The Jobs Report and the Election
President Obama’s speech to the Democratic National Convention was long on uplifting rhetoric but short on specifics for what he’ll do if reelected to reignite the American economy.
Yet today’s jobs report provides a troubling reminder that the economy is still in bad shape. Employers added only 96,000 non farm jobs in August. True, the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% from July’s 8.3%, But the size of the workforce continued to drop, according to a Labor Department report Friday.
Unfortunately for the President — and the rest of us — jobs gains have averaged only 94,000 over the last three months. That’s down from an average of 95,000 in the second quarter. And well below the average gain of 225,000 in the first quarter of the year And compared to last year, the trend is still in the wrong direction: a monthly average gain of 139,000 this year compared to last year’s average monthly gain of 153,000.
Look, I desperately want Obama to win. But the one thing his speech last night lacked was the one thing that was the most important for him to offer — a plan for how to get the economy out of the doldrums.
Last week Mitt Romney offered only the standard Republican bromides: cut taxes on the rich, cut spending on programs everyone else depends on, and deregulate. They didn’t work for George W. Bush and there’s no reason to expect they’ll work again.
But the President could have offered more than the rejoinder he did — suggesting, even in broad strokes, what he’ll do in his second term to get the economy moving again. At least he might have identified the scourge of inequality as a culprit, for example, pointing out, as he did last December, that the economy can’t advance when so much income and wealth are concentrated at the top that the vast middle class doesn’t have the purchasing power to get it back on track.
Undeniably, we have more jobs today than we did at the trough of the Great Recession in 2009. But the recovery has been anemic — and it appears to be slowing. We’re better off than we were then, but we’re not as well off as we need to be by a long shot.
This article was originally posted on Robert Reich's blog.
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29 comments on "The Jobs Report and the Election"
September 09, 2012 11:12am
First of all we have to just forget for now reducing the defict and start spending more money at least $1,250,000,000.00 + we need a massif infrastructure program reparing our roads and bridges. Build a modern High Speed Rail (HSR) meg-lev trail system . I would propose a law that says that any American business sends any part of its operation to another country they must pay those workers the same as they pay workers here in the United States, must also give them the same benifits, if the workers in the US had a union then those in the other country must have one as well. Any worker that is "displaced" the company must give therm 100% of thier pay and benifits for the first year 75% the second 50% the third and 25% the fourth even if those workers shall find other employment in that time and finaly that company still has to abide and follow US Environmental, Health and Saftey laws and regulations
September 09, 2012 8:41am
Not being a financial historian, but being aware of 20th century recessions and depressions, I'm curious to know if there has ever been a satisfactory recovery from these events without government putting people back to work. Certainly wars have done the trick in the past, but hopefully there are less traumatic ways to accomplish this. Are there serious economists out there who see any other possibility for job growth beside government stimuli? And if this is the only possible answer, then the GOP's refusal to go along with President Obama's Jobs Bill really amounts to a deliberate effort to sabotage the economy for political purposes. Would that not be called treason?
September 08, 2012 2:59pm
Robert,
You make some good points, but democrat or republican we face the same structural problem. And that problem is an excess of labor. The effects of automation combined with labor moving to "low cost" markets are going to be consistent high um-employment here in the United States.
U.S workers will never be competitive with foreign labor at $1.0/hour. Combine this with the effects of computer spreadsheets and robo-welders in auto plants there are more workers than jobs - and this will get worse over time. As the third world builds a stable infrastructure, more jobs will move off shore.
President Bush forestalled this with the help of the housing bubble. Six million jobs that could not be off shored - but that bubble burst. The rep plan to up defense spending by a third could forestall it for another 10 years - but we already spend too much of the GDP on weapons. But it did work to end the last depression under FDR.
Alternately the dems may have the beginning of a solution - public works. Each primary "public" job creates 5 or more secondary jobs at stores and factories, and gas stations etc. Each public job and secondary jobs is taxed at roughly 20%. All else being equal, the first public job in the chain is paid for by the taxes on the subsequent 5 jobs it creates - leaving a 20% surplus in the federal coffers. The velocity of money accelerates to pay for the investment in infrastructure.
And although the democrats are on the right track, congress will never let it happen. We are at a cross roads - either move together to build a better nation, or perish one job at a time.
