With Harris pick, Biden reaches out to young Black Americans

    Harris joining up with Biden may have made the Democratic ticket more attractive to younger Black Americans, who now comprise what we define as a critical set of swing voters.

    SOURCEThe Conversation

    With his choice of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, Joe Biden may have helped bring young Black Americans to his side on Election Day.

    Only 47% of those Black Americans under 30 years old that we surveyed recently planned to vote for Biden, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee. But by picking Harris, a Black running mate, support for Biden jumps to 73% in this age group, which is a significant increase though still lower than other age groups.

    Harris joining up with Biden may have made the Democratic ticket more attractive to younger Black Americans, who now comprise what we define as a critical set of swing voters.

    But these aren’t your grandparents’ swing voters.

    Senator Kamala Harris
    Sen. Kamala Harris, arriving at the U.S. Capitol for the Senate impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump, on January 31, 2020. Mark Wilson/Getty Images

    No longer working-class whites

    Most political analysts define “swing voters” as those who swing their support from one party to the other between election cycles—determining winners and losers in the process.

    According to this conventional wisdom, the “swingiest” voters are working-class whites in the Midwest, who supposedly hold the keys to the White House.

    Meanwhile, by contrast, pundits often portray Black Americans as an undifferentiated mass—loyal Democrat-supporting foot soldiers who will execute their mission for The Team on Tuesday as long as some preacher provides the right marching orders on Sunday.

    If these depictions have not already expired, they are certainly growing stale. Having studied electoral trends for decades, we can tell you that those undecided voters of the past are an endangered species—in the Midwest and elsewhere. These days, the only choice that most Americans make—indeed, the choice that typically “swings” the election outcome—is whether to vote at all.

    That brings us to the characterization of Black Americans as Democratic loyalists.

    Our new survey of 1,215 African Americans in battleground states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – reveals that while those over 60 remain among the most reliable of Democratic voters, and those between 40-59 are still pretty locked in as well, those under 30 (whom we oversampled to comprise half of our sample) are anything but.

    Bill Clinton and Al Gore at a Black Church service during the 1992 presidential campaign.
    Black church members are seen as key to a candidate’s election victory; here, Governor Bill Clinton and Senator Al Gore attend service at the Olivet Baptist Church in Cleveland, Ohio during the Clinton-Gore 1992 campaign. Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Not sold on Biden

    Cathy Cohen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago who studies Black youths’ political views, summed up this attitude in a recent podcast: “They’ve seen the election of Black mayors, they’ve seen the election of the first Black president, and they’ve also seen that their lives have not changed.”

    Not sold on voting

    These young Black Americans may well sit things out in November, just as many of them did in 2016 when their behavior swung that election to Trump as much as anything else did.

    In our poll, 31% of Black Americans under 30 say they probably won’t vote in this election. That may sound pretty good, given the average U.S. voter turnout of around 60% in recent elections.

    But survey respondents of all stripes tend to wildly overestimate their intention to vote. Indeed, about half of our Black survey respondents under 30 say they don’t often vote because it “doesn’t make a difference,” providing a somewhat more realistic estimate of the percentage who will probably just stay home – and not search for a stamp to mail in their ballot, either.

    And that number does not even take into account the turnout-depressing effects of voter suppression efforts taking place across the country, the pandemic or the heavy distrust of mail-in voting that young Black people tend to express. Only 64% of young people in our sample say they trust the state to report their vote accurately, and only 30% say they plan to take advantage of mail-in voting.

    Joe Biden with a group of people at the  Bethel AME Church in Wilmington, Delaware.
    Biden is courting the Black vote—here, he’s at the Bethel AME Church in Wilmington, Delaware on June 1, 2020—but fewer than half of young Black Americans surveyed in battleground states say they will vote for him. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

    Not sold on the Democratic Party

    Such cynicism on the part of young Black Americans is reflected in the lukewarm feelings they tend to have toward the Democratic Party more generally.

    Only 47% of them say that the party is welcoming to Black Americans, and only 43% say they trust Democrats in Congress to do what’s best for the Black community. Perhaps most strikingly, unlike their older counterparts, only half of those under 30 view the Democrats as any better than the Republicans on these scores.

    In both the survey responses and in the focus groups we conducted of young Black Americans in these same states, we heard repeated frustration toward what they view as a Democratic Party that expects their vote but doesn’t really do anything to deserve it other than claim to be “less racist” than the alternative.

    As one of our focus group respondents put it, “I think at the end of the day, they all have the same agenda.”

    In short, it appears that for Black America, the future is not necessarily “blue.” Electorally speaking, it is not necessarily anything at all. Moving forward, young Black Americans may be the real “swing voters” in the only way that term really makes much sense anymore.

    This is an updated version of an article originally published on Aug. 5, 2020.


    If you liked this article, please donate $5 to keep NationofChange online through November.

    Previous articleThe Federal Agency designed to protect workers is trying to destroy unions and weaken labor rights
    Next articleLawsuit filed after police handcuff 8-year-old boy on video
    Sam Fulwood III is a fellow in the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University, where his work focuses on the intersection of race, public policy, elections, media and popular culture. David C. Barker is a professor of government (American Politics) and director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies. He has published dozens of peer-reviewed journal articles in outlets such as the American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics, Public Opinion Quarterly, and many others. He has authored or coauthored three university press books: Rushed to Judgment: Talk Radio, Persuasion, and American Political Behavior (2002; Columbia University Press), Representing Red and Blue: How the Culture Wars Change the Way Citizens Speak and Politicians Listen (2012; Oxford University Press) and One Nation, Two Realities: Dueling Facts and American Democracy (under contract, expected 2018; Oxford University Press).