Millions of low-income Americans have already lost access to federal food assistance following enactment of the Republican budget law signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, 2025, according to new analysis examining changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Data published by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities shows SNAP participation fell by 6 percent between July 2025 and December 2025, representing 2.5 million fewer people receiving benefits nationwide. The decline occurred shortly after Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, also identified as H.R. 1, into law.
Researchers say participation may continue to fall as states modify eligibility procedures and administrative policies in response to the law’s funding changes and program requirements. According to CBPP, “we estimate that 4 million people in a typical month will lose out” on SNAP benefits once the law’s provisions are fully implemented.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates H.R. 1 will reduce SNAP funding by nearly $187 billion through 2034, representing the largest cut to the program in its history. The legislation includes expanded work requirements, limits on waivers for areas experiencing higher unemployment, restrictions affecting certain people with lawful immigration status, and changes that shift more program costs from the federal government to the states.
The law also alters how SNAP benefits are administered at the state level by requiring states to assume a portion of benefit costs beginning in 2027. According to CBPP, “Starting in 2027, most states will have to pay between 5 percent and 15 percent of SNAP benefit costs, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars a year in many states.”
Policy analysts say this cost shift may influence how states administer benefits because state payment obligations will be tied in part to program error rates. Error rates measure inaccuracies in benefit calculations, which often result from administrative complexities or documentation issues rather than intentional misuse.
“The magnitude of the cost shift… may incentivize states to take drastic measures to reduce their payment error rates quickly and cut program costs, even if it means delaying or improperly denying benefits to eligible people,” CBPP explained.
Researchers say administrative changes intended to reduce error rates may increase documentation requirements or verification frequency, which can create barriers for households attempting to maintain benefits.
“Many of the policies the states are already adopting in an effort to lower error rates are likely to result in eligible households losing SNAP food assistance because of administrative burdens,” the analysis states.
The CBPP analysis further notes that administrative outcomes affecting eligible households are not always reflected in official program error statistics. “Unfortunately, given the way SNAP error rates are calculated, wrongly denying or delaying benefits to an eligible household is not considered an ‘error.’”
State-level data shows variation in participation declines following enactment of H.R. 1. Arizona experienced one of the steepest drops, with SNAP participation falling 32 percent using federal data and 47 percent using more recent state data. Virginia experienced a 12 percent decline during the same period.
CBPP reported that participation in Arizona has already fallen “far more than anticipated,” and warned that additional states could see similarly large declines as they adjust administrative practices to comply with the law’s provisions.
Researchers note that SNAP participation levels typically respond to economic conditions, including unemployment and poverty rates. As unemployment increases, more households generally become eligible for assistance. Declining participation during periods when unemployment is stable or rising may indicate barriers to enrollment rather than reduced need.
“States with falling SNAP participation while unemployment is rising or holding steady may indicate that an increasing number of eligible families cannot access SNAP to help keep food on their table,” CBPP found.
The analysis also highlights disruption during the federal government shutdown late in 2025, when SNAP operations were affected by delays in benefit delivery. According to the material provided, SNAP experienced “an unprecedented disruption during the government shutdown late in 2025, during which the Trump Administration illegally refused to deliver benefits.”
Advocacy organizations say the reduction in SNAP participation could increase economic strain for households already managing rising food costs. Leor Tal, campaign director at Unrig Our Economy, described the program as essential support for working households.
“SNAP is a lifeline for working Americans nationwide,” Tal said.
Tal said the policy changes reflect broader fiscal priorities that shift resources away from food assistance.
“Now, that lifeline is being ripped away from millions because Republicans in Congress decided that giving tax breaks to billionaires and waging war are more important than protecting food for families,” Tal said.
“No family should have to worry about putting food on the table, but congressional Republicans have made sure that millions will,” Tal added.
Researchers emphasize that some provisions affecting state funding responsibilities do not take effect until 2027, meaning participation trends may continue to evolve as implementation progresses. Early data showing a 2.5 million decline in SNAP participation provides an initial indication of how the law is influencing access to food assistance nationwide.
According to CBPP, “we estimate that 4 million people in a typical month will lose out” once the law’s changes are fully implemented.
COMMENTS