Mark
September 08, 2012 2:05pm
Politicians can provide incentives to the private sector to help in production, distribution, research and marketing but cannot be veryneffective if they are beholden to corporate money and whims. Corporate America ships jobs where labor is cheap but wants to sell in the US because that is where most of the market is. The only way politicians can stimulate the economy is to divorce them from private funds so they can use the stick some of the times instead of always giving corporate horses the carrots which they are so accustomed to that they take it for granted. Force corporate America to either in-source outsourced jobs or should pay 50% more taxes annually per each outsource job. In addition limit their market to 50% of their historical selling in the US until they in-sources all the outsourced jobs. Slap them on outsourced jobs and again in marketing. Wham, wham... Until they learn to care about the hand that feeds corporate America.
September 08, 2012 1:30pm
Robert, please stop being diplomatic. Obama screwed up by hiring Geithner and adopting his pre-Hoover "please Wall Street at all costs" economic philosophy.
Obama has destroyed any sane economic discussion by adopting Geitherism which is the economic equivalent of Rumsfeldism or Cheneyism. When you look at economic policies, Obama is actually worse than Bush. Bush started the Detroit Bailout with a $24.9 Billion down payment and Obama almost killed the bailout. If Bush, for whom I have no praise, had not started the Detroit Bailout, it is clear that Obama would not have initiated it because he listened to Geithner.
You have to be bolder in your speaking. You have to support Keynes and explain why the government's duty is to protect the Price System (which is Adam Smith's Invisible Hand). But, Obama, the Fool, has allowed the GOP to make "regulation" into a dirty word. Without strong regulations, the Price System is at the mercy of Corrupt Fools.
There can be a sound economy if and only if the federal government is stronger than business so that the Feds can regulate the economic sphere in order to protect the Price System from distortions. It is the exact opposite of Grover Norquist, but Obama is too much an effete sissy to take on Norquist.
Obama does not deserve another term, but the country does not merit Mitty and Mr. Abs.
September 08, 2012 9:14pm
Unfortunately, you are correct about this country's predicament. Obama is not competent to be president, so it follows that he doesn't deserve another term. But neither America nor humanity in general "deserves" Mitt the Shit and his truly Frankenstein monster sidekick.
September 08, 2012 1:34pm
Robert,
You're one of my favorite thinkers, but I believe you are doing a disservice to your reader anytime you don't offer practical, actionable advice on the problems you criticize. If the Republicans are stonewalling and sandbagging Democrats' solutions, we must first establish that we had the solutions. ;-)
We know that raising revenue through taxes to fund the return of public service employees and teachers to work, and to finance infrastructure construction would be part of the solution. Cutting out unnecessary wars, wasted subsidies and major tax loop-holes, frees up dollars for job creation. What other ideas do you recommend to put the middle and lower classes back to work and increase cash flow in the economy in the immediate future? gw
September 09, 2012 5:03am
get rid of the filibuster
September 08, 2012 12:57pm
I don't get how the failure of "job creators' failing to create jobs is any of Obama's fault--he approved the extension of their Dubya-era tax cuts. The "job creators" have failed--it's time to let them go. Job creators, YOU'RE FIRED! Nothing serves as better proof of tax cut failure than this does.
September 08, 2012 10:54am
The real question is what if we working class are worst off two years from now
What would either party do about that. We dont want to become whores like our politicians. Neither party will say lets start a state run banking system for the benifit of the citizens or lets get money for our safety net by exspanding jobs
and selling off oil in north dakota and montana to eliminate debt to the chinese
(by the way how does that debt get paid? how do they do that? who keeps track of that? and what happened to the money the banks paid back ? who has that money or did it go back to the chinese? So are we going to be better off in two years and what will you do about it how shitty does it have to get before some clean fresh new ideas bring us back to a decent country to live in for all of us.
Just look at the bitch in Australia who said that African workers will work for two bucks a day not ginsbucks but two dollars whattt an insult she is not in touch with every day people and unfortunately neither are both parties.
September 08, 2012 10:43am
Reading liberal speak is one of my new favorite hobbies! Hysterical!
