My most recent article was on the Movement for a People’s Party and its promotion of a Demexit.us from the Democratic Party. I support the idea that Bernie-ites and others declare their independence from the Democratic Party, principally because (1) it may force Joe Biden and the DNC to adopt a Platform and administrative strategy favorable to the left-wing generally and (2) even if it doesn’t, the exiting Bernie-ites can work in 2020 and gain valuable experience for 2024.
Look at the political situation right now. All of the many candidates for President on the Democratic side have quit the race, leaving Joe Biden as the only one standing. His strongest competitor was Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders ran both in 2016 and 2020, and in my view was twice cheated. The problem was that the cheating was so apparent in 2016 that the movement claims over 50,000 people joined them. Many of Bernie’s supporters are disappointed that he has never claimed there was cheating, even though Donna Brazile stated that there was, and Elizabeth Warren concurred.
The question now is what will happen? Some have argued that the DNC will try not to nominate Biden, but would prefer a stronger candidate, like Andrew Cuomo. That’s certainly possible. But the MPP and Bernie-ites want a strong platform, and the only way that’ll happen is if they demonstrate that the Democrats will lose if they don’t keep the bulk of the Bernie-ites voting for the Democratic nominee.
“Quinnipiac University found that 86 percent of Sanders voters would vote for Biden, 3 percent would vote for Trump, 2 percent would vote for someone else, 4 percent wouldn’t vote, and 5 percent didn’t know who they’d vote for.”
Biden needs those votes, or at least a good part of them. If not, Trump will run all over him. MPP and the other progressives know this. They want to convince Bernie-ites to abandon the Democratic Party visibly and tell Biden that they aren’t voting for him unless he writes a platform and appoints members of his cabinet and a vice-presidential nominee whom they will support.
To convince Biden that the Bernie-ites are going to abandon him, MPP should form a coalition with the Greens, the Socialists, and other progressive third parties. All these parties should support Demexit. They should make it clear that Demexit is a way of forcing concessions from Biden and the Democrats. They should spell out what they want. And they should tell Biden and the Democrats that if the concessions aren’t made and aren’t clearly enforceable, the exiting Bernie-ites will not vote for Biden or any other Democrat. Instead, they will concentrate on building their party for 2024.
Now, this is a dangerous move, because if Trump wins again, we shall have a Supreme Court which will be dangerous for at least the next 20 years. And that’s not the only bad thing. On the other hand, Biden has been voluntarily making concessions to the left-wing of his party. He understands the problem that he faces. If the Demexit is a large number, then he will lose.
“Three weeks ago, President Trump seemed poised for victory in November. The economy was strong. The nation was at peace. That is usually a recipe for re-election — despite Trump’s habit of tweeting controversial things.
But then the coronavirus hit. And everything has changed.
Our material prosperity, so carefully cultivated by the president, is now gone. It does not take a Ph.D. in the “dismal science” of economics to know that the nation’s economic outlook over the next weeks and months is dismal.
Our peace is gone, too—an especially ironic development for this president. No leader in a generation has been less inclined than Trump to commit the United States to foreign entanglements. But here we are, entangled with a microbial enemy from overseas.
If we were going by the book, we’d have to conclude that Trump is a goner in November. History tells us that presidents do not win re-election in situations like this.”
Others agree. “Nouriel “Dr Doom” Roubini predicted the housing bubble crash of 2007-8. Well, he’s now predicting the Donald Trump electoral crash of November 2020:
“He will lose the election, that’s for sure. This has always been the case in history. Ford lost to Carter after the 1973 oil shock, Carter lost to Reagan due to the second oil crisis in 1979, and Bush lost to Clinton after the Kuwait invasion.”
Roubini added, “The Democratic field is poor, but Trump is dead.”
And Prof. Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted 8 of the last 9 Presidential elections, says that “the coronavirus pandemic may spell defeat for President Trump in the 2020 election.”
Lichtman’s system is based on 13 “keys,” a series “of true-or-false statements that anticipate whether the incumbent party’s presidential candidate will be elected in a given year. If six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent candidate will lose; if fewer than six are false, he or she will win. While Lichtman’s system is somewhat complicated by elections where there is a split between the popular vote and the Electoral College results, it has otherwise successfully anticipated every presidential election since 1984.”
The keys are as follows:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Trump holds the following keys in his favor: 2, 3, 4, and 13. The following are against him: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. In January 2020, Lichtman thought that 1, 9 and 12 were against Trump. But that was before the coronavirus pandemic, the loss of millions of jobs, and likely recession made 5, 6, and 8 likely to be false and therefore predict Trump’s loss. And there may be a serious third party campaign, of course.
If Biden were to rely on Lichtman, he might well believe that he will win. But the safest route would be for there to be a compromise between Biden and the Bernie-ites. Let’s hope that there will be rationality. But at the same time, Biden cannot just assume that Bernie’s supporters will vote for him out of fear of Trump.