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Robert Reich
NationofChange / Op-Ed
Published: Thursday 26 April 2012
“Why should we care? Because a recession in the world’s third-largest economy, combined with the current slowdown in the world’s second-largest (China), spells trouble for the world’s largest.”

How Europe’s Double Dip Could Become America’s

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Europe is in recession.

Britain’s Office for National Statistics confirmed today (Wednesday) that in the first quarter of this year Britain’s economy shrank .2 percent, after having contracted .3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. (Officially, two quarters of shrinkage make a recession). On Monday Spain officially fell into recession, for the second time in three years. Portugal, Italy, and Greece are already basket cases. It seems highly likely France and Germany are also contracting.

Why should we care? Because a recession in the world’s third-largest economy, combined with the current slowdown in the world’s second-largest (China), spells trouble for the world’s largest.

Remember – it’s a global economy. Money moves across borders at the speed of an electronic impulse. Wall Street banks are enmeshed into a global capital network extending from Frankfurt to Beijing. That means that notwithstanding their efforts to dress up balance sheets, the biggest U.S. banks are more fragile than they’ve been at any time since 2007.

Meanwhile, goods and services slosh across the globe. If there’s not enough demand for them coming from the second and third-largest economies in the world, demand in the U.S. can’t possibly make up the difference. That could mean higher unemployment here as well as elsewhere.

What’s the problem with Europe? Don’t blame it on the so-called “debt crisis.” There was no debt crisis in Britain, for example, which is now experiencing its first double-dip recession since the 1970s.

Blame it on austerity economics – the bizarre view that economic slowdowns are the products of excessive debt, so government should cut spending. Germany’s insistence on cutting public budgets has led Europe into a recession swamp.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has led the austerity charge, and other European policy makers who have followed her, have forgotten two critical lessons.

First, that the real issue isn’t debt per se but the ratio of the debt to the size of the economy.

In their haste to cut the public debt, Europeans have overlooked the denominator of the equation. By reducing public budgets they’ve removed a critical source of demand — at a time when consumers and the private sector are still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession and can’t make up the difference. The obvious result is a massive slowdown that has worsened the ratio of Europe’s debt to its total GDP, and is plunging the continent into recession.

A large debt with faster growth is preferable to a smaller debt sitting atop no growth at all. And it’s infinitely better than a smaller debt on top of a contracting economy.

The second lesson Merkel and others have overlooked is that the social costs of austerity economics can be huge. It’s one thing to cut a government budget when unemployment is low and wages are rising. But if you cut spending during a time of high unemployment and stagnant or declining wages, you’re not only causing unemployment to rise even further. You’re also removing the public services and safety nets people depend on, especially when times are tough.

And with high social costs comes political upheaval. On Monday, Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte was forced to resign. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron is on the ropes. The upcoming election in France is now a tossup – incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy might well be unseated by Francois Hollande, a Socialist. European fringe parties on the left and the right are gaining ground. Across Europe, record numbers of young people are unemployed – including many recent college graduates – and their anger and frustration is adding to the upheaval.

Social and political instability is itself a drag on growth, generating even more uncertainty about the future.

What European policy makers should do is set a target for growth and unemployment — and continue to increase government spending until those targets are met. Only then should they adopt austerity.

What are the chances that Merkel et al will see the light before Europe plunges into an even deeper recession? Approximately zero.

The danger here for the United States is clear, but there’s also a clear lesson. Republicans have become the U.S. party of Angela Merkel, demanding and getting spending cuts at the worst possible time – and ignoring the economic and social consequences.

Even if the U.S. economy (as well as President Obama’s reelection campaign) survives the global slowdown, we’re heading for a big dose of austerity economics next January – when drastic spending cuts are scheduled to kick in, as well as tax increases on the middle class. But the U.S. economy isn’t nearly healthy enough to bear this burden.

If nothing is done to reverse course in the interim, we’ll be following Europe into a double dip.

This article was originally posted on Robert Reich's blog.



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ABOUT Robert Reich

 

ROBERT B. REICH, one of the nation’s leading experts on work and the economy, is Chancellor’s Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations, most recently as secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton. Time Magazine has named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the last century. He has written thirteen books, including his latest best-seller, “Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future;” “The Work of Nations,” which has been translated into 22 languages; and his newest, an e-book, “Beyond Outrage.” His syndicated columns, television appearances, and public radio commentaries reach millions of people each week. He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine, and Chairman of the citizen’s group Common Cause. His widely-read blog can be found at www.robertreich.org.

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7 comments on "How Europe’s Double Dip Could Become America’s"

luckylongshot

April 26, 2012 8:58pm

There is a 300 pound gorilla in the room that Robert Reich overlooks and this is the role of the privately owned fractional reserve banking system in the ongoing crisis. Because there is too much debt it means that countries are having to spend too much of their incomes paying the interest on their debt. Recent reports indicate that this problem is so serious that the Rothschilds are now receiving around two thirds of the world's income as interest on the loans they have made. This is because they own the right to create money in most countries and do so out of thin air.
What this means is the rest of us have to get by on a third of what we produce and this is why there is a crisis and this is why it cannot be fixed without systemic change. The options right now are that either the financial system will collapse and the debt will be cancelled or that the right to issue money will be taken away from the Rothschilds and returned to the public. It is possible to replace the current debt based financial system with an asset based one where there is no interest and should this path be followed the crisis would be over and a new era of growth will begin.

dcholtx

April 26, 2012 8:41pm

Blad has it correct. Yes austerity is the immediate cause of the troubles. But the debt can not be ignored either.

