A new analysis published in the Lancet medical journal projects that cancer will remain one of the most devastating global health burdens over the next quarter century, with cases and deaths expected to rise sharply, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
The study forecasts that by 2050, 30.5 million people worldwide will receive a new cancer diagnosis each year and 18.6 million will die from the disease. That represents an increase of nearly 75 percent in deaths compared to 2023, when there were 10.4 million cancer deaths and 18.5 million cases. Researchers warn the surge will place heavy strain on global health systems already struggling to keep up with demand.
According to the authors, the rise is driven primarily by population growth and aging, rather than a sudden increase in cancer lethality. When rates are adjusted for age, overall global cancer mortality has declined in recent decades, but this trend is not uniform. “Although global rates for cancer deaths (when adjusted for age) have decreased, this is not the case for some low- and middle-income countries where rates, as well as numbers, are on the rise,” the study noted.
Between 1990 and 2023, the number of new cancer cases more than doubled globally, up 105 percent to 18.5 million, while deaths increased by 74 percent to 10.4 million. Despite medical advances, the study shows that the cancer burden has grown rapidly, underscoring persistent gaps in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
Lead author Dr. Lisa Force of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington emphasized the inequities embedded in the findings. “Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and our study highlights how it is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources,” she said. “Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain under-prioritized in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge in many settings.”
By mid-century, more than half of new cancer cases and two-thirds of deaths are projected to occur in LMICs. In some of these countries, age-standardized incidence rates have worsened sharply. From 1990 to 2023, incidence rates increased 24 percent in low-income nations and 29 percent in lower-middle-income countries. Lebanon saw the greatest percentage increase in both incidence and mortality, while the United Arab Emirates experienced the steepest decline in incidence rates, and Kazakhstan recorded the largest decline in death rates.
The study found that in 2023, breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer worldwide for both sexes combined, while tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancers were the leading cause of cancer deaths.
Researchers also stressed that a significant share of cancer deaths could be prevented by tackling well-established risks. In 2023, 42 percent of cancer deaths—around 4.3 million—were linked to 44 potentially modifiable risk factors. Tobacco use was the leading contributor, responsible for 21 percent of cancer deaths globally.
Risk factors varied by region and income level. In low-income countries, unsafe sex was the top contributor, linked to 12.5 percent of cancer deaths. A greater proportion of men’s deaths (46 percent) were tied to modifiable risks compared with women’s (36 percent). For men, leading risks included tobacco, unhealthy diet, alcohol use, occupational exposures, and air pollution, while for women the major risks included tobacco, unsafe sex, unhealthy diet, obesity, and high blood sugar.
Co-author Dr. Theo Vos of IHME highlighted the opportunities in prevention. “With four in 10 cancer deaths linked to established risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet, and high blood sugar, there are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives, alongside improving accurate and early diagnosis and treatment to support individuals who develop cancer,” he said.
Vos also noted, “There are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives.”
For countries with limited resources, the challenge lies not only in prevention but in expanding access to care. “Ensuring equitable cancer outcomes globally will require greater efforts to reduce disparities in health service delivery such as access to accurate and timely diagnosis, and quality treatment and supportive care,” said Force. She added that “These new estimates and forecasts can support governments and the global health community in developing data informed policies and actions to improve cancer control and outcomes around the world. They can also support tracking of progress towards global and regional cancer targets.”
The analysis warns that without urgent interventions, progress toward the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal of reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by a third by 2030 is unlikely to be achieved.
Nepal Health Research Council’s Meghnath Dhimal, another co-author, warned Euronews that the findings signal “an impending disaster” for low-income nations. He added, “There are cost-effective interventions for cancer in countries at all stages of development. These cancer burden estimates can help broaden the discussion around the importance of cancer and other non-communicable diseases in the global health agenda.”
Data gaps continue to hinder global cancer control efforts. The study emphasizes that many resource-limited countries lack high-quality cancer registries, making it difficult to accurately capture incidence and outcomes. “Our analysis also highlights the need for more data from sources such as cancer and vital registries, particularly in lower resource settings. Supporting cancer surveillance systems is crucial to informing both a local and global understanding of cancer burden,” Force said.
The authors also caution that estimates likely understate the cancer burden in certain areas because they do not account for infectious diseases such as Helicobacter pylori or Schistosoma haematobium that are linked to cancer in some lower-income countries. Nor do they include the impact of COVID-19, recent conflicts, or future medical breakthroughs.
Writing in a linked comment, Dr. Qingwei Luo and Dr. David P. Smith of the University of Sydney underscored the urgency of action. “To ensure meaningful progress in reducing the global cancer burden, it is imperative that governments prioritize funding, strengthen health systems, reduce inequalities, and invest in robust cancer control initiatives and research on prevention, intervention, and implementation—because the future of cancer control depends on decisive, collective action today.”
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