Published: Thursday 13 June 2013

Last month, I argued why "America Must Intervene In Syria, Despite Lack of National Security Interest," and although I continue to stand by my position,  I'm confronted with the wideness in scope the Syrian crisis commands.

In the post of reading Dexter Filkins's brilliant exposé in The New Yorker - detailing Obama's risk-averse policy towards Syria - and after listening to Robert Malley 's (Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group in Washington D.C.) edifying interview on NPR Fresh yesterday, I'm convinced that the Syrian conflict is far more intricate than we can fathom, but I'll attempt to break down the competing interests and contesting truths for my readers.

Robert Malley, on air yesterday, affirmed,

"This has become not just a war within Syria. It has become a regional, sectarian civil war. Perhaps the best way to put it is to say that what was a war in Syria with regional spillover has now become a regional war with a Syrian focus."

Foreign policy experts are presently baffled with the exigencies and costs of the Syrian crisis, with more than 80,ooo killed, 1.5 million refugees, and around 3.5 million displaced Syrians; and coupled with the largely anti-war sentiment which Americans harbor in the aftermath of Iraq and in the culminating stages of Afghanistan (suffering from the economic constraints of war and an ...

Published: Monday 3 June 2013

Let us look behind the curtain of war preparations for the real reasons for our potential intervention in Syria. Are we truly interested in democracy for Syria? Can this bitter civil war lead to such a result? Or are we being influenced by Israel, whose arch enemy Hezbollah has just announced that it will fight for the al-Assad regime?

The history of Syria is not encouraging. Freed from French rule after W.W.II, the Syrian democracy was torn by repeated coups until “emergency law” was established in 1963 and lasted for 48 years, till the outbreak of civil war in 2011.
A nation of unusual ethnic and religious diversity, Syria is weakened by poverty and torn by strife. Even if  it is eventually returned to democratic rule, internal conflict could continue.

The ongoing civil war, with fighters from surrounding nations and no unified opposition to the al-Assad government, will only become more deadly with foreign intervention or the provision of more arms. Becoming involved in this civil war could be very costly for the United States. What can we do to relieve the suffering and be in a position to help with a cease fire?

The most humane and effective action of the United States would be to support the international efforts to relieve the suffering of thousands of Syrian refugee families now in the refugee camps of neighboring nations. This would befriend the Syrian people and improve our reputation in the Middle East. Any military intervention, including the  establishment of a no-fly zone (an act of war), would inevitably be far more expensive than we can afford and contribute to our reputation as an aggressive military nation.

We must not allow the war-mongering agents of Israel in Washington to stampede us into an act of war that will contribute to the killing of more Syrian people and other unknown results. It would be far smarter and more humane to assist the refugees and thus position the U.S. to be an ...

Published: Sunday 6 January 2013
Published: Saturday 29 December 2012
“For optimists, what matters is believing in and nurturing the instinct of cooperation in the hope, and expectation, that decent human values will ultimately prevail.”

If we were hoping for peace in our time, 2012 did not deliver it. Conflict grew ever bloodier in Syria, continued to grind on in Afghanistan, and flared up periodically in West, Central, and East Africa. There were multiple episodes of ethnic, sectarian, and politically motivated violence in Myanmar (Burma), South Asia, and around the Middle East. Tensions between China and its neighbors have escalated in the South China Sea, and between China and Japan in the East China Sea. Concerns about North Korea’s and Iran’s nuclear programs remain unresolved.

And yet, many feared eruptions within and between states did not occur. Strong international pressure helped to contain the Second Gaza War quickly. A long-sought peace agreement was secured for the southern Philippine island of Mindanao. Major strides were taken toward sustainable peace and reconciliation in Myanmar. There was no major new genocidal catastrophe. And, despite the United Nations Security Council’s paralysis over Syria, UN General Assembly member states made clear their continuing overwhelming acceptance of the responsibility to protect those at risk of mass-atrocity crimes.

 

The bigger story has been concealed, as ever, by the media’s daily ...

Published: Tuesday 4 December 2012
Published: Friday 30 November 2012
“It is unclear whether Iraq permitted the fly-overs described in the documents. The Syrian cargo plane scheduled to pick up the helicopters did not land or take off from Moscow at the appointed times this month, suggesting that those flights did not happen.”

 

In late October, Syria asked Iraqi authorities to grant air access for a cargo plane transporting refurbished attack helicopters from Russia, according to flight records obtained by ProPublica. With Turkish and European airspace off limits to Syrian arms shipments, the regime of Bashar al-Assad needs Iraq’s air corridor to get the helicopters home, where the government is struggling to suppress an uprising.

Iraq regained control of its airspace from the U.S. military just a year ago and has been under intense diplomatic pressure from the United States to isolate the Syrian regime. Turkey says it has closed its airspace to Syrian flights, and if Iraq did so, Syria would be virtually cut off from transporting military equipment by plane. European Union sanctions have already constricted arms transport by sea and air.

But it is unclear whether Iraq permitted the fly-overs described in the documents. The Syrian cargo plane scheduled to pick up the helicopters did not land or take off from Moscow at the appointed times this month, suggesting that those flights did not happen.

Some of the flight request documents have been posted by hackers associated with the online collective Anonymous and formed the basis of a Time story Thursday. Other documents were obtained separately by ProPublica, which reported Monday that Syria appears to have flown 240 tons of bank notes from Moscow this summer. The authenticity of the documents in either cache could not be independently verified.

But taken together, the documents appear to contain new ...

Published: Monday 26 November 2012
“The regime of Bashar al-Assad is increasingly in need of cash to stay afloat and continue financing the military’s efforts to crush the uprising.”

 

This past summer, as the Syrian economy began to unravel and the military pressed hard against an armed rebellion, a Syrian government plane ferried what flight records describe as more than 200 tons of “bank notes” from Moscow.

The records of overflight requests were obtained by ProPublica. The flights occurred during a period of escalating violence in a conflict that has left tens of thousands of people dead since fighting broke out in March 2011.

