How America’s Falling Share of Global College Graduates Threatens Future Economic Competitiveness

Travis Waldron
Think Progress / News Analysis
Published: Sunday 26 August 2012
“From 2000 to 2010, the U.S. share of college graduates fell to 21% of the world’s total from 24%, while China’s share climbed to 11% from 9%. India’s rose more than half a percentage point to 7%.”
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The United States’ share of global college graduates fell substantially in the first decade of the 21st century and stands to drop even more by 2020 as developing economies in China and India have graduated more college students, presenting challenges for American workers’ ability to remain competitive in a global economy in the future. The U.S. share of college graduates fell from nearly one-in-four to just more than one-in-five from 2000 to 2010, according to “The Competition That Really Matters,” a report from the Center for American Progress and The Center for the Next Generation:

From 2000 to 2010, the U.S. share of college graduates fell to 21% of the world’s total from 24%, while China’s share climbed to 11% from 9%. India’s rose more than half a percentage point to 7%. Based on current demographic and college enrollment trends, we can project where each country will be by 2020: the U.S. share of the world’s college graduates will fall below 18% while China’s and India’s will rise to more than 13% and nearly 8% respectively.

India and China aren’t just closing the gap in overall graduates, they’re also making huge strides in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). According to the report, the annual number of U.S. STEM graduates from four-year colleges and universities increased by 24 percent from 2000 to 2008. In China, the annual increase was 218 percent, and in India, the number of STEM degrees awarded each year tripled from 1999 to 2006.

“The fact that other countries are graduating more and more of their people and giving them a good education, that, in and of itself, is certainly not a negative,” Delaware Gov. Jack Markell (D), who helped unveil the report today, told ThinkProgress. “It’s good for their countries, it’s good for the global economy when there’s a stronger middle class.”

But, Markell said, the falling share of college graduates is indicative of the more competitive global economy, and, as the report notes, the U.S. faces problems in the education sector that could harm future American competitiveness. Only half of American students receive early childhood education, for instance, and the nation has no strategy for improving enrollment, even as evidence shows that those programs increase educational success. Meanwhile, rising levels of income inequality and poverty are broadening America’s education gap, further threatening the nation’s overall educational success and future competitiveness.

As states and localities crushed by the Great Recession are forcing through education cuts at all levels in the United States, other countries — including China and India — are taking major steps to increase educational attainment among their lower- and middle-classes. By creating stronger national standards, improving teacher quality, and making investments into early childhood education and other programs, the report says, the U.S. can follow suit and remain competitive in the future.

“What we have to recognize is that just because we’ve been number one in the past doesn’t mean we’ll be number one in the future,” Markell said. “We have to truly recognize that investments in early childhood and K-12 and higher education and investments in human capital generally are one of the surefire ways to lead to long-term prosperity. … We’re in a new world now, we’re in a new generation, and if you don’t maintain that commitment and that covenant with each new generation of Americans, I’m very concerned about the consequences,” Markell said. “You can’t afford not to make these investments in the future.”



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ABOUT Travis Waldron

Travis Waldron is a reporter/blogger for ThinkProgress.org at the Center for American Progress Action Fund. Travis grew up in Louisville, Kentucky, and holds a BA in journalism and political science from the University of Kentucky. Before coming to ThinkProgress, he worked as a press aide at the Health Information Center and as a staffer on Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway’s 2010 Senate campaign. He also interned at National Journal’s Hotline and was a sports writer and political columnist at the Kentucky Kernel, the University of Kentucky’s daily student newspaper.

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15 comments on "How America’s Falling Share of Global College Graduates Threatens Future Economic Competitiveness"

JoeWeinstein

August 27, 2012 4:57pm

The article does not correctly address or answer its own 'how' question. That's because it ignores quality in favor just of quantity.

The US share of college graduates could drop all the way from 24% down to 5% and not necessarily change 'competitiveness' .

And it doesn't even matter which of three of the following three different scopes of potentially beneficial 'competitiveness' we're most concerned with: the globe as a whole, American society only, or American college grads only.

