It’s becoming evident that Trump and the GOP hierarchy are not in sync, not on the same page and are caught up in a discordant relationship. The two may not be visibly at odds and engaged in constant battles in the media but just below the surface, there are clear indications that this political marriage may not last much longer.
The vows that Trump and the Republican Party made represent a marriage of convenience, not one based on true political bonding and common views, but “one that has been created for personal gain or some other strategic purpose.” That’s an accurate description of why this political alliance was consummated. The problem is that these two parties don’t seem to be pursuing the same strategies and aren’t operating a team to achieve a common goal, which is to win the presidency.
It became evident that this political union was on shaky ground when the GOP issued a call for each of the presidential candidates to sign a loyalty oath by which they would pledge to support the party and also the eventual nominee, no matter who it might be. Clearly, the GOP clearly didn’t trust Trump’s intentions. But Trump signed the pledge saying, “My great honor to pledge my total support and loyalty to the Republican Party and the conservative principles for which it stands.”
So one would have thought that when the Donald signed this pledge that this increasingly fragile marriage would have been strengthened, that it would produce a powerful alliance that would serve to greatly increase support base; to the point that in the general election he would prove to be unstoppable.
But that, quite obviously, hasn’t happened. Sure, Trump is riding high these days but only with a relatively small minority of Republicans; polls continue to show him at 35% or slightly more of the eligible voting base, but with no real appeal to non-GOP and critically important voting blocs in America.
It’s fully understandable why the GOP leadership is struggling, trying to figure out what, if anything, it should do about Trump. After he walked onto the GOP political stage it wasn’t long before he took charge and assumed control of the agenda. Now, while it appears that the GOP is pleased with the support that Trump has been able to generate thus far, it knows that he will have a very difficult time generating that kind of support from the overall American electorate in the upcoming presidential election. So, what to do?
Some observers believe that Trump is slowly but surely committing political suicide as he spews forth more outrageous statements and attacks. He is a loose cannon who aims his diatribes at anyone who doesn’t share his specific views or dares to question him about any issue of importance. He is a master at the art of demeaning, belittling and insulting, all rolled into one.
Trump is shaking the foundations of the Republican Party and challenging its ideology with his own version of what the party should stand for. One example of how he totally differs with the GOP ideology is illustrated by the fact that the GOP has every intention of one day being able to destroy Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. In stark contrast, Trump said that, “They’re gonna cut Social Security. They’re gonna cut Medicare. They’re gonna cut Medicaid.” And then, “I’m the one that’s saying I’m not gonna do that!” Well, with that statement it appears that Trump has just committed party blasphemy of the highest order.
If Trump doesn’t implode, if he survives an attack by the GOP hierarchy, and then goes on to become the party’s candidate for president, the Democrats will quite likely achieve a landslide victory; and here’s how. One winning strategy will be to put together a continuous stream of political commercials highlighting every one of his vicious attacks on Hispanics, women, Muslims and others.
We’ll see ongoing ads including one that features Trump mocking and berating Serge Kovaleski, a NY Times reporter who has a condition in which the function and range of motion of joints can cause muscles to atrophy. It will show Trump twisting his face, shaking his body and his arms back and forth and up and down, mimicking this reporter’s disability. That disgusting act by Trump will be played over and over again and it will help to bring him down.
If Republicans decide to fully embrace Trump and his twisted views then they will be forsaking their basic ideology and risk alienating their most conservative base. But if they find a way to force him out of the race then he could very well break his pledge of loyalty and run as an independent in the coming election which would be a disaster for the GOP and its designated candidate. For the Republicans, this is a conundrum that they could never have thought could happen.
If Trump somehow becomes the party’s nominee and runs against either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders he will also be running against the many individuals, races, and religious groups that he has verbally abused. He is simply not going to get the votes he would need to win; specifically those of Hispanics, African Americans, Asians, Muslims, and the women of America, together with those Americans who will stand with them against Trump.
To think that such an egomaniac, misogynist and thinly veiled bigot could ever become president of America should be unthinkable. Can one even begin to think that the people of this country would elect such a reckless, overly-reactive person to provide the leadership needed to address America’s many deep-set problems? That he could actually have the capacity to conduct a rational foreign policy without launching some massive war, for example, with Russia? This guy is like an enraged bull and all one has to do is to dangle that red cape in front of his nose and he will charge head on.
Even though Trump continually shows his contempt for the mainstream media I would say that it’s a clever strategy because he knows this media will react by covering him 24/7; which they are doing and it’s working perfectly. That’s the main reason why Trump is getting this massive coverage while Bernie Sanders is getting virtually none. And the irony of it is that a very recent Quinnipiac University poll just indicated that in the general election Sanders would beat Trump in a landslide; it predicts he would get 51% of the vote and Trump would get only 38%, a whopping difference of 13%.
So here’s how, in my view, this scenario is going to evolve. Trump will go through the primaries, win some and lose some, but he will not significantly increase his party support and it could, conceivably, be reduced. Then when the GOP convention convenes in Cleveland in July of 2016 its leadership will have its chance to remove Trump from contention by orchestrating what is called a “brokered convention.”, That’s one in which no candidate receives a majority vote on the first ballot and then the process opens up to a lot of horse-trading to find the one that the majority of delegates will fully support.
So if this happens and the GOP is successful in removing Trump then I would bet that Trump will take his revenge, renounce his loyalty pledge and run as an independent. And when he does then the Democrats, whether Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders is their candidate, will walk away with a massive victory.
However, who really knows, for in such a bizarre presidential election anything can happen; so stay tuned and watch the twists and turns that will most certainly take place before it’s all over.
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