The regime of Bashar al-Assad is increasingly in need of cash to stay afloat and continue financing the military’s efforts to crush the uprising. U.S. and European sanctions, including a ban on minting Syrian currency, have damaged the country’s economy. As a result, Syria lost access to an Austrian bank that had printed its bank notes.

“Having currency that you can put into circulation is certainly something that is important in terms of running an economy and more so in an economy that is become more cash-based as things deteriorate,” said Daniel Glaser, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes.  “It is certainly something the Syrian government wants to do, to pay soldiers or pay anybody anything."

According to the flight records, which are in English and Farsi, eight round-trip flights between Damascus International Airport and Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport each carried 30 tons of bank notes back to Syria.

Syrian and Russian officials did not respond to ProPublica's questions about the authenticity and accuracy of the flight records. It is not possible to know whether the logs accurately described the cargo or what else ...

Published: Tuesday 13 November 2012
Published: Friday 9 November 2012
Published: Tuesday 30 October 2012
Published: Wednesday 24 October 2012
Neither candidate responded directly to the question as Gov. Romney mentioned Libya as well as Syria, Egypt, Mali and Iran, while President Obama said in passing, “your strategy previously has been one that has been all over the map….”

 

Critics have called the Romney-Obama debates as narrow as they were shallow, but few have done more to try to broaden and deeper the national discussion

than Amy Goodman and the Democracy NOW!  team, who have produced their “Expanding the Debate” series with third party candidates added to the pair anointed by the two parties’ debate commission. 

 

For the final debate October 22, Democracy NOW! went on the air in front of a live audience at the Osher Marin Jewish Community Center in San Rafael, California, pausing the debate in progress to allow comments by two third-party presidential candidates who were excluded from the official debate: Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party and Rocky Anderson of the Justice Party.   

 

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was invited, but he declined. 

 

The first question at the Florida debate purported to be about “Libya,” but was really about the September 11 events in Benghazi and their aftermath, as Bob Schieffer asked it: “What happened? What caused it? Was it spontaneous? Was it an intelligence failure? Was it a policy failure?”  Neither candidate responded directly to the question as Gov. Romney mentioned Libya as well as Syria, Egypt, Mali and Iran, while President Obama said in passing, “your strategy previously has been one that has been all over the ...

Published: Monday 22 October 2012
“Both positions could favor Romney and the Republicans who, since last month’s killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three of his staff in Benghazi, have argued that Obama’s policy toward the Arab world is unraveling.”

 

On the eve of Monday’s foreign policy debate between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney, the electorate appears increasingly disillusioned with the so-called Arab Spring, according to a new survey released by the Pew Research Center here.

A majority (57 percent) of the more than 1,500 respondents said they do not believe that recent changes in the political leadership of Arab countries will “lead to lasting improvements” for the region, while only 14 percent – down from 24 percent 18 months ago – said they believe the changes will be “good for the United States”.

Nearly three out of four voters said the changes will either be “bad” for Washington (36 percent) or won’t have much of an effect either way (38 percent).

Both positions could favor Romney and the Republicans who, since last month’s killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three of his staff in Benghazi, have argued that Obama’s policy toward the Arab world is unraveling.

Friday’s killing in Beirut of Lebanon’s top intelligence officer and at least seven other people could add to that perception, as Col. Wissam al-Hassan was aligned with the “March 14” coalition, a Sunni-led faction with close ties to Washington and strongly opposed to the Al-Assad regime in Syria.

The poll, which was conducted Oct. 4-7, also found a somewhat tougher position toward both Iran’s nuclear program and on China’s trade policies.

Monday’s debate, the third and last in a series between the two candidates before the Nov. 6 election, is not expected to draw the huge television audiences – over 65 million people – of the last two, due to the relative lack of interest in foreign policy compared to domestic issues, especially the economy.

Published: Sunday 21 October 2012
Praising our military while ignoring the wars we send them to be perhaps the biggest shame of American political discourse today (and that is indeed saying a lot).

Here's something I'd like to see this campaign season: our two major party candidates debating our wars rather. Both President Obama and Governor Romney prefer to praise the troops rather than to address the tragic consequences of continuing military action in Afghanistan and elsewhere. The latter, when they're addressed at all, are reduced to sound bites and homilies about the need to "stay the course" and "support our troops." 


Praising our military while ignoring the wars we send them to be perhaps the biggest shame of American political discourse today (and that is indeed saying a lot). Think about it. The eleventh anniversary of our war in Afghanistan recently passed with barely a murmur in the media. This is three times as long as the U.S. military fought in World War II. Presidential conventions and debates occur with no sustained discussion of Afghanistan (Iraq having been already consigned to political oblivion). The most vital, essential, and sacred decision we can make as a nation -- when to send our troops into harm's way and under what conditions we grant them the authority in our nation's name to take the lives of others -- this is neither critiqued nor discussed in our political discourse.


Even as we build more military bases and deploy more troops overseas, even as we elevate defense spending to new heights, our political elites work to isolate war from their politics and our society. But war is inseparable from politics, as the Prussian theorist of war, Carl von Clausewitz, reminded us two centuries ago. At the same time, ...

Published: Friday 12 October 2012
“It seems that the first rule of the debate club now is: no disagreeing on what matters most.”

 

We had a debate club back in high school. Two teams would meet in the auditorium, and Mr. Garrity would tell us the topic, something 1970s-ish like “Resolved: Women Should Get Equal Pay for Equal Work” or “World Communism Will Be Defeated in Vietnam.” Each side would then try, through persuasion and the marshaling of facts, to clinch the argument. There’d be judges and a winner.

Today’s presidential debates are a long way from Mr. Garrity’s club. It seems that the first rule of the debate club now is: no disagreeing on what matters most. In fact, the two candidates rarely interact with each other at all, typically ditching whatever the question might be for some rehashed set of campaign talking points, all with the complicity of the celebrity media moderators preening about democracy in action. Waiting for another quip about Big Bird is about all the content we can expect.

