A new analysis by Professor James Hansen, acclaimed climate scientist, said the International Target of two degree Celsius is “dead.” He and his colleagues determined that a combination of a reduction in shipping pollution and an increase in emissions will cause Earth to warm by two degree Celsius by 2045.
The new baseline and trajectory is driven by high sea surface temperature and a warmer atmosphere that holds more water vapor, according to the study.
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) defined a scenario which gives a 50 percent chance to keep warming under two degrees Celsius—that scenario is now impossible,” Hansen said. “The two degrees Celsius target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise.”
Hansen, who formerly worked as a climate scientist for NASA, said this could mean humans will experience more extreme weather sooner.
“The largest practical effect on humans today is increase of the frequency and severity of climate extremes,” Hansen said. “More powerful tropical storms, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, and thus more extreme floods, are driven by high sea surface temperature and a warmer atmosphere that holds more water vapor. Higher global temperature also increases the intensity of heat waves and—at the times and places of dry weather—high temperature increases drought intensity.”
The study, “Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?,” which was published in the journal Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, said that global warming caused by a reduction in ship aerosols will continue, while tropical climate moves into into cool La Niña phase. This determination now predicts the global temperature to stay near or above +1.5 degrees Celsius for the next few years.
“Failure to be realistic in climate assessment and failure to call out the fecklessness of current policies to stem global warming is not helpful to young people,” the study said.
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