Democrats notched a striking upset in Texas on Saturday as Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican opponent Leigh Wambsganss in a special election for a state senate seat long considered safely Republican. The victory came in Senate District 9, a Fort Worth-area district that President Donald Trump carried by 17 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
With nearly all votes counted, Rehmet held a lead of more than 14 percentage points, flipping a seat that Republicans had controlled for decades. The district covers a large portion of Tarrant County, which has historically been one of the GOP’s strongest population centers in Texas. While the county itself has shown signs of gradual political change in recent election cycles, the state senate district has remained firmly in Republican hands until now.
Rehmet, a machinist, labor union leader, and Air Force veteran, centered his campaign on working-class issues, public education, and job protection. Speaking to supporters after the results became clear, he framed the victory as a collective effort, saying, “This win goes to everyday working people.” His campaign received backing from national Democratic organizations, including the Democratic National Committee and VoteVets, a veterans advocacy group that said it spent $500,000 on advertising in the race.
The seat became vacant after longtime Republican incumbent Kelly Hancock resigned to take a statewide office. Hancock had won the district easily in multiple elections, reinforcing its reputation as deeply red. Trump’s 17-point margin there in 2024 only added to the perception that a Democratic win would be unlikely, particularly in a low-turnout special election.
Wambsganss conceded defeat Saturday but quickly signaled that she plans to contest the seat again in November, when voters will choose who holds it for a full four-year term. Emphasizing the unusual nature of special elections, she said, “The dynamics of a special election are fundamentally different from a November general election.” She added that she believed Republican voters would respond differently in a higher-turnout contest later this year.
Republican leaders across Texas reacted soberly to the outcome. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick described the result as “a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas.” In a social media post, he warned, “Our voters cannot take anything for granted,” while also noting that special elections can be unpredictable due to low participation. Patrick stressed that Republicans still control every statewide office and said the party would work to reclaim the seat in November.
Democrats, meanwhile, pointed to the race as evidence of growing momentum. Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico highlighted both the district’s partisan history and the financial imbalance between the campaigns. “Trump won this district by 17 points,” he wrote. “Democrat Taylor Rehmet just flipped it despite Big Money outspending him 10:1. Something is happening in Texas.”
Political observers also underscored the scale of the upset. Steven Monacelli, a special correspondent for the Texas Observer, called the result “an earthquake of Biblical proportions.” He emphasized the symbolic weight of the win, noting, “Tarrant County is the largest red county in the nation. I cannot emphasize enough how big this is.”
Data analysts pointed to how sharply the result departed from recent voting patterns. Adam Carlson noted that the strongest Democratic performance in the district before this election came during Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 US Senate run, when Democrats reached just 43.6 percent of the vote. Rehmet, Carlson wrote, was likely to exceed 55 percent. Carlson also observed that “The heavily Latino parts of the district shifted sharply to the left from 2024,” suggesting significant changes in turnout or voter preference in key precincts.
Other analysts pointed to voter enthusiasm as a major factor. Polling analyst Lakshya Jain cited recent survey data showing a Democratic advantage among the most motivated voters. “Our last poll’s generic ballot was D+4,” Jain said. “Among the most enthusiastic voters (a.k.a., those who said they would ‘definitely’ vote in 2026)? D+12. Foreseeable and horrible for the GOP.”
Local media commentary echoed those assessments. Bud Kennedy argued that the race demonstrated Democrats’ expanding competitiveness across Texas. He wrote that Rehmet had “the perfect résumé for a District 9 Democrat” and said Wambsganss had struggled with suburban public school voters in north Fort Worth, a group that has drifted away from Republicans in recent years.
At the national level, Trump moved quickly to distance himself from the loss. Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate, he said, “I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race.” His comments contrasted sharply with his actions just a day earlier, when he praised Wambsganss on social media, calling her “a GREAT Candidate and has my Complete and Total Endorsement,” and urging Texans to turn out to vote for her.
Rehmet’s win adds to a broader pattern of Democratic overperformance in special elections since Trump returned to the White House. Democrats have scored unexpected victories in legislative races in states such as Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Iowa, and have won gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor with the highest turnout in a mayoral race there in half a century.
These results have unfolded against a backdrop of mixed national sentiment toward the Trump administration. Trump’s approval rating has hovered around 40 percent, and a January AP-NORC poll found that majorities of US adults disapproved of his handling of the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and trade negotiations. Democratic leaders have argued that these conditions are motivating voters to turn out even in traditionally low-profile elections.
Despite the upset, the immediate balance of power in Austin remains unchanged. Rehmet’s term will last only until early January, and Republicans will retain a comfortable majority in the Texas Senate regardless of the November outcome. The legislature is not scheduled to reconvene until 2027.
Still, the result has forced both parties to reassess long-held assumptions about Texas politics. As Monacelli put it, the outcome in Senate District 9 represents “an earthquake of Biblical proportions,” a political shock whose aftershocks are likely to be felt well beyond Tarrant County.
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