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Dean Baker
Published: Friday 11 May 2012
“On the anti-austerity side, a left-wing coalition came in second with around 17 percent of the vote. More ominously, a far right anti-immigrant party, which is also anti-austerity, received almost 7 percent of the vote.”

Greek Voters Give the Boot to Austerity

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Austerity was the big loser in the Greek elections on Sunday. The two main Greek parties, who endorsed the austerity pact signed last year, together got just over one-third of the vote. This is an extraordinary rebuke given that between them, these parties have governed Greece since the end of the dictatorship in 1976.

On the anti-austerity side, a left-wing coalition came in second with around 17 percent of the vote. More ominously, a far right anti-immigrant party, which is also anti-austerity, received almost 7 percent of the vote.

It is important for people elsewhere in the world, and especially in Europe, to understand that the Greek voters were not just being cranky kids who refuse to take their medicine. There is no doubt that Greece’s government and economy were poorly managed in the years leading up to the crisis.

However the current path of austerity does not offer the country a path to a better future. The current path of austerity is simply a path of pain as end in itself. This can be seen from examining the official projections.

The IMF now projects that 2012 will be Greece’s fifth successive year of economic contraction, with 2013 being a year of stagnation. Even with growth projected to resume again in 2014, Greece’s per capita income is still projected to be more than 8.0 percent lower than it was a decade earlier. Its unemployment rate, which is currently hovering near 20 percent, is still projected to be almost 15 percent in 2017. And, its debt to GDP ratio is projected to be 137 percent in five years, far higher than it was at the onset of the crisis.

This is not a path to a healthy economy. And it’s important to remember that the projections from the IMF and European Central Bank have consistently proven to be overly optimistic. Given this economic reality, it’s difficult to see why the Greek people should go any further with such a disastrous policy.

The argument usually given is that there is no alternative. This is not true. Leaving the euro and bringing back the drachma is an alternative, however disruptive this may prove to be.

Leaving the euro would spark a financial and political crisis, but at the end of the day, this move would almost certainly leave Greece better off than staying on its current dead end path. With a devalued currency, Greece would become much more attractive as a tourist destination. Its agricultural exports would be much more competitive in the European Union and elsewhere.

It would be necessary to renegotiate debts. Where this can’t be done, there will inevitably be many bankruptcies for those with large euro denominated debts. This process will not be pretty, but there can be little doubt at this point it is the better path forward.

The model here is Argentina. After it defaulted and broke its currency link with the dollar at the end of 2001, its economy plummeted for three months. It stabilized in the second quarter of 2002 and then began six and half years of solid growth that was only derailed by world economic crisis in 2009.

There are reasons why Greece will have a more difficult path than Argentina; most importantly Argentina always kept its own currency. But even if Greece can only achieve half the pace of growth sustained by Argentina, its prospects from going this route look far better than staying in the euro.

There is an alternative path that would be preferable to Greece leaving the euro: this would be the path where the ECB abandons its austerity path altogether. This would involve some sort of ECB guarantee for the debt of Greece and other heavily indebted countries, a relaxation of budget restrictions across the euro zone and most importantly a commitment to sustain a higher rate of inflation in Germany and other core euro countries. The latter is essential since it is the only way that Greece and other peripheral countries will be able to regain competitiveness if they stay in the euro.

Two weeks ago, the possibility of this sort of change of course seemed far-fetched. Today it still seems unlikely, but following the elections in Greece and the defeat of Sarkozy in France, a major change in course is beginning to look like a possibility.  

The leadership of the ECB and Germany may not recognize it, but their current path is unsustainable. The only question is whether they can adjust before the institutions of Europe begin to collapse around them. Yesterday, the voters in Greece gave this message as clearly as possible.



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ABOUT Dean Baker
Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He previously worked as a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute and an assistant professor at Bucknell University. He is the author of several books, including Plunder & Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy, The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer and The United States Since 1980. He was the editor of Getting Prices Right: The Debate Over the Consumer Price Index, which was a winner of a Choice Book Award as one of the outstanding academic books of the year. He appears frequently on TV and radio programs, including CNN, CBS News, PBS NewsHour, and National Public Radio. His blog, Beat the Press, features commentary on economic reporting. He received his B.A. from Swarthmore College and his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.

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6 comments on "Greek Voters Give the Boot to Austerity"

luckylongshot

May 11, 2012 9:47pm

While I am a big fan of Dean Baker I don't get why he writes on the assumption that what is going on is cyclical and can be fixed when it is systemic and can't be. The problem is there is too much debt and it cannot be repaid and the solution is to wipe the slate clean, write it all off and start again with an asset based currency system. Attempting to keep the current system going is merely delaying the inevitable collapse. The history supporting this view is that so far in history every fiat currency has failed.

Vindicator

May 11, 2012 6:45pm

Watch, Confessions of an Economic Hitman with John Perkins, that's where all the answers lie. It's all a massive global takeover SCAM! http://www.economichitman.com/ See also on You Tube.

Vindicator

May 11, 2012 6:42pm

The great depression was purposely caused by the FAT CAT bankers and they're repeating history this time on a global scale.

dwdallam

May 11, 2012 4:40pm

Remember that in 1929 the USA had almost NO social programs and a social system you could call "austere." There was no safety net. Yet in 1929 we had the Great Depression--even though there were virtually no social programs.

So someone tell me, how is going back even to a state of no social programs going to change the economic structure for the benefit of the majority, or even the security of a nation?

Norman Allen

May 11, 2012 12:43pm

The poor working people swindled by the banksters, pranksters/tricksters (politicians), and magicians (corporate preachers singing the praises of the .0005% to lullaby the 99.9995%) need the Greek path to give the unholy trinity the tip of their boots and a good kick on the shin for hoarding (just because they can, not because they need it or it benefits ANYONE) and starving the working people of the planet.

steve dewitt

May 11, 2012 12:37pm

The spending will continue in Greece and they will drown in socialism. The same with France.