But no matter which sort of beneficial 'competitiveness' is meant, the article misses the reality that what counts is quality, not quantity. Not how many college graduates come from one country or another, but how good individually are these graduates, especially the best of them: - how good is their training and how talented and skilled and even gifted are they at putting their training - or just their innate smarts - to competitive use.

For the USA the real problem is not the declining percentage of USA graduates but the spectre that in some fields of science and technology those who do graduate are ever less likely than graduates of some foreign institutions to have been excellently trained and - even more important - to be the real talents and real leaders.

Even that spectre would be no real problem for the USA as a whole (as versus for American college graduates) so long as the USA society and economy somehow were to attract and recruit the best of these foreign graduates.

NiceIowaGirl

August 27, 2012 10:51am

The consolidation of neighborhood schools into city-sized schools, along with NCLB, have contributed greatly to the dumbing-down of citizens for the last nearly 20 years. When students feel even more anonymous and invisible in a school of 1000 or more, many respond by treating education as education seems to be treating them.

Brian Glennie

August 26, 2012 9:41pm

Hey, but we have the most soldiers and 'private contractors' with the biggest guns and drones so we can get anything we want anyhow.

luxartisan

August 26, 2012 5:23pm

I've been in education for over 15 years. When I first started, students who weren't interested in graduating could sign out or have their parents sign them out. It was a choice to become educated. Nowadays, such a decision is anathema. Why? Oh, not because it would be better for the student to stay, but because the school/teachers are punished by newspapers, state ed tracking systems and parents who think that the school should not only educate their children, but raise them to be conscientious, hard-working and ethical. Those traits may be concurrently learned in school but they are learned at your parents' knee when you're a wee child.

overeasy

August 26, 2012 5:54pm

Indeed. Parents want to abdicate their roles and let schools do the heavy lifting, when, in reality, schools should handed children with a baseline of common decency and such thing as "good manners."

overeasy

August 26, 2012 4:58pm

I believe the schools are now held hostage by their "clients," the helicopter parents who believe their spawn can do no wrong. We are reaping the rewards of the "everybody gets a trophy" mentality. This isn't a political issue, for parents on both sides of the spectrum still want their kids to be isolated from failure and treated like nitwits. By and large, they exit school with no real world skills. They are glib and well spoken, but they have none of the skills it takes to survie in an actual job.

Funny, isn't it, that the GOP has done everything it can to debase public education in the U.S., while, at the same time, bemoaning the lack of quality job candidates? I believe this is nothing more than a strategy to hire hungry immigrants at lower wages and to further outsource jobs. Corporations will simply claim, "We have no good candidates domestically, so we MUST turn to India or China."

Jeffrey Hill

August 26, 2012 4:58pm

Rush Limbaugh is paid $50,000,000.00/yr. for 8 years ($400 Million), and he flunked out of college after 1 term.

Glenn Beck was paid $38,000,000.00/yr. at Fox Noise, and he flunked out of college quickly.

Sarah Palin went to 5 colleges in 4 years, is dumber than a mud puddle, and got paid $12,000,000.00/10 months at Fox Noise.

College seems to be vastly overrated.

Paul Haeder

August 26, 2012 3:07pm

Ya think blaming this generation and the previous one really gets to the heart of the USA's problem? You think the valued Harvard boys who have run this country are highly educated, in your god-sanctioned STEM fields?

Give us a break -- I have been teaching since 1983 -- at colleges, universities, and in prisons, for the US Army, and so many other places. The value of education -- both early and 3-12, as well as two-year and four-year and up -- it's been set by neo-cons and neo-liberals, by the US Military Industrial Complex, by Bezos-Bill Gates-Boeing-WalMart-and-company, by mass media, by the Christian Movement, and by a flagging adult cohorts who have almost zero good to say about this generation or the past two.

Public schools need to be MORE public, MORE integrated into each community, MORE balanced by national, smart curriculum, and MORE part of the culture. This is a plasticized society of forced consumption and massive disconnection. Truly, this -- like climate change, like fighting poverty, environmental degradations -- project of creating smarter folk is larger than any Mars probe project or Apollo Program. But to attack teachers and to attack the liberal arts, or anything straying from some of your vaunted STEM thinking, well, you miss more than a thousand points around why the USA is bankrupt and bankrupting the rest of the world.