40 years of legislation increasingly benefiting the 1% by allowing them to avoid paying the true costs of the wealth generating corporations is nothing less than a national (and global) tragedy. Generous government contracts for goods and services, loop holes in the corporate and personal tax structures, trusts used to disguise income as dividends, and the lowering rates on said dividends are all ways the 1% have used to distort the unfairness in taxation.

Perhaps the largest fraud occurred in the mid-1970's when the Unified Budget Act was passed. With this legislation, Social Security and Medicare programs were gutted. The Congress was freed to spend payroll tax monies, which should have been saved and invested, as part of the general budget. So for 40 years, all these earmarks project have been funded by the national retirement fund. Now that the money is gone (or will be within the next 20 years), we have Paul Ryan trying to do away with the whole system. Not that the redefinition of inflation hasn't changed as well, always reducing the inflation costs of "living" (food, housing, transportation) and placing more emphasis on stagnant wage growth.

A complicit media, directed by the 1%, hasn't help either.

bladtheimpailer

April 26, 2012 4:23pm

Reich has the basics correct but not the authors of European, or Nafta block austerity. All economic doctrine has political roots and visa versa. So who's calling the shots here? Is it the political leaders or some other form of national economic control?Europe is one of the last bastions of social security programs state funded, but paid for increasingly by the populace as corporations continue to avoid paying as much tax as possible. There is an international war of neo classical ideology being waged. And what better time to really go on the offensive than at a time of multi national crisises, a la Klein's shock doctrine. The goal is to turn all of the world's nations economies into something resembling China's. Not good for the 99%. For the 1% and their central and international banks there is much work to be done to achieve this goal. The instigation of a slow moving depression, so as not to alarm the whole populations at once and to be able to play one against the other, is in the play book. Merkel, Obama, Harper, Cameron etc have very little to say on the matter and are told what will be, else the velvet glove is removed from the iron fist of the financial monsters that stroll their domains.How do we know this? Because economic theory has long ago provided the answers to recovery from malfeasance bubble induced recession/depressions; as Reich pointed out governments must spend their way out of them. So why hasn't the word been put forth to do just that by the central banks and their creations the IMF, BIS, World Bank and others like Gatt etc? Because they have something else in mind.

teabagged2Death

April 26, 2012 3:42pm

We, the taxpayers, need to file Cease and Desist orders on the constant misuse of that word "austerity", which means "cut back on luxuries".

We, the belt-tighteners, are worn out from having our emergency public services cut whenever these racketeers shove that word down our collective throats, audaciously calling them "entitlememts".

Double-dip recession? The 99% of us who are now broke know that this is, in fact, the Greatest Depression ever thanks to Wall Street criminals who have looted our treasury and are hiring half of the poor people to kill off those of us who point out the root of this problem, then offer viable solutions.

Start taxing the 1% who can actually afford luxuries at the old 1950's Republican rate and file RICO charges against every bank that participated in divirsified loans.

Their mercenaries in Police Uniforms and Military Regalia should stop violating their oath to defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. Just stop those illegal phony Wars on Inanimate Objects and that will end the Double-Dip immediately.

Cease and Desist !!!

dwdallam

April 26, 2012 3:20pm

There is one thing people world-wide need to understand: We cannot expand anything infinitely, including any economy. Period.

A simply syllogism proves how capitalism, as we know it, is a cooked goose:

If capitalism necessitates that there be an ever increasing profit; then capitalism necessitates infinite expansion. (We see this on Wall street with the necessity to ever increase stock prices. )

Capitalism in its current form does necessitate infinite growth.

Ergo, capitalism in its current form is unsustainable.

That's why expanding derivatives to include the selling and buying of loans was invented in the 90s--ways to make profits by infinite investments were not sustainable. Loan derivatives were a way to fake growth--since ways to profit from real investments were in decline.

Then, when loan derivatives had been traded so many times that they were so expensive that they could no longer be packaged and sold again, the banks needed either a new way to make money, or more loans.

So, they created more loans by offering subprime loans to those who they new could never repay them. Then, in order to not only trade the new loans, but to make money on top of the trades, they offered a way to bet on the future success or failure of those loans--futures.

Then they decided that in order to give themselves a more secure investment in the loans and futures, they needed insurance to pay off if they failed. A perfect system. You can't fail! Or, if your investment does fail from default, the insurance kicks in and pays off anyway. In fact, now you can not only bet on the success of your investment, but you can loan money that has little chance of being repaid, and bet that it will fail.

Problem: This is like a pyramid scheme. And when the loan derivatives became too expensive to resell, and when people began to default, the banks wanted to cash in on their insurance.

Problem: The insurance companies were over leveraged in toxic assets--loans that would never be repaid.

Result: Infinite growth mentality results in a complete melt down of the world economy.

Post result: It's going to get worse. The economy is going to go into full failure. Except this time there won't be any government money, like there was in the 1930s, to help support work programs or soup lines, or to loan to legitimate companies who need the capital--because the government is WAY over leveraged too. In other words, it can no longer get loans from other countries, like China, in order to invest in legitimate investment.

Boris Badenov's picture
Boris Badenov

April 26, 2012 11:54am

Finally, an article that speaks the obvious truths!!!!

RobertMStahl

April 26, 2012 11:31am

Good article. Very straight forward, indeed.