1) the jobless rate only fell because nearly 200,000 Americans have given up looking and obama deducts those no longer looking from his calculation of unemployed. 2) Obama spent billions bombing Libya in his own private war without asking Congress to give him that authority- as Bush did(recall please that democrats by the score voted yes on his request) nor the U.N. either, and he continues to kill people in a number of countries with Drones nearly daily without any permission from Congress or the courts or the u.n.- and I guess you think that is free as well? Low taxes, low regulation and the freedom that people enjoy to keep and benefit from their own labor is what built this great nation. Trickle down built this economy and pulled more people out of poverty and mind numbing government assistance or slavery than any system in history. This nonsense that trickle down - which is a disparaging term for capitalism works- russia ran your experiment and dissolved into poverty, and starvation and deary hopeless lives- but Reich wants to run the experiment again at huge cost to Americans.
Now the banks - the new evil money monsters for you people. The banks were forced by Dodd, Barney, Clinton, and originally Carter to execute their notion of socially responsible mortgage lending as they believed that only letting people with a down payment, job, solid credit rating and verifieable income buy houses was mean spirited and discriminatory. So they implemented this idea of egalitarian banking where every man- actually any man or women could get a loan to buy a house. In fact they made rules that would trigger huge fines for banks not handing out loans like free condoms and we predictably ended up with a massive inflation of home prices followed by even more massive home value collapse. Obama today is moving against his old friends Bank of America to fine them $500. Million for not meeting his socially acceptable level of ghetto home loans even still- today. They even had the government mortgage wholesalers lower their standards so that today they are bankrupt.
Here is the problem you liberals have- your plan of cradle to grave government largresse just never works and economies need to lift themselves up organically by business growth and the creation of new businesses not through government spending in adding supports to bridges.
Did you notice that once China became essentially brutally capitalistic their economy exploded? Millions of Chinese have jobs, good food, better housing and they have all the hope that Obama keeps talking about from the change he mentions which was more capitalism and more trickle down economics.
The economy isn't improving simply because Obama has done nothing to allow it to truly move back to a growth status- the capitalist system here was strong enough to create a recovery from the worst of the recession but is now stalled due to obama's refusal to allow production of oil, his refusal to allow businesses to operate with less endless red tape and rules and the confusion over tax rules which stalls investment.
Thatcher summed it up" eventually you will run out of other people's money"
Europe ran this experiment for you as well and there will be massive human suffering and emotional trauma and finally social upheavel when their economies implode from running Reich's childish economic beliefs- but my liberal friends live on i their delusional world. Promising people free stuff may win elections for goofs like Obama but in the real world massive government social engineering and redistribution of wealth will always eventually result in disaster.
Or more simply - there really is no free lunch.
September 09, 2012 5:06am
is your rant all in one sentence?
September 08, 2012 5:52pm
Atlas, you spend a lot of time typing your "greed is good" propaganda, and what is your point? Does it satisfy your ego to come here and look down your nose at people whose perspective is entirely different than yours?
Trickle down has never worked. "Voodoo economics," as it was famously labeled by the senior Bush may have created a few more millionaires, and that was the extent of the "Reagan economic miracle." I'm not talking spin. The government's own statistics clearly show that during Reagan's 8 years the rich got richer, the middle class lost ground, and the poor got poorer (and more numerous).
And during W's disastrous 8 years, the government statistics show the same result: the rich got richer, the middle class lost ground, and the poor got poorer.
Maybe, to you, this demonstrates that "trickle-down" works, but not for the overwhelming majority of Americans, people who have to work for a living.
Trickle-down is thoroughly discredited and you know it. It has never been shown to work for this country. During the Clinton years, with more regulation and more taxation on the rich and the corporations, there was more expansion of the economy and more jobs were created.
And now, after a decade of tax holidays for the rich and big business, we seem to be woefully short of jobs these days, and how is that, if trickle-down is such a success?
The Right's advice to Americans: choose rich people for your parents, and then you can multiply the wealth and boast of how successful you are, and righteously proclaim "there's no free lunch." (Such was the way of shallow Willard, and his ugly big-mouthed supporter, Donald Trump.)
There are fewer jobs available today because the Tea Party Republicans controlling the House have either ignored or rejected Obama's proposals to improve the economy. They've sat on his Jobs proposal for at least a year. And their agenda has been solely to make Obama a one-term president. With all the problems facing the country, the Tea Partier Congress voted to repeal "Obamacare" more than 30 times, when they knew damned well there was no chance the Senate would approve it. It was just political theater, at the taxpayer's expense.
Yes, Atlas, creating jobs helps build the economy, because it is the middle class spending money that drives the economy, not rich parasites sitting on their wealth in gated communities or hidden fortresses.