But the joke is on us. Sadly, the two candidates are stand-ins for Washington in general, a “war” capital whose denizens work and argue, sometimes fiercely, from within a remarkably limited range of options.  It was D.C. on autopilot last week for domestic issues; the next two presidential debates are to be in part or fully on foreign policy challenges (of which there are so many). When it comes to foreign -- that is, military -- policy, the gap between Barack and Mitt is slim to the point of nonexistent on many issues, however much they may badger each other on the subject.  That old saw about those who fail to understand history repeating its mistakes applies a little too easily here: the last 11 years have added up to one disaster after another abroad, and without a smidgen of new thinking (guaranteed not to put in an appearance at any of the ...

Published: Tuesday 2 October 2012
Published: Sunday 30 September 2012
Published: Wednesday 26 September 2012
Published: Wednesday 19 September 2012
Published: Friday 14 September 2012
Published: Wednesday 12 September 2012
Published: Monday 10 September 2012
“On Friday, the Army formally solicited new bids to make the grey uniforms used by chauffeurs.”

 

Facing the end of an era of untrammeled growth in defense spending, officials at the Pentagon have spent most of 2012 telling anyone who will listen how potential budget cuts will put national security in jeopardy. While funds for big ticket military items are under new pressure, however, there’s one thing the Pentagon still has pocket change for: its well-groomed chauffeurs.

On Friday, the Army formally solicited new bids to make the grey uniforms used by chauffeurs.  The request was first uncovered by our friend Mark Thompson, who closely tracks such bids for his entertaining Battleland blog at TIME.

The bid makes clear that even though the Pentagon has plenty to worry about these days — the threat of war with Iran, the chaos in Syria, and the continued conflict in Afghanistan, to name a few — someone there still has time to worry about the fine details of how the drivers of top generals and assistant secdefs are to be dressed.

In the solicitation, the fabrics of the uniforms are spelled out with precision:  coats and trousers must be 55 percent polyester and 45 percent wool, while shirts should be 65 percent polyester and 35 percent cotton. The cotton tie must be burgundy. Anticipating a rough winter, the solicitation included an order for 68 black V-neck sweaters. 

As Thompson points out, the details suggest the chauffeur force is heavily male.  The Army wants 203 men’s coats and 16 women’s coats, along with 408 men’s shirts and only 24 for women.  Nothing but the best will do: “new Equipment ONLY; NO remanufactured or ‘gray market’ items,” and all items must ...

Published: Monday 10 September 2012
“The culture of violence, he believes, has to be replaced with the culture of peace – even as military conflicts and insurgencies have destroyed human lives and caused devastation in Sudan, Syria, Cote d’Ivoire, Somalia, Colombia, Mali, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine.”

 

When U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon addresses the High-Level Forum on Culture of Peace later this week, he will transmit a message that underlines his political philosophy: all disputes need to be resolved by peaceful means, not through military might.

And time and again, he has warned that the militarization by both parties of the 17-month political crisis in Syria, which has claimed over 18,000 lives, would never result in a peaceful settlement.

The culture of violence, he believes, has to be replaced with the culture of peace – even as military conflicts and insurgencies have destroyed human lives and caused devastation in Sudan, Syria, Cote d’Ivoire, Somalia, Colombia, Mali, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine.

In his address, Ban is expected to reiterate the urgent need to comply with the basic principles of the U.N. Declaration and Program of Action on the Culture of Peace adopted by consensus by the General Assembly back in September 1999.

“Unfortunately,” said a Third World diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, “violence seems to be a cultural thing worldwide, judging by the recent shootings in South Africa, the ruthless suppression of demonstrators in Bahrain and Syria and the suicide bombings in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan.”

As the Declaration points out, he said, the United Nations should strengthen its ongoing efforts to promote a culture of peace and effectively implement the Program of Action (POA).

Article 1 of that Declaration calls on all U.N. member states to commit to peaceful settlement of conflicts.

And Article 3 says the fuller development of a culture of peace is integrally linked to promoting peaceful settlement of conflicts, mutual respect and understanding, and international ...

Published: Monday 20 August 2012
“At a refugee camp, they joined some 2,000 former soldiers and ranking officers who had already abandoned their loyalty to Bashar.”

 

From the Al Jazeera interaction feature “Tracking Syria’s defections.”

After Tunisia’s nonviolent revolution, on March 15, 2011, citizens of the small southern Syrian city of Duraa organized to challenge the government’s severe torture of 20 children, who had posted graffiti criticizing the government. As news spread of the authorities’ crushing of the civil resisters who objected to torturing children, sympathetic demonstrations swelled in solidarity across much of Syria. Local pro-democracy movements dropped ping-pong balls with “Freedom” and “Democracy” written on them from hillsides into towns below. Fountains sprayed red-tinted water, in allusion to gratuitous killings. The increasing brutality raised the voices of Syrians, who minimally asked for protection of civilians. Person by person, family by family, community by community, Syrians turned against the government of Bashar al-Assad. They changed sides.

More recently, a steady trickle of members of the Syrian military forces and political elite have been defecting as well — the latest and most pronounced example being Prime Minister Riyad Farid Hijab, who fled with his family to Jordan in the early morning of August 1. In July, 85 members of the Syrian military, including a general, defected to Turkey. At a refugee camp, they joined some 2,000 former soldiers and ranking officers who had already abandoned their loyalty to Bashar. In late June, another general, two colonels, a major and a lieutenant were part of a group of 33 soldiers and brass who sought refuge. A few ...

Published: Sunday 12 August 2012
Published: Sunday 5 August 2012
The United States has not “declared war” against another country since Pearl Harbor; however, it has engaged in a series of losing wars ever since.

Once again the United States is engaging in a war it is destined to lose.  Add Syria to the long list of nations where the United States has unnecessarily used military force to its disadvantage since the end of World War II.

