The Sequester is President Obama’s Fault
Now that we are counting up the days of the sequester instead of counting down, it would be a good time to cast blame. And my candidate is President Obama.
I’m not blaming Obama for the reasons that Bob Woodward came up with in his fantasyland. I am blaming President Obama and his administration for trying to be cute and clever rather than telling the public the truth about the economic crisis. The result is that the vast majority of the public, and virtually all of the reporters and pundits who deal with budget issues, does not have any clue about where the deficit came from and why it is a virtue rather than a problem.
The basic story is incredibly simple. Demand from the private sector collapsed when the housing bubble burst. We lost $600 billion in annual demand due to residential construction falling through the floor. We will not return to normal levels of construction until the vacancy rates return to normal levels. Vacancy rates are still near post-bubble record highs.
We also lost close to $500 billion in annual consumption spending due to the loss of the $8 trillion in housing-bubble-generated equity that was driving this consumption. This demand will also not come back.
This creates a gap in annual demand of more than $1 trillion. The stimulus, which boosted demand by roughly $300 billion a year in 2009 and 2010, helped to fill part of this gap, but was nowhere near big enough. Furthermore, stimulus spending fell off quickly in 2011 and the stimulus is now pretty much gone altogether. This means that we are still faced with a huge hole in private sector spending.
We know the Republicans love the Job Creators and President Obama has gone out of his way to show his love also. But in the real world, investment in equipment and software has never been much above its current share of GDP except in the days of the dot.com bubble. This means that unless we drug investors so that they are willing to throw hundreds of billions of dollars into the stock of worthless companies, we are unlikely to see any substantial rise in investment.
As a result we are stuck with an economy that is mired well below full employment. President Obama’s top economic advisers from his first term all claim that they understood this point. But they said that they could not get a bigger stimulus package through Congress.
That assessment may well be true, but the real issue is what President Obama did after the stimulus package passed. He could have told the country the truth. He could have said what all his advisers claim they told him at the time: the stimulus was not large enough and we would likely need more. He could have used his presidency to explain basic economics to the public and the reporters who cover budget issues.
He could have told them that we need large deficits to fill the hole in demand that was created by the collapse in private sector spending. He could have shown them colorful graphs that beat them over the head with the point that there was very little room for investment to expand even under the best of circumstances.
He could have also explained that consumers would not go back to their bubble levels of consumption since the wealth that had supported this consumption had disappeared with the collapse of the bubble. The public would likely understand this point since most homeowners had themselves lost large amounts of equity and understood that they were much poorer as a result of the collapse of the bubble.
In this context the only choice in the near term is between larger budget deficits and higher unemployment. The people who clamored for cuts in government spending and lower deficits are in fact clamoring to throw people out of work and slow growth.
We will never know if President Obama could have garnered support for more stimulus and larger deficits if he had used his office to pound home basic principles of economics to the public and the media. But we do know the route he chose failed.
He apparently thought the best route to get more stimulus was to convince the deficit hawks that he was one of them. He proudly announced the need to pivot to deficit reduction after the passage of the stimulus and then appointed two deficit hawks, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, to head a deficit commission.
This set the ball rolling for the obsession with deficit reduction that has dominated the nation’s politics for the last three years. Instead of talking about the 9 million jobs deficit the economy faces, we have the leadership of both parties in Congress arguing over the debt-to-GDP ratios that we will face in 2023.
This would be comical if lives were not being ruined by the charade. The unemployed workers and their families did not do anything wrong, the people running the economy did.
Now the sequester comes along throwing more people out of work, worsening the quality of a wide range of government services and denying hundreds of thousands of people benefits they need. Yes, this is really stupid policy and the Republicans deserve a huge amount of blame in this picture.
But it was President Obama who decided to play deficit reduction games rather than being truthful about the state of the economy. There was no reason to expect better from the Republicans in Congress, we had reason to hope that President Obama would act responsibly.