As an apologist for Voodoo Economics you're very prolific. Well, American workers have been "trickled on" for too long, and all it's done is made American inequality a national shame and disgrace.
And never forget, Atlas, that it was a conservative Republican MBA president who spent money like it was going out of style, actually enlarged government, trampled on the Constitution, and gave us the largest trade and budget deficits in a century, and wrecked our economy. Would you now advise us to hire another conservative Republican MBA (Mitt) who would do the same thing, and even more, since the lyin' R brothers want to "out-Bush" Bush?
September 08, 2012 1:52pm
A lengthy essay to say you believe the Republican propaganda myth. Give us all the money and we'll take care of you. LOL Read a little history about building the greatest economy in the world - the one mostly built since the turn of the century when Ford discovered he could sell more cars by paying his employees enough to buy one - which was not his idea by the way. No one wants to take anything away from the importance of business. But it's not the only thing that's important, which is what we're arguing over.
And about running out of money - ironically that's exactly what happended. The 99% didn't have enough eventually to pay the bills. This isn't Monopoly where the winner takes all and ends the game. At least for 99% of us.
September 08, 2012 10:17am
Republicans, it appears, are really bad for the economy. That seems their weakest demon, which they really have no philosophical resources to oppose. By nature "conservatives" and Republicans want to keep wealth in the hands of the few but that is self-destructive as regards any kind of capitalistic economy. Republicans are in a collision course with an economic system -- free market, capitalism, free enterprise, private property or whatever it is called -- that they pretend to support but really do not agree with at all.
September 08, 2012 10:03am
"But the size of the workforce continued to drop" So what. As technology and productivity improve, why should we work? It seems like we can produce everything we need. Even with 8.1% of the population not working. What does "not working" even mean? Why not just let people work at whatever they like to work at, without calling it "employment"? I do not understand it. We are whipping everyone, saying "you must work."
Why? In order to oppress them!!!! Why work? We work so that the majority can drool over our prostrate bodies, and goad us on to ever greater "glory." But as Ernest Hemingway said about war, there is none. There isn't any glory there. Why do say "I work," when you do something totally useless and silly? You aren't working. You are participating in a system that keeps everyone enslaved.
September 08, 2012 10:49am
Thank you for being an honest delusional liberal . You just don't want to work to pay for your own food and shelter and in your case $1500 mountain bike with GPS road navigatiom unit. You want the other people to work while you play and retire to a life of leisure. You should just do like millions of other Americans have done - get a government job- like Reich - best of all - a job as a college professor. Heck dogs have parasites and I suppose there really is no reason our economy and society should not have a few professional parasites like yourself.
September 08, 2012 10:09am
JOBS REPORT & THE ELECTION: Month after month we all crowd around the TV set awaiting news of the employment trend, i.e., "Up" or "Down," all the while ignoring the most fundamental issue relating to employment numbers. Businesses that do not have access to financing cannot expand operations, and therefore, will not hire workers. The President can't merely wish jobs into existence. Job creation is directly related to the demand for goods/services and to supply of the financing necessary to deliver on this demand, opening new jobs positions. The banks were bailed-out. Period! Instead of doing the "right thing," making loans to entrepreneurs {Small Businesses} they chose, instead, to park the bail-out money in the bond market. While that action may have served to guarantee minimal revenue in the form of the interest payments collected, it does nothing to stimulate activity in the larger economy. I personally have been trying to open a business for the last 4 years. I have incorporated in a tax haven {Nevada} and have religiously filed my paper-work on time, have developed a new product prototype, {or rather an improvement on existing products} but could not get a loan. I have had to rely solely on savings from my job {despite two lay-offs of 18 months and 12 months respectively}. Inspite of the uncertainty engendered by this state-of-affairs, I was able to save enough to cover the cost of my start-up... but it has taken nearly 5 years! Lack of access to capital has been the biggest drag on the economy that we live in. The "Tax Rate" has absolutely NOTHING to do with my decision to go into business, my ability to R & D, nor the reasons why capital cannot be accessed to speed the process along. So much for the BOGUS argument about high taxes causing would-be small businesses not to go into business. That argument is complete and total B.S!!! Neither do regulations have anything to do with my not being able to move at a faster pace. The argument put forth about some future, phantom, regulatory impact serving to discourage the starting of Small Businesses is also pure B.S!!! A guy who can be so easily discouraged was never a "Businessman" in the first place. So, we are back to the jobs report and what it means to the election. Given the fact that 8.5 million jobs were lost under the 8 years of the Bush administration... I honestly don't understand how an argument can be made that since there were "ONLY" 94,000 jobs created last month, that is somehow a signal that we should abandon the path of job creation we are now on, and have been moving on under President Obama, and run back to the path of total job destruction, to the tune of 800,000 jobs a month, 800,000 jobs/month!!! which we are moving away from, can possibly make any sense to anyone who is not completely blinded by bias in favor of a republican agenda, no matter how foolish, impertinent, and destructive. The banks are not lending to business. Therefore business cannot expand. Giving billionaires another tax-cut will not reverse this trend, but will encourage those billionaires to continue investing off-shore, i.e., Singapore, China, Brazil, anywhere but the USA. How long before we admit this and move forward??? This is why the jobs trend is so sluggish.