There is an alternative to waging war against other nations and their people, and the United States will continue losing such wars until it adopts a better strategy.

The United States has not "declared war" against another country since Pearl Harbor; however, it has engaged in a series of losing wars ever since.  Unlike World War II, which resulted in the complete defeat and unconditional surrender of enemy forces, these wars were not fought to defend the United States against military attack.  To the contrary, they were wars of convenience fought to advance the economic and political agenda of the United States government.

In the absence of clear-cut victories, the passage of time has demonstrated, repeatedly, that these wars have wasted trillions of dollars and millions of lives.  In every case, the war resulted in a loss of prestige and advantage for the U.S.  In other words, the United States lost these wars.

The only beneficiary of these wars has been the military industrial complex and those who profit from the excesses and violence of war.  Unfortunately, "they" have come to control the U.S. government and the means of communication.  Thus, they can easily start wars for profit and successfully peddle the wars to those who pay the price, in the lives of their children and their hard-earned taxes.

In every one of these wars, it is possible to identify an individual or small group of individuals who were engaging in conduct that may or may not have been dangerous to the safety and security of the United States, but which was always contrary to the best interests of their own people.

Published: Tuesday 31 July 2012
“If the allegations are true, Iran and Hezbollah have crossed a dangerous line with their first strike in Europe in more than 15 years.”

 

After a decade in which al Qaeda dominated the world stage, the global terror threat from Iran has escalated sharply, generating a swarm of recent plots from Delhi to Mombasa to Washington and signaling an aggressive new strategy, counterterror officials say.

 

But there were meager results until this month. On July 18, a suspected suicide bomber killed six people and wounded 30 aboard an Israeli tourist bus in a coastal town in Bulgaria. Israel quickly accused Hezbollah ...

Published: Tuesday 31 July 2012
How can we can create the right vision to support indigenous nonviolence and unarmed civilian peacekeeping?

 

During the climactic “Quit India” campaign launched by Gandhi in 1942, there were outbreaks of violence. Earlier, in 1922, similar outbreaks had led him to suspend the non-cooperation movement. This time, however, he said, “let our lamp stay lit in the midst of this hurricane.”

This is very much the precarious situation of nonviolence in Syria today. A bit of background:

In the Quranic version of Cain and Abel, Abel says to his jealous brother,: "If thou dost stretch thy hand against me, to slay me, it is not for me to stretch my hand against thee to slay thee, for I do fear God, the cherisher of the worlds." (Quran 5:28) In other words, the first murder is accompanied by the first act of nonviolence, a refusal to kill, even in self-defense, through mindfulness of a God who stands far above partisan conflict.

Islamic scholar Sheik Jawdat Said based his book, The Doctrine Of The First Son Of Adam, apparently the ...

Published: Sunday 29 July 2012
Published: Tuesday 17 July 2012
“Real-estate mogul Donald Trump, with his customary charm, thought it appropriate to refer to the brilliant and scholarly Roberts as a “dummy.”

Shortly after John Roberts, the conservative United States Supreme Court Chief Justice, sided with the Court’s four liberal justices to uphold President Barack Obama’s major health-care reform, he joked that he was leaving the country for the “impregnable island fortress” of Malta. Roberts was referring not so much to the mainstream media’s speculation about the reasons for his surprise vote, but rather to the fury and thirst for retribution among conservative bloggers and pundits.

Indeed, “traitor” was one of their common epithets, as were “coward” and “sellout.” Real-estate mogul Donald Trump, with his customary charm, thought it appropriate to refer to the brilliant and scholarly Roberts as a “dummy.”

The apoplectic rage that followed the Supreme Court’s decision on Obama’s health-care legislation is becoming routine in America’s public discourse, and it is a bipartisan malady. Though it may have started on the left – in response to Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush – it has become increasingly a right-wing phenomenon. Radio personalities like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck (who recently signed a $100 million deal to spew more hatred on the airwaves) dwarf liberal commentators in audience size. The age of information and communications has given way to an age of anger.

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Published: Wednesday 11 July 2012
Published: Monday 9 July 2012
Published: Monday 9 July 2012
“Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who took part in the Paris meeting, also praised Tlas’s defection and predicted that more would follow.”

 

The defection this week of a key general with longstanding ties to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad was hailed Friday by officials in the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama as an important step towards ending the regime.

Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlas, the son of former defense minister Mustafa Tlas, was reportedly smuggled by opposition activists to Turkey three days ago and may be en route to Paris, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told reporters Friday during a high-level meeting of the “Friends of Syria” group in the French capital. Fabius later stated that he had no indication of Tlas’s final destination.

“We welcome this defection and we believe it is significant,” Pentagon spokesman Capt. John Kirby said, while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who took part in the Paris meeting, also praised Tlas’s defection and predicted that more would follow.

“(I)t is important that there is this increasing stream of senior military defectors,” she told reporters after the meeting in reference to Tlas’s defection. “Because if people like him, and like the generals and colonels and others who have recently defected to Turkey are any indication, regime insiders and the military establishment are starting to vote with their feet.

“Those who have the closest knowledge of Assad’s actions and crimes are moving away, and we think that’s a very promising development,” she added.

Independent analysts here, including some who have long expressed skepticism over administration claims of the regime’s vulnerability, largely echoed that view, agreeing that Tlas’s departure has struck a major blow to the regime, which has relied for some 40 years on unity between the Alawite minority, of which the Assad are a part, and the Sunni military and business elite.

Published: Sunday 1 July 2012
Published: Monday 25 June 2012
Published: Thursday 21 June 2012
“The most frightening thing about this spiral of ever greater violence and brutality is that some of the now-hardened lines have been sectarian.”

 

The Syrian upheaval has gone through several stages. It began with relatively peaceful protests by crowds in a handful of small and medium-size cities outside the large metropolitan areas of Damascus and Aleppo. Severe repression by the national regime led some revolutionaries to turn to guerrilla tactics. The ruling Baath government subjected the quarters held by the Free Syrian Army to heavy artillery and tank assaults. More recently, as the rebellion continued to spread in small towns, the military has provided cover to death squads that have massacred civilians in an attempt to scare them into submission. The most frightening thing about this spiral of ever greater violence and brutality is that some of the now-hardened lines have been sectarian.

