Texas report projects data center growth would push air pollution back toward 2000s levels

Planned data centers could push Texas air pollution back toward levels last seen in the 2000s, according to a new HARC report released Tuesday by the Houston Advanced Research Center. The group modeled emissions in 2031 and found that nitrogen oxides, a main ingredient of smog, would rise 136 percent and approach their 2004 volume.

The same projections show volatile organic compounds ending up 32 percent above their 2002 level. Fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5, would return to the volume last seen in 2006, the report says. HARC modeled four power-supply scenarios, and each natural gas option was run with and without pollution controls.

The size of the swing depends on where the electricity comes from. HARC found that nitrogen oxide emissions from data center power would be two to 10 times higher if all new demand were met by on-site combustion rather than by the grid paired with solar and wind, depending on the demand forecast. Carlos Gamarra, HARC’s vice president for energy, air and information technology, told the Texas Tribune that on-site gas engines emit about four times the nitrogen oxides of grid power for the same facility. “We need to treat data centers as the industrial facilities they are,” Gamarra said.

Gamarra also said developers do not always choose the cleanest on-site generation “because of timelines.” Connecting to the grid can take three to five years, he said, which pushes projects toward generating their own power.

The scale of what is planned is large. A Texas Tribune analysis found at least 288 planned data center projects statewide, with proposed sizes ranging from 5 to 11,000 megawatts. The Environmental Integrity Project counts at least 32 natural gas power plants planned in Texas. The state’s grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, has received more than 500 large-load connection requests over the past two years, compared with about two dozen the year before.

The report lands as Texas officials and advocacy groups are already contesting how data center pollution is regulated. On September 21, Gov. Greg Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to halt issuance of all pending and new environmental permits for data center projects, according to a Foley summary of the directive. The freeze is to last until the grid operator completes its interconnection review and audit. The directive asked the agency for a progress report by October 19.

The directive also requires data center projects to cover the full cost of electrical infrastructure and to avoid drawing water that local communities need, Foley reported.

On July 22, the Environmental Integrity Project, the Sierra Club and Public Citizen sent a notice of intent to sue Vantage Data Centers and VoltaGrid. The groups allege the companies built diesel generators and natural gas power plants at two San Antonio data centers without the permits required of a major source of air pollution. They say the companies registered the sites as minor polluters by splitting power generation and data centers into separate applications.

Mary Greene, enforcement director at the Environmental Integrity Project, said of the projects, “There is no way that anyone could characterize this as a small project.” She called the minor permits “permits on paper.” Vantage spokesman Mark Freeman said the company aims to be a responsible neighbor, will review the allegations and is committed to complying with applicable laws. VoltaGrid did not respond to requests for comment, Inside Climate News reported.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has said it issues only permits that comply with applicable state and federal rules. Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin already struggle to meet federal air standards, the Tribune reported. Texas cut major air pollutants between 2002 and 2024 while its population grew by millions.