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11 comments on "The Sequester is President Obama’s Fault"
March 06, 2013 10:11am
To all the left over Clinton-Hater and Obama- Failure Wishful Thinkers , folks you need to listen to reason and stop the non-sense Foolishness...The reason we are looking at the total Economic Collapse of the USA of America is because Greedy Capitalism, Corruption , Robbing and Cheating the System and the Poor by using the Loop Holes, Off Shore Banking and shipping Jobs for Slavery wages to foreign Countries plus two Wars paid by Credit Card ect. This practice has been the principal road that drove us into the Ditch and the awful Train Wreck we are witnessing now !!! Until the Civil War of words and posturing has been confined and halted, know that no strategy will keep America's bridges and Empire from a total Collapse !!! How Low can the USA fall before the people Come to realising that resistance against doing the intelligent and right things for the people by the people will not lead to America's Staying- Power..
March 05, 2013 6:53pm
Baker is correct. But so was Woodward. Two aspects of the same thing. Obama prefers easy cuteness and lies to more difficult relevance and truth. So, as Baker notes, Obama didn't use his bully pulpit to be straight on why the economy is tanking; and, as Woodward reported, Obama also couldn't fess up to having been the guy who suggested that, as the needed doomsday default element (to get Congress to act) in the debt-limit agreement, we could as well use a sequester.
March 05, 2013 1:36pm
Disagree. Under the circumstances we have, President Obama would have been so soundly trashed for saying what we all know, anyway, that there wouldn't have been a chance of legitimately addressing these issues. The fault rests with Democrats in Congress, who have so consistently failed to speak up on the administration's behalf -- as legislators are supposed to do! The fault rests with us as well; Obama said since the time of his first campaign that nothing could be accomplished if the people didn't get to their feet and make it happen. That's just reality. A good share of the blame goes to today's liberal/progressive media, which has largely maintained the right-wing BS of the Clinton admin., particularly on economic/social issues. President Obama actually has had more successes than seems possible under these circumstances, not only in what he has been able to accomplish, but largely in what he has had the strength and integrity to block. When Clinton was in the same situation, he agreed to throw the poor off the cliff to get a budget agreement. President Obama has been unwilling to sacrifice any Americans to meet rt. wing blackmail demands.
March 06, 2013 3:23am
A more perceptive analysis is to be found in Gabriel Kolko's book "MAIN
CURRENTS OF MODERN AMERICAN HISTORY". Kolko's perceptions
are often uncomfortable both for liberals and "progressives" as well as
others. It is so much more confortable to believe in the myths liberals
have built up as doctrine. It is disconcertaing to recognize that the problems of consumption were solved not by FDR but by war.
March 06, 2013 4:21pm
The economy recovered because of FDR's spending actions AND the spending for the War.
March 05, 2013 12:04pm
Obama did all of us a grave disservice when he went on nationwide TV and compared the U.S. budget to a households checkbook. Many top economists argued forcefully not to do this. They aren't remotely related. But he, as president, firmly seated that notion in the minds of the citizenry. Since then, the Republicans mantra that the sky is falling and we have to control the deficit - one to which they greatly contributed but fail to mention that point - is finding fertile ground to blossom. Once again a terrible failing of leadership by Mr. Obama. His ability to lead has become more and more questionable throughout his tenure, unfortunately. From the very first days when he refused to get Pelosi and pals to stop with the earmarks - that they'd all campaigned on getting rid of - to today, when he tried to pump up the 'disaster' that would befall us come midnight on March 1. The man is NOT a good leader. Unfortunately, he doesn't get that. I'm sure if he read this, he'd list reasons why I'm wrong, instead of taking it under advisement. That's his arrogance and his Achilles heel. The Republicans have been playing him like a fiddle and having their way with him over and over, but he still doesn't get that it's HIM. He announces he's going to save us all from a "fiscal cliff" - admonishing how much we have to tighten our belts - while Biden, with his knowledge, gives aways billions in corporate subsidies and tax breaks to the wealthy. I frequently wonder that he thinks the majority of Americans are so stupid that we don't see his smoke and mirrors. And this is from a woman who voted for him.... His naiveté and arrogance are outrageous and damaging to all - including him. He just never understood that the Republicans didn't vote him in, don't like him, and never will. Good Lord, until Obama, they were still on an active Clinton-hate campaign! What does it take for Obama to get it? Unfortunately, I doubt we'll ever know. His administration and this congress are a train wreck. I submit that its time for federal term-limits. Couldn't do any more damage than is happening now with "tenured" members...
