Recent climate reports and data emphasize the extreme urgency for a fossil fuel phaseout, as the world is rapidly approaching or likely to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C global warming threshold (above pre-industrial levels) by the end of this decade. Scientists said that rising emissions and extreme weather is making the Paris Agreement target increasingly difficult to meet without immediate, drastic cuts in fossil fuel use.
Current emissions trajectories mean the remaining “carbon budget” for a 50 percent chance of staying below 1.5°C will likely be depleted by 2030, according to the UN.
“Another year in the top three hottest on record, and communities everywhere are feeling it,” Savio Carvalho, 350.org managing director for campaigns and networks, said. “Extreme weather isn’t rare anymore—it’s driving up food prices, insurance premiums, water shortages, and upending daily life across the globe.”
In a report conducted by Copernicus Climate Change Service, the temperature rise in 2025 was caused by “the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, from continued emissions and reduced uptake of carbon dioxide by natural sinks.” With extreme weather events beginning the new year, from wildfires in parts of Australia and Argentina to floodwaters in Indonesia, 350.org said there is an urgent need for a fossil fuel phaseout.
“We cannot afford to let the 1.5 degree target slip away,” Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org program manager Pacific & Caribbean, said. “We literally cannot afford the financial cost of it. In the Pacific, climate disasters are costing us billions of dollars in recovery and rebuilding. A world beyond 1.5 degrees would devastate our resources even more. The cost of this trajectory extends beyond finances, it threatens the very existence of our people. Entire villages in Fiji are being uprooted and relocated, losing connection to traditional lands and fishing grounds. Atoll nations like Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are grappling with both adaptation and addressing the reality of potential forced migration. To give up on 1.5 degrees is to say that any of these realities are acceptable. Every fraction of a degree we can save is a chance at a livable future for our people. We can only do that by moving beyond fossil fuels as rapidly as possible.”
Even with clean energy growth, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects fossil fuel demand to peak by 2030, but notes it remains “far too high” to keep the 1.5°C target alive, another reason scientists and UN leaders stress a need for immediate and massive reductions in coal, oil, and gas.
“After decades of denial and delay, science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5°C limit—starting at the latest in the early 2030s—is inevitable,” António Guterres, UN Secretary-General, said. “We need a fundamental paradigm shift to limit this overshoot’s magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down. Even a temporary overshoot will unleash far greater destruction and costs for every nation.”
Scientist are calling for an end to fossil fuel subsidies, and accelerating the shift to renewable energy sources to help significantly cut fossil fuel production and consumption needed this decade.
“Clean energy is winning in price, performance, and potential,” Guterres said, “but what is still missing is political courage.”
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