Daniel Gros
Published: Sunday 6 November 2011
“At this point, the common currency can be saved only if systemically important countries – namely, Italy and Spain – take concerted action to demonstrate that they are different from Greece.”

The Revolt of the Debtors

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Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s call to hold a referendum on the rescue package agreed at the eurozone summit in late October has profound implications for European governance. It may also determine the future of the euro.

Less than one week before Papandreou dropped his bombshell, eurozone leaders had spoken unequivocally: “The introduction of the European Semester has fundamentally changed the way our fiscal and economic policies are coordinated at European level, with co-ordination at EU level now taking place before national decisions are taken.” Simply put, pan-eurozone financial governance had supposedly won the day.

Technically, Papandreou’s proposed referendum is not directly about fiscal or economic policy, but it is a decision that will have huge economic ramifications for the eurozone. Despite that, it was taken without any coordination with other eurozone leaders. Moreover, if Greece’s voters reject the deal that has just been proposed to them, the outcome might foreclose any further coordination on the country’s debt problems with the European Union. Greece would sink or swim on its own.

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So, only days after the eurozone’s heads of state and government congratulated themselves on their summit success, the concept of coordination has been shown to be meaningless for the one country where coordination matters most. Papandreou’s move also exposes the fatal flaw of grand plans for a political or fiscal union to support the euro: the “people,” not governments, remain the real sovereign. Governments may sign treaties and make solemn commitments to subordinate their fiscal policy to the wishes of the EU as a whole (or to be more precise, to the wishes of Germany and the European Central Bank); but, in the end, the people may reject any adjustment program that “Brussels” (meaning Berlin and Frankfurt) might want to impose.

The EU remains a collection of sovereign states, and it therefore cannot send an army or a police force to enforce its pacts or collect debt. Any country can leave the EU – and, of course, the eurozone – when the burden of its obligations becomes too onerous. Until now, it had been assumed that the cost of exit would be so high that no country would consider it. This no longer seems to be the case – or so the Greeks, at least, seem to believe.

This also implies that Eurobonds will never constitute the silver bullet that some had hoped would solve Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. As long as member states remain fully sovereign, investors cannot be assured that if the eurozone breaks up, some states will not simply refuse to pay – or will not refuse to pay for the others.

With popular resistance to paying for profligate southern Europeans rising in Germany and Holland, governments there might be forced to ask their people whether they want to pay the huge costs implied by their commitments to bail out eurozone members that are unwilling or unable to pay. That is why the bonds issued by the eurozone’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, are trading at a substantial premium relative to German debt, while efforts by Klaus Regling, the EFSF’s head, to convince China, Japan, and other Asians to buy the bonds have gotten nowhere.

The broader message of the Greek move is that “coordination” has so far been a code word for almost total control by creditors (sometimes together with the ECB). The attempt to impose a benevolent creditors’ dictatorship is now being met by a debtors’ revolt. Financial markets have reacted so strongly because investors now comprehend that “sovereign debt” is the debt of a sovereign that can simply decide not to pay.

Holders of bonds of the eurozone’s member states have now been put on notice that, when the going gets tough, the real sovereign, “We, the people,” might be asked whether they actually want to pay. And the answer might very well be an emphatic “no,” as opinion polls in Greece and the experience of Iceland (whose population twice voted down deals agreed by the Icelandic government) suggest is likely.

Nobody can know at this point whether Portugal or Italy might be the next stops on this road of resistance. The result, however, is quite predictable: soaring risk premia throughout the periphery.

Papandreou’s decision to call a referendum in Greece could thus mean the beginning of the endgame for the euro. At this point, the common currency can be saved only if systemically important countries – namely, Italy and Spain – take concerted action to demonstrate that they are different from Greece.

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ABOUT Daniel Gros

Daniel Gros is Director of the Center for European Policy Studies.

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4 comments on "The Revolt of the Debtors"

ocolzrg

Gabriela Roibu

November 08, 2011 10:59am

99% of the Greeks did not create the problem!