March 05, 2013 1:41pm
The "family checkbook" comparison has actually been a political staple at least since the 1980s. The general public requires simplicity, and this comparison is intended only to point out that there are X number of dollars and X expenses that must be met. The public needs to be involved to determine how that finite amount of money can most appropriately be used.
March 05, 2013 11:11am
I like many things about President Obama, but Mr. Baker is right. Obama does not seem to understand what the people don't understand. They listen to a Republican soundbite and decide, Oh, that must be true. Deficits will drown us and we have to do everything we can to shrink the deficit, even if it means national suicide.
Businesses DO NOT create jobs, that's a myth. Businesses use people to the exact extent that they must, nothing more. They pay them the lowest salary they can get away with, and wouldn't provide benefits if they didn't have to.
That's business, and we get that. But let's not call them job creators. If they were, they would have hireed when they got the massive tax cuts, and now when profits are historically high. Yet, they continue to lay off because they can.
Businesses will hire again when CUSTOMERS come back, and not one minute before. So, why are they working so hard to kill off the customers? It's a real head scratcher.
Baker is right, Obama helped push people into the mindset that a deficit is the worst thing that could happen to this country. Where are his charts and his arguments? We know from history (like WWII) that it's spending, not austerity, that has gotten us out of every downturn so far. Obama knows this, so where is he?
March 05, 2013 10:36am
We need to get back to the problem at hand, which is income inequality. We need a tax code that reaches into the incomes of all people. We need to to follow the great leadership of one of our greatest presidents. FDR was a man of the people, and wasn't afraid to tax the whole country on a progressive scale. From 1936 thru 1941 we had 33 tax brackets in order to reach all range of income. These brackets ranged from 4% for all income up to $64K, all the way up to a Top Marginal Rate of 79% for income over $79Million. Now this is "Fair & Balanced". The government has to tax the people making all the money. The government has to pay their bills. The government has to rebuild the infrastructure. The government has to raise the minimum wage. The government has to put people to work and lower the unemployment rate. I believe the government should start a peace corps type of program where they put millions to work (at minimum wage) in this country and other countries, to help the poor and struggling people of the world. The only way to do any of these things is to tax the rich like FDR did in the late 30's in order to bring us out of the Great Depression. Income is income and Capitol Gains should be taxed just like any other income. God Bless the Middle Class and All Those Fighting to get back into it.
March 05, 2013 1:00pm
I strongly agree with ADRIENNEB and BELLEVILLE'S comments on this subject. The housing bubble-burst in 2008 was preceded by 28 years of wealth transfer via (banking deregulation and) huge tax cuts for the well-off and wealthy following Reagan's election in 1980. When the unregulated mortgage derivatives-bubble burst in 2008 it was the non-rich in the millions who lost their jobs, homes, savings and health insurance. The wealthy including the banksters now have more wealth, and a much larger share of the total, than they did prior to the bubble burst. And that vast amount and royal share is still growing. Obama's duplicitous repeal of the Bush cuts on incomes over $400K preserves TWO THIRDS of Reagan's huge tax-cut gift to the wealthy. Further, their off-shored tax-dodging trillions are still growing by billions daily. In the meantime many millions of non-elite remain unemployed, greatly under-employed, uninsured, and doomed to poverty. To dupe them, Obama weakly proposes to increase the minimum wage to a level that would not even equal that for 1968 when adjusted for inflation. Further, middle and low-income households are now paying considerably higher portions of their incomes in sales, property, utility and other taxes and user fees. In short, the 99% are being economically slaughtered by the wealthy and the Repub-Dem duopoly they control. We needed an FDR. What we have is Obama, feeding us hope-couched lies while leading us to slaughter.
March 05, 2013 10:14am
The new game in politics is brinksmanship. Both parties and all individuals involved are complicit. None show any seeming concern for the electorate. Do note there will be a "solution" to this latest "crisis" which will merely push back some arbitrary deadline for a year or so, at which time the performance will be repeated. The level of anxiety in America, meanwhile, will be used to rush some bad legislation through which will further curb the rights of individual Americans. And of course, those who are wealthy enough to employ lobbyists pay no attention. None of this effects them in the slightest, though the outcome will likely help them become wealthier.