WMO warns greenhouse gases and El Niño to push global temps to record levels

"...WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

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Over the next five years, global temperatures could reach record levels. A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event will push global temperatures between 2023 and 2027 to more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

A press release said that there is a 98 percent chance that “at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.”

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” Professor Petteri Taalas, WMO secretary-general, said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

The report said that global temperatures will not “permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years, but it “will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” Taalas said. The report, which was produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, confirmed there is a 32 percent chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5°C threshold.

“…WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” Taalas said.

The report, titled “Global Annual to Decadal Update,” is part of a series of climate products delivered by WMO, including the flagship State of the Global Climate, that is a guide to inform policy-makers. According to a press release, this year there are 145 ensemble members contributed by 11 different institutes to the predictions, which start at the end of 2022.

“Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author and Met Office expert scientist, said.

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