The Syrian army assault on the rebellious Sunni village of al-Haffa in Latakia province, which has left it a ghost town, exemplifies this move toward religious war. Latakia is heavily Alawite, and protecting members of this religious group from Sunni dominance is one of the latent functions of the regime. The upper echelons of the ruling Baath Party and its officer corps are dominated by the Alawite sect of Shiite Islam. Only about ...

Published: Thursday 21 June 2012
“Instead, three and a half years after George W. Bush left office, his successor continues to insist that Iran surrender to Washington’s diktats or face attack.”


Since talks with Iran over its nuclear development started up again in April, U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that Tehran will not be allowed to “play for time” in the negotiations.  In fact, it is the Obama administration that is playing for time.

Some suggest that President Obama is trying to use diplomacy to manage the nuclear issue and forestall an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear targets through the U.S. presidential election.  In reality, his administration is “buying time” for a more pernicious agenda: time for covert action to sabotage Tehran’s nuclear program; time for sanctions to set the stage for regime change in Iran; and time for the United States, its European and Sunni Arab partners, and Turkey to weaken the Islamic Republic by overthrowing the Assad government in Syria.

Vice President Biden’s national security adviser, Antony J. Blinken, hinted at this in February, explaining that the administration’s Iran policy is aimed at “buying time and continuing to move this problem into the future, and if you can do that -- strange things can happen in the interim.”  Former Pentagon official Michèle Flournoy -- now out of government and advising Obama’s reelection campaign -- told an Israeli audience this month that, in the administration’s view, it is also important to go through the diplomatic motions before attacking Iran so as not to “

Published: Tuesday 19 June 2012
Published: Sunday 17 June 2012
Published: Saturday 16 June 2012
Published: Wednesday 13 June 2012
Published: Thursday 7 June 2012
Published: Wednesday 30 May 2012
Published: Tuesday 15 May 2012
“U.S. foreign policy may be as active as ever, but it is downsizing and becoming more exacting about its priorities and as a result, many global challenges – climate change, trade, resource scarcity, international security, cyber-warfare, and nuclear proliferation, to name a few – are bound to loom larger.”

The 2008 financial crisis marked the end of the global order as we knew it. In advance of the upcoming G-8 summit, it is impossible to overlook the fact that, for the first time in seven decades, the United States cannot drive the international agenda or provide global leadership on all of today’s most pressing problems.

Indeed, the US has trimmed its presence abroad by refusing to contribute to a eurozone bailout, intervene in Syria, or use force to contain Iran’s nuclear breakout (despite strong Israeli support). President Barack Obama officially ended the war in Iraq, and is withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan at a pace constrained only by the need to save face. America is handing off the leadership baton – even if no other country or group of countries is willing or able to grasp it.

In short, US foreign policy may be as active as ever, but it is downsizing and becoming more exacting about its priorities. As a result, many global challenges – climate change, trade, resource scarcity, international security, cyber-warfare, and nuclear proliferation, to name a few – are bound to loom larger.

 

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Published: Wednesday 9 May 2012
Published: Tuesday 8 May 2012
Published: Wednesday 2 May 2012
Published: Sunday 22 April 2012
Published: Saturday 21 April 2012
Published: Friday 13 April 2012
Published: Wednesday 11 April 2012
Published: Tuesday 10 April 2012
Published: Friday 6 April 2012
“Violence across the country has left at least 170 people dead so far this week, despite a pledge by President Bashar al-Assad to implement a peace plan.”

Fierce clashes have been reported between Syrian government forces and opposition fighters in Douma, near the capital Damascus, and in other parts of the country, amid doubts over the government's declared commitment to meeting an imminent ceasefire deadline.

 

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Thursday that violence against civilians had not stopped and that the year-long conflict was getting worse.

 

"Despite the Syrian government's acceptance of the joint special envoy's [Kofi Annan's] plan of initial proposals to resolve the crisis, the violence and assaults in civilian areas have not stopped," Ban told the U.N. General Assembly.

 

"The situation on the ground continues to deteriorate," he said.

 

The continuing violence comes as a U.N. monitoring team led by Major General Robert Mood is expected in Damascus on Thursday to review the government's promise of a troop withdrawal to army bases by Apr. 10.

 

Major General Mood is a former chief of staff of the Norwegian armed forces and former head of the U.N.'s Jerusalem-based UNTSO Middle East peacekeeping mission.

 

The U.N. Security Council is calling on Syria "to urgently and visibly" fulfill its pledge to halt the use of troops and heavy weapons in cities and towns by 6am Syria time on Apr. 12, giving the government and opposition groups 48 hours to end all hostilities.

 

The U.N. is already asking member nations to contribute about 200 to 250 soldiers who would monitor the ceasefire.

 

Challenge for Annan

 

Annan ...

Published: Tuesday 3 April 2012
An independent U.N. commission of inquiry has described the Syrian government’s offensive against civilians as possible “crimes against humanity.”

In addition to shooting unarmed civilians, Syrian military personnel routinely have raped women and girls, tortured children and encouraged troops to loot the houses they storm, former foot soldiers say.

 

"What I have seen with my own eyes, it was indescribable," said Rolat Azad, 21, who said he'd served as a master sergeant in Idlib province in the northeast of Syria. There, he commanded 10 men who'd break into houses seeking to arrest men whose names they'd been given by the country's intelligence agencies. "They gave us orders: 'You are free to do what you like,' " he recalled.

 

Starting last July, he said, his unit arrested and tortured five to 10 people daily. "We had a torture room on our base," he said. "There was physical torture — beatings — and psychological tortures," said Azad, a Syrian Kurd who deserted and fled in March to the Kurdistan region of Iraq. "They also brought women and girls through. They put them in the closed room and called soldiers to rape them."

