevance” defense: Finance theorists cannot be held responsible, since no one in the real world pays attention to them!
Fortunately, others in the profession do aspire to relevance, and they have been chastened by the events of the last five years, when price movements that the models predicted should occur once in a million years were observed several times a week. They are working hard to understand why, and to develop new approaches to measuring and monitoring risk, which is the main current concern of many banks.
These efforts are arguably as important as the specific and detailed regulatory changes about which we hear much more. Our approach to regulation in the past was based on the assumption that financial markets could to a large extent be left to themselves, and that financial institutions and their boards were best placed to control risk and defend their firms.
These assumptions took a hard hit in the crisis, causing an abrupt shift to far more intrusive regulation. Finding a new and stable relationship between the financial authorities and private firms will depend crucially on a reworking of our intellectual models. So the Bank of England is right to issue a call to arms. Economists would be right to heed it.
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8 comments on "Economics in Denial"
August 30, 2012 1:07pm
Wheels within wheels... The economy is like an internal combustion (OTTO cycle ) engine. The fuel is currency. The Oxygen-Nitrogen air mix is Jobs. The spark ignition is Demand. The GDP is the power output of the engine and transmission at the road. The beginning of the economy is turning of the crank to make the engine turn over, which moves the pistons. They suck in air/fuel mix and then compress it. The spark is generated at the proper time to press forward the next cycle. If any of these things are 'out-of-specification', the engine sputters and stops. People who have jobs and own homes are demand creators. When they lose their jobs , they can not create demand. The businesses that rely on demand to sell their products will slow and stop when demand slows and stops.
The carburator mixture is like the interest rate ( inflation rate ). A richer mixture will help start the engine, and later when the engine is running can be made leaner ( pay down deficits ). All of this was done successfully by Bill Clinton's administration. The choke needs to be closed and a good cranking must take place to get the engine started. The pollution controls, computerized buying and selling automation and low octane fuel needs to be stopped until the system can settle down and become stable. There should be single central control of the air/fuel supply ( Bank ). When the engine is running full speed then changes can be considered to make it fuel efficient. Turn off the Engine Control Computer and run rich for a while. The Great Depression finally ended when the world economies geared up for war. Deficits were ignored. Demand was great. There were jobs for all.
August 24, 2012 5:56pm
We had the rise of complex financial instruments whose impact no one understood fully. We had mortgages sliced and diced until no one knew who owned what NOR the quality of the mortgages they held. I have been reading Ha-Joon Chang and Joseph Stiglitz and it seems to me it is not true that no one could see this coming. Regulations were repealed, bankers were colluding, rating agencies were in cahoots.... It wasn't a mystery. And nothing has changed.
August 23, 2012 8:34pm
When capsules dock at the ISS, they put the entire complex in "free drift" mode so the various motions and inertial impulses can settle down. Economic systems are very complicated and regulated and automated. All financial controls should be stopped to let the natural economic laws regain equilibrium.
August 24, 2012 9:28am
There is no such thing as an uncontrolled market; the uncontrolled market is a fantasy. Somebody, some consortium, whatever is out to control it to personal gain. It's not a mathematical model; it's an organic one, subject to all the opportunistic diseases, germs, weeds, etc., that we see all over the place.
August 23, 2012 1:38pm
The current state of mainstream economics and those that believe it reminds one of the Catholic church when a sun centric theory of the solar system was first proposed. These economists and their classical system whether neo, liberal,salt or fresh water, are practising a system of analysis about as useful as an earth centred solar system.
A handful of economists around the world were warning of the real estate bubble and it's implications but not being of the rigid mainstream academic economic philosophy were ignored. One, who's articles grace these pages is Dean Baker. Another predictee, Steven Keen has severely challenged the old economic system of analysis revealing it's almost total irrelevance to economics in any form at any time. The present model works very nicely in a theory which has absolutely no relevance to the real world. Here in lies the problem as the old school of economic academia with their attendant egos will not even acknowledge that there is a problem with the economic theory they still teach as gospel. These fools have enormous power in the world of economics and shut down any and all conversation if it challenges their fiefdom. So no wonder economic theory as is presently practised is of no use in solving economic problems or even everyday issues or projections. It is a theory of a make believe market and has no application in real world economies.
Economics has yet to be born but the gestation period has begun thanks to a new breed of independent economists like Steven Keen who actually try to explain in their work what is actually taking place in the real world market place. As it stands now the "science" of economics resembles the practice of alchemy as compared to the science of modern chemistry. When it is born perhaps it will even be able to point to a better system of financing than the current inequitable form which has come to dominate the world with such disastrous results for the majority of mankind and the planet with the deification of the very very infinitesimal few.
August 23, 2012 2:52pm
Dude. That was awesome.
Yes, we have disastrous results and a deification of the very very infinitesimal few. An actual deification by the "free market" evangelists.
August 23, 2012 12:02pm
I refer you all to Lydon Larouche "LaRouchePAC.com
August 23, 2012 11:22am
Economists are truly in denial and mostly in denial about ecology. the ecosystem is bigger than the economy, but most economists have no idea how ecosystem collapse is effecting the economy.