Do we want STEM graduates to sell our souls to the chemical-digital-pharm-GMO world of transnational company hell? Science and Technology for the highest bidder? So we can put more people out of work, so the STEM-ies can work harder for the One Percent?

Bull. When the science smacks US citizens in the face, when it smacks politicians and the neo/con-liberal financeers and corporate fascists in the ass, you think they value that science, math, technology and math? Ya think they listen to PhDs in marine science, in oceanography, in biology, ecology, physics?

Right.

We need a new paradigm shift -- now. Real up on more innovative ways to frame this education debate, and frame the collapse of USA (and, yes, China and India, since they are disasters in terms of environmental calamity and social injustice and poverty).

Can We Consume Our Way Out of Climate Change? A Call for Analysis

By Lyle K Grant

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3211385/

Btrwy

August 26, 2012 1:38pm

Three great comments. We need to demand our Congress, politicians do what is best for America. The greed in America is ruining our once great country.

SkyBlue

August 26, 2012 1:32pm

The US has:
Broken public schools that focus more on teachers' rights than students achievements.
Easy loans to students that attend courses that have no demand in the job market.
A broken job market that prevents graduates from getting work.

The economy killing policies of Bush/Obama need to be thrown out and a new approach is needed.
Romney / Ryan are calling for good reforms, but public opinion is what needs to change.

Ron in NM

August 26, 2012 2:02pm

SKYBLUE:

You can't be serious. Elect another conservative MBA and he's going to do better than Bush? Wow, forward to yesteryear, eh? Nothing like a little regression in the name of Progress. With the Tea Party writing the catechism and the billionaires electing the new pope, I guess we can all look forward to a new paradise...after we die. And if it was all a bunch of BS, we'll never know, will we?

Btrwy

August 26, 2012 1:43pm

Well skyb, Romoney/Lyan Ryan are just a continuation of failed bush/cheny conservative policy with a twist for worse to come. Fascism at its best.

Albert Kapustar

August 26, 2012 12:34pm

Anumber of reasons for falling advanced education.Schools forced to teach memorization instead of thinking skills thanks to "no child left behind" I have read more then 1 article by CEO's who say they prefer to hire foreign graduate students because they are cheaper so many college graduates can't find a job in their field.Loss of wages to everyone but CEO's has made college unaffordable to the average peon.We have let conservatives destroy this country by destroying education and global free trade is finishing us off.Everybody talks about global free trade as if it can't be reversed,we virtually created the global economy and its rules and laws,we can uncreate it.We just need some politicians with backbones to get rid of the global economy which has brought us and poor countries to ruins.

Flak

August 26, 2012 12:23pm

I agree with Mr. Moff above. Also, there's still a sense that most college students who go into education can't hack STEM courses. That's particularly true for elementary ed students. That's critical. Our school systems also hire more and more support staff and administrators and fewer classroom teachers. We do not seem to put a high priority on education in our communities - school library budgets are cut while the football team gets new lights for their playing field. Change will only come about when people truly decide that academics are important for their kids. Then they'll demand political support for schools and demand that those schools put precious resources into specifically academic programs.

Dave Moff

August 26, 2012 10:50am

We have two generations now of people with high school diplomas who are functionally illiterate, to say nothing of unforgivable deficits in math, science, and history. All of which are necessary skills if one wants a college education that is of any value.

The price of a college education has also increased steadily. Some of you may recall "working your way through college". It's no longer possible.

What is needed, above all, is affordable post-secondary education and education at the high school level that is worthy of the name. Whether there is a "quick fix" to either I do not know. The countries which are quickly passing us in numbers of educated people and soon will in economic growth, however, seem to be managing nicely. We can almost certainly learn from them

Public schools do have a major problem in that they seem determined to graduate virtually every student regardless of academic prowess. Rather than lowering standards to accommodate those who do not wish to learn, raise them. If a student does not wish to learn, there should be no requirement that he or she remain in school. Let such students return, however, after they discover how little one can make of the modern world without an active mind, curiosity, and a solid knowledge base.