Diesel hits record .90 a gallon as Republicans brace for midterm fallout

The national average price for diesel reached $5.90 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA fuel price data, surpassing the previous all-time high of $5.816 set in June 2022.

Diesel prices have climbed roughly 40% since mid-July, according to Yahoo Finance, driven by the United States’ conflict with Iran, which has disrupted the flow of refined fuel through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict escalated in late February, and by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The Middle East and Russia together supplied roughly a third of the world’s diesel exports in 2025.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said “record diesel will start funneling down into the economy.” Benjamin Picton, a senior market strategist at Rabobank, said “the world is short hydrocarbons, and that is contributing to higher prices.”

US distillate fuel stockpiles are at record lows for this point in the year, with East Coast supplies at an all-time low heading into the winter heating season, Yahoo Finance reported. Refiners including Marathon Petroleum and Shell are running close to full capacity, and President Trump met with refinery executives at the White House this week to ask them to increase output.

Diesel powers most of the country’s freight system, moving goods by truck, train and cargo ship, and fuel costs make up an estimated 15% to 30% of the total cost of food, according to the Independent Grocers Alliance.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy attributed the increase to the loss of Russian supply, telling reporters “when you look at diesel, you have to look at Russia and Ukraine. Russia was a major exporter, the second-biggest exporter in the world, on diesel.” Duffy said “it’s only President Trump who’s trying to drive these prices down.”

Republican strategists are watching the price increases with alarm two months before the midterm elections. Common Dreams reported that internal polling reviewed by Axios shows voters blame the administration’s war with Iran for the price spike. One Republican operative told Axios, “diesel’s at an all-time high, gas is about $4 a gallon, we can’t message that away.” A second operative said of the political fallout, “we have no choice, we’re stuck on the boat with him whether we like it or not.”

Ocean carriers including Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, along with parcel companies UPS and FedEx, have raised fuel surcharges in recent weeks, according to Trucking Dive. Jason Miller, a supply chain professor at Michigan State University, said “for contract freight, shippers will absorb most of these higher diesel costs through higher freight rates,” while carriers hauling loads on the spot market “end up absorbing much of the higher diesel prices by making less profit.”

The last time diesel set a record, in June 2022, the increase followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and contributed to a broader run-up in consumer prices that shaped that year’s midterm elections. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not yet published data showing how far the current price increase has moved through grocery and shipping costs nationally.