 

The women often were killed, he said.

 

 Azad — as with other former soldiers here, the name is a pseudonym assumed to protect his family, still in Syria — was interviewed at a camp that Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government set up for Syrian army deserters. He recalled the torture of two young teenage boys. He said they'd been arrested either for shooting videos of the military or showing disrespect for the military and the regime, something that wasn't uncommon, even among children. "I once asked a small kid why he wasn't going to school," Azad said. "He said, 'We won't until this regime is gone.' "

 

 One boy, about 13, was brought into the torture room and given electrical shocks, Azad said. Another, 14, was brought into the room in late ...

Published: Tuesday 3 April 2012
“Supporting the armed resistance with foreign military power would demoralize and disempower those in the nonviolent resistance who are daily risking their lives for their freedom.”

Although the impulse to try to end the ongoing repression by the Syrian regime against its own people through foreign military intervention is understandable, it would be a very bad idea.

Empirical studies have repeatedly demonstrated that international military interventions in cases of severe repression actually exacerbate violence in the short term and can only reduce violence in the longer term if the intervention is impartial or neutral. Other studies demonstrate that foreign military interventions actually increase the duration of civil wars, making the conflicts longer and bloodier, and the regional consequences more serious, than if there were no intervention. In addition, military intervention would likely trigger a "gloves off" mentality that would dramatically escalate the violence on both sides.

Even putting aside the recent historical record, however, virtually anyone familiar with Syrian politics and history can recognize the fallacy of such foreign support for the armed struggle.

Many nonviolent protesters have tragically been killed, as will many more. However, proportionately a far greater number of armed resisters have been killed and will continue to be killed. The question is not whether thousands will continue to die but what is the best way for the Syrian people to overthrow the hated regime, end the violence and bring democracy and social justice.

Violence vs. Nonviolence

The vast majority of the hundreds of thousands of Syrians engaged in the ongoing resistance against the regime are nonviolent. Some support the simultaneous armed struggle; some don't. However, there is little question that the regime fears ...

Published: Sunday 1 April 2012
What has also been shredded is the naive belief that Assad would fall in Syria as did Hosni in Egypt and wind up, to the delight of the vengeful, in a defendant’s cage.

For more than a year now, the best minds in Washington have assured me (and you) that the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad is about to fall. These assurances are always delivered with great confidence, winks and nods oozing gravitas, and yet the wispy Assad, an ophthalmologist masquerading as a despot, hangs on, slaughtering his own people, destroying and despoiling whole neighborhoods, calling the bluff of the Arab League, the Turks and even the European Union, which just the other day — in a measure apparently intended to give Assad a fatal case of the giggles — banned his wife from shopping on the Continent. Sherman was right: War is hell.

Having sheathed his credit card, Assad pressed on with his war that has cost as many as 10,000 lives, produced well over 100,000 refugees, and brought large-scale misery to Syria. But it has also lifted “the veil of fear” — a useful phrase coined by former assistant secretary of state James P. Rubin. He used it to refer to the once-widespread belief that the Assad were invincible and that to challenge them would bring the most horrendous consequences. This is no longer the case. A great many people have been challenging them for some time now. The costs have been great, but the insurrection goes on nonetheless. The veil has been shredded.

What has also been shredded is the naive belief that Assad would fall in Syria as did Hosni in Egypt and wind up, to the delight of the vengeful, in a defendant’s cage. But Mubarak either would not or could not use unrestrained force against his own people. Assad did, and will ...

Published: Saturday 31 March 2012
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Published: Sunday 18 March 2012
“Some defenders of Web anonymity hold that not only was the Gay Girl blog not evil, it was a potential force for good.”

Who is writing that brilliant, stupid, nasty, brave and/or dishonest online comment? We haven't a clue, because the author hasn't shared his or her name, hometown, gender, age and/or nationality. Or even worse, the author pretends to be another real person. Scammers, misfits, crooks, creeps, criminals and nice people all venture through cyberspace without identifying themselves. We can only guess what they're up to.

Web anonymity is often a force for evil in the civic conversation. There is the celebrated case of the blog known as "Gay Girl in Damascus." Followed by many and quoted by some journalists as an authority on events in Syria, the gay girl turned out to be a 40-year-old married American man writing from Scotland.

Some defenders of Web anonymity hold that not only was the Gay Girl blog not evil, it was a potential force for good. Maybe the author wasn't really a lesbian in Syria. The blog did help real gay men and lesbians by giving them a forum in a country where homosexuality is shunned or worse.

But did it? How could gay Syrians know that they were really communicating with other gay Syrians? A forum participant may have been a heterosexual teen in Dallas or a table of drunken friends in Seattle having fun at another's expense. "He" or "she" could have been a homophobic resident of Damascus, luring local gays ...

Published: Friday 9 March 2012
“The only realistic way to do so is with foreign air power,” declared McCain, whose strategy was swiftly endorsed by his two hawkish fellow-travelers, Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham and independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

This week was supposed to be all about Iran – at least, that's how Israel and its powerful U.S. lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), had planned it - and why the U.S. should prepare to bomb it very, very soon if its leadership doesn't cave into Western demands to abandon its nuclear programme.

 

By week's end, however, the most urgent foreign policy issue with which U.S. policy-makers – and their media camp followers – were grappling was whether to bomb Syria first instead.

 

Remarkably, the sudden deviation was triggered by Tuesday's dramatic call on the floor of the Senate by Republican Sen. John McCain for the U.S. to provide decisive support to rebels battling to oust the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

 

"The only realistic way to do so is with foreign air power," declared McCain, whose strategy was swiftly endorsed by his two hawkish fellow-travellers, Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham and independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

 

"The United States should lead an international effort to protect key population centres in Syria, especially in the north, through airstrikes on Assad's forces," he declared, touching off a vigorous new debate ...

Published: Thursday 8 March 2012
“The Obama administration has called for Assad to step down but can do little on its own to make that happen.”

Any U.S. military effort to protect civilians in Syria zone would take weeks to implement, the top Pentagon civilian and military officials said Wednesday, underscoring the limited U.S. options for ending President Bashar Assad's violent campaign against Syrian rebels.

Another option — a full-fledged military campaign against Assad — would take even longer and would have to begin unilaterally as the United States is the only nation whose military could weaken Syria's vast air defense systems, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services committee.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta added that Assad's air defense systems are located within population centers, which would likely lead to civilian casualties.

There would be "severe collateral damage," Panetta said.

Panetta and Dempsey offered the first outlines of what a military campaign would look like even as they cautioned increasingly frustrated members of Congress against unilateral U.S. military action against the Assad regime. The Obama administration has called for Assad to step down but can do little on its own to make that happen — exposing its limited options for alleviating a crisis that President Barack Obama called "heartbreaking and outrageous" at a White House news conference on Tuesday.

At least 7,500 civilians have been killed as parts of Syria have endured weeks-long barrages by Assad's forces, according to the United Nations. The U.N. humanitarian chief, Valerie Amos, visited the besieged city of Homs on Wednesday and said that it was "completely devastated," the BBC reported.

Panetta told the Senate panel that the Obama administration was trying to build an international consensus, adding that without international legal justification, intervening would be a mistake. However, Russia and China have blocked action by the U.N. Security Council, ...

Published: Tuesday 6 March 2012
“McCain, who is the top Republican on the Armed Services committee, framed the U.S. role as a moral and national security imperative, and suggested modeling a U.S.-led effort on action taken by the international community in the Balkans.”

Republican Sen. John McCain said the United States should lead a military air assault on government forces in Syria, arguing the Obama administration's continued efforts at diplomacy and sanctions against the Assad regime is "starting to look more like a hope than strategy."

The influential GOP senator becomes the highest ranking member of Congress to call directly for U.S.-led airstrikes to support the Syrian Free Army and other opposition sources battling President Bashar al-Assad's military attacks on civilians.

"The president must state unequivocally that under no circumstances will Assad be allowed to finish what he has started, that there is no future in which Assad and his lieutenants will remain in control of Syria, and that the United States is prepared to use the full weight of our airpower to make it so," McCain said in a speech Monday in the Senate. "The Syrian people deserve to succeed, and shame on us if we fail to help them."

Defense hawks in Congress have previously suggested the United States could play a "junior role" in an international effort to support the Syrian resistance with military and logistical aid as lawmakers seek more information about the various groups and alliances fighting the regime. A United Nations resolution calling on Assad to step down failed last month as two key members of the Security Council, Russia and China, objected.

McCain, who is the top Republican on the Armed Services committee, framed the U.S. role as a moral and national security imperative, and suggested modeling a U.S.-led effort on action taken by the international community in the Balkans.

Saying that Homs, the Syrian city government troops have been pummeling, "is lost," McCain said military intervention now could establish "safe havens" in other parts of the country that could be used by opposition forces for organizing.

"The United States ...

Published: Tuesday 21 February 2012
“Iskander Witwit, the deputy chairman of Parliament’s security committee, said the nature of some of the attacks in Syria had alerted Iraqi officials months ago to the likelihood that al Qaida-affiliated fighters had transferred their efforts to the anti-Assad cause.”

The departure of al Qaida-affiliated fighters from Iraq to join the rebellion against Syrian President Bashar Assad in Syria has had one benefit, Iraqi officials say: Violence has dropped in this country, in some areas by as much as 50 percent in just a few months.

Iraqi officials declined to provide precise figures for the drop-off or to estimate how many al Qaida-affiliated fighters have left the country for Syria. But the impact of the departure, they said, has been especially apparent in Ninewah province, which borders Syria and has long been the scene of some of al Qaida in Iraq's most violent bombings and assassinations.

The province's capital, Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, was once home to as many as 800 al Qaida-affiliated fighters, U.S. officials estimated last summer. But one provincial security officer said al Qaida in Iraq attacks in Mosul have become infrequent this year, and the attacks that do occur generally are small or are detected before they can be carried out. The officer spoke only on the condition of anonymity because regulations prohibit him from talking to reporters.

"Violence is down in Mosul, maybe one or two operations per day, sometimes none," the officer said Monday. "Today, members of (al Qaida in Iraq) attempted to booby-trap a house, but they were discovered and the operation failed. Yesterday, two IEDs" — improvised explosive devices — "were planted and both were discovered, and they failed again. The day before that there were no operations at all."

As for the rest of the province, "I can say that violence is down more than 50 percent since autumn of 2011, and much more than that if compared with an earlier date, like autumn of 2010," the officer said.

Last Thursday, James R. Clapper, the Obama administration's director of national intelligence, told Congress that the United States thought al Qaida-affiliated fighters were ...

Published: Friday 17 February 2012
“[Assad] could be with us for a while yet, and it seems that behind the thunderous rhetoric the U.S. government may be accommodating to that fact.”

 

Few spectacles have been more surreal than senior U.S. officials — starting with the president, the secretary of state and the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. — solemnly lecturing Bashar al-Assad and his beleaguered Syrian government on the need to accommodate rebel forces whose sponsors are intent on slaughtering the ruling Alawite minority or driving them into the sea.

At one grimly hilarious moment last Friday, these worthy sermons were buttressed by a message from Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of al-Qaida, therefore presumably the No. 1 target on President Obama's hit list, similarly praising the "Lions of Syria" for rising up against the Assad regime. Al-Qaida and the White House are in sync!

The last time the United States faced serious internal dissent was in the 1960s and early 1970s, from war resisters and black and Native American movements. The government responded instantly with a methodical program of violent repression, including a well-documented agenda of assassination.

In 1993, the first year of the Clinton administration, federal agents launched an armed assault on a religious group in a compound outside Waco, Texas. Attorney General Janet Reno concluded that negotiation with the besieged Christian fundamentalists was useless and ordered an assault. Seventy-six Branch Davidians were burned ...

Published: Friday 17 February 2012
“A top U.S. official publicly confirmed the involvement of al Qaida in Iraq in the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad, which began nearly a year ago as peaceful protests for an end to his family’s four-decade-long rule.”

Al Qaida's Iraqi affiliate appears to have infiltrated Syrian opposition groups and was likely responsible for recent suicide bombings in Damascus and the industrial capital of Aleppo, senior U.S. intelligence officials told Congress Thursday.

"We believe that al Qaida in Iraq is extending its reach into Syria," Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper said in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

It was the first time that a top U.S. official publicly confirmed the involvement of al Qaida in Iraq, or AQI, in the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad, which began nearly a year ago as peaceful protests for an end to his family's four-decade-long rule.

Clapper's comments came one week after a McClatchy report quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying that AQI was responsible for suicide bombings in Damascus in December and January, and was believed to be behind two strikes last week in Aleppo. The four attacks targeted intelligence and security compounds and killed at least 70 people.

The U.S. officials told McClatchy that AQI was encouraged to become involved in Syria by Ayman al Zawahiri, the Egyptian extremist who assumed the leadership of al Qaida's Pakistan-based core group after U.S. special forces killed Osama bin Laden in May.

Published: Saturday 11 February 2012
“In virtually every one of these resolutions, the United States cast the sole negative vote in the otherwise-unanimous 15-member Security Council.”

Official Washington has been rife with condemnation at the decision by the governments of Russia and China to veto an otherwise unanimous UN Security Council resolution condemning the ongoing repression in Syria and calling for a halt to violence on all sides; unfettered access for Arab League monitors; and "a Syrian-led political transition to a democratic, plural political system, in which citizens are equal regardless of their affiliations or ethnicities or beliefs."

Human rights activists were outraged, as they should be. What is striking, however, is the response from US officials and pundits so roundly condemning the use of the veto by these two permanent members of the Security Council to protect the Syrian regime from accountability for its savage repression against its own citizens.

READ FULL POST 28 COMMENTS

Published: Saturday 11 February 2012
“Landis believes that Washington will eventually arm the opposition, noting that Qatar and others in the Gulf have begun to supply weapons, albeit not yet of the kind and quantity that could seriously threaten the regime.”

What with rumors from Israel of war on Iran, a major showdown with the Egyptian military over the indictments of government- funded U.S. activists in Cairo, and continuing political paralysis in Iraq, you would think President Barack Obama has enough Middle East crises to deal with.

But in the aftermath of last weekend's Russian and Chinese vetoes at the U.N. Security Council of an Arab League-sponsored resolution calling for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down as part of a transition leading to elections, calls for Washington to take stronger action, including arming rebel forces, have grown much louder here.

So far, the administration has resisted the pressure, focusing instead on convening a "Friends of Syria" contact group of anti-Assad Western and Arab states to ensure that whatever support may be provided to the chronically fractious opposition is coordinated to the greatest possible extent.

Washington is particularly eager to coordinate policy with Turkey whose foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, arrived here Thursday.

Citing the precedent of last year's U.S. intervention in Libya, three of the Senate's most hawkish members said Wednesday sanctions and the creation of the contact group were not enough.

"In Libya, the threat of imminent atrocities in Benghazi mobilized the world to act," Sens. John McCain, Lindsay Graham, and Joe Lieberman, said in a joint statement. "Such atrocities are now a reality in Homs and other cities all across Syria. More than 6,000 lives have been lost, and there is no end in sight."

"We must consider, among other actions, providing opposition groups inside Syria, both political and military, with better means to organize their activities …, to defend themselves, and to fight back against Assad's forces," urged the three senators.

Their remarks echoed those of neo-conservatives and other hawks who have been ...

Published: Wednesday 1 February 2012
“Syria has not had much experience in democracy. Its brief democratic period following independence was aborted by a CIA-supported coup in 1949.”

The Syrian pro-democracy struggle has been both an enormous tragedy and a powerful inspiration. Indeed, as someone who has studied mass nonviolent civil insurrections in dozens of countries in recent decades, I know of no people who have demonstrated such courage and tenacity in the face of such savage repression as have the people of Syria these past 10 months.

The resulting decline in the legitimacy of Bashar al-Assad's government gives hope that the opposition will eventually win. The question is how many more lives will be lost until then.

While the repressive nature of regime has never been in question, many observers believed it would be smarter and more ...

Published: Wednesday 25 January 2012
“[Diaz] pointed out that measures providing immunity from prosecution for political or military leaders, who may be responsible for human rights violations, war crimes and/or crimes against humanity, are not only a slap in the face of the victims, but they also eat away at the still fragile gains made to consolidate international justice and fight impunity.”

As ousted political and military leaders in the Middle East continue to seek immunity from war crimes prosecutions, the United Nations and international human rights groups are taking an increasingly tough stance against such legislation in Yemen, Egypt, and possibly in a post-conflict Syria.

"I think it's extremely serious," Jose Luis Diaz, who heads the Amnesty International office at the United Nations, told IPS.

He pointed out that measures providing immunity from prosecution for political or military leaders, who may be responsible for human rights violations, war crimes and/or crimes against humanity, are not only a slap in the face of the victims, but they also eat away at the still fragile gains made to consolidate international justice and fight impunity.

After 33 years of repressive rule, President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen has agreed to step down from office - following nearly 12 months of street protests - in exchange for immunity from prosecution, under a law passed by parliament last week.

In Egypt, the interim ruling military council is negotiating with the incoming government, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, for immunity from prosecution for military leaders responsible for the killings of peaceful demonstrators last year.

And if beleaguered Syrian President Bashar al-Assad relents to international pressure and decides to step down, it is very likely he will seek immunity from prosecution as part of a negotiated deal.

"We came out strongly against the immunity law for Saleh before it was adopted, as we consider it to be in breach of Yemen's obligations under international law