They say Greeks don't pay taxes!? Some do some don't but the average salary for middle and low pay is around 500 $ US so taxing that doesn't mean too much!!
Fiat money IMF indebtedness etc. A couple of months after Ceausescu payed all the Loans from IMF and World Bank etc claiming independence from this world's usury system he was executed by a group of conspirators!?!

Thomas Fisher

November 07, 2011 12:04pm

Subservient to concealed totalitarianism is the true question. The Trojan Horse concealed as a financial system of fiat currencies that originate as a issue of debt combined with the fact that in it's basic structure there is no additional currency created sufficient to service the interest on the debt. A gross failure in that only the grantor of the debt can be the only winner in the transaction. Absolute fraud. No just court of law could possibly enforce such a contract, of course assuming that there just might be such a court. It is crucial to have no mistakes on this matter. I am convinced that the ulterior motive has "NOT" been about simply having all money it has been about the making of slaves. Total slavery is what Global Corporatism is about, forever! Please see "Money as Debt I & II. Download it & watch it numerous times. Bow not before Caesar.
A friend
Tom
NEWS: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-07/london-bankers-see-wealth-ga...

fbuser24

November 06, 2011 2:38pm

. . . According to the 2008 official Pentagon inventory of our military bases around the world, our empire consists of 865 facilities in more than 40 countries and overseas U.S. territories.
A Worldwide takeover – to what end is the question. . .
People have been getting up and going to work / that’s what they do / now all of a sudden there is no money ??
In the morning / afternoon / evening / night – you get up and go to work . . .
No money – but you’re not told to stay home and they do not want you to stay home – go – to – work . . . . a decade of doing the same job?? Now overnight a cut in pay and benefits ?? go to work. . .
. the job is the same -.- it hasn’t changed -.- same tasks -.- same hours….
You wake up – everything is now different ?? How -.- Who controls it ?? WHY ??
.Not Yesterday . . no words of total doom. . . less pay ! less benefits !
More expenses !
. . . The EURO was about security – economic security – stability . . .
STABILITY ?.?.? Your Job ?.?.? Economic Security ?.?.? - Less Pay -.- Less Benefits ?.?.?
So What Is The End ?.? The Governments around the world spend the same -.- pat themselves on their backs -.- same pay -.- same benefits -.- same perks. . . . not one politician anywhere in the world goes without healthcare . . .
BIG MONEY . . . Sports ( baseball – football – basketball ). . . Entertainment . . . (Broadway – Movies – Rock-n-Roll – live shows )
SPACE PROGRAM . . . no cuts
MILITARY SPENDING . . . no cuts
WAR. . . no cuts . . PEACE- nope, no cuts there….
Wall Street – no cuts
Banks – no cuts
Secrets – no cuts there. . .
. Secrecy Act – no cuts
/ maybe more
POLITICIANS -.- no cuts in benefits – pay – perks – healthcare
THE RICH ARE GETTING RICHER AT THE EXPENSE OF THE PEOPLE ?.?.?.?./
A World Takeover ?.?.? - to what end is the QUESTION
Prime Minister George Papandreou only one willing to let the people decide . . . . the dark ages - slavery - no rights. . . .

But the world will forgive (haircut) half the debt ?.? at an interest rate of ????
HOW MUCH OF THE DEBT IS REAL -.- I LISTEN TO THIS AND THAT - WARREN BUFFET/ MICHAEL BLOOMBERG'S PLEDGES TO GIVE HALF THEIR MONEY AWAY ( BLOOMBERG LAYS-OFF 720 TEACHERS AIDES)
IF TRUE IT WOULD AFFECT INFLATIION -.- BUT FOOD PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE. . . I CAN ASSUME -.- ALL LIES . . . . . ATHENS... OR... WASHINGTON . . . . A WHOLE BUNCH OF LIES
. . . . .
. . .
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s
A MAN AMONG WIMPS -.- allowing the people to decide
you will not stop me
you will not hurt me
I will do the very best I can
Your Greed - - - the american spirit - BRING IT ON -.- YOU WIL LOSE -.- I WILL NOT BOW DOWN TO YOU