September 08, 2012 11:08am
Wat till your business starts to make a little profit and you find a lot of thst profit is taxed away- lets see if you dont think those dollars could have been invested in your business. Banks only make and should only make collateral loans- they are not suppose to make risk equit loans. They are not suppose to make mortgage loans to people with no down payment, no income and no collateral. They do not get a part of your business if it becomes the next Apple- thry only get a few percent interest as profit. Banks dont have the prospectvof huge gains on some loans to offset losses on loans. If you dont have collateral to get working capital from a bank then you need to find equit investors and you will have to sell some of your ownership in the business to obtain that capital. So you think America owes you a bank loan to finance your business with no collapsable assets to protect the bank? Really? The banks job is to protect its shareholders and depositors -- not be a venture capital funding organizations. You need to call Bain Capital- and perhaps Romney will bravely help finance your company - but Democrats think Bain Capital type groups are evil-- the continuing naive dribble from the writers and posters on this website is just beyond comprehension. Heh- no capital required to build a community organizer company I hear.
September 08, 2012 10:33am
Amazingly insightful, as only a true entrepreneur can be. Well said, and good luck in your business.
September 08, 2012 11:10am
This guy should not risk any of his time or savings- he clearly doesn't understand business and should get a job in the government.
September 08, 2012 10:11am
You still kind of believe in the system, don't you?
September 08, 2012 10:49am
What system has worked better?
September 08, 2012 9:29am
I am better off that I was four years ago because my retirement funds have increased, my health insurance through my job has not increased at the 17% rate it was before, and I sleep better knowing that President Obama will not get us into another war that will cost us another trillion dollars.
The Bush government left us in shambles, job wise and debt wise, and the president has had no help in passing bills such as: the jobs bills, the emigration bill, and a host of other initiatives designed to pump up more money into the economy to create jobs.
So I do not understand why people do not recognize that to undo what we were left with under Bush, will take decades.
September 08, 2012 10:14am
You're more of an optimist, aren't you?
September 08, 2012 9:19am
Am I better off today than I was four years ago?
Four years ago, near the end of 8 years of Republican dominance, the Dow was headed from over 14000 to under 7000, my 401K was cut to less than of what it was, the banks, the auto industry and what's left of America's manufacturing base were headed toward oblivion. The shenanigans of the "free market" gurus had brought US to the brink of global depression.
Like most of US in the working class I've struggled through tiny or non existent pay raises and layoffs. But I'm way better off than I was four years ago.
I just can't understand why Romney would even ask the question. Did he really think that we would forget?
September 08, 2012 10:23am
They were so poor anyway that it does not matter. Most of the conservative voters are rural persons who either own property or simply live with only enough for a home in a trailer. And there are some who used the economy to get rich on the stock markets, etc. Scammers.
The working class as such is getting smaller. Did you not notice this? And they (the wealthy, the conservatives and so forth, even the wealthy liberals) want the working persons like you to get even weaker and smaller. Did you not notice? Anyway I guess I am saying: if you have nothing anyways, you might as well vote for whomever you want to, it does not make any difference. If you have everything, you would vote Republican.
September 08, 2012 10:55am
The wealth of the country is not a finite amount of dollars. Because one group does better another group does not do worse. You are not owed anything because you exist in this country- this country only owes you equal opportunity not equal outcome.
September 09, 2012 10:31am
I have found in following the comments string in various on- line publications that certain very willfully and self important people will overload the page with their point of view - over, and over, and over. This can go on until almost everyone loses interest. It is enough already Atlas.... I just shrugged. I got it, as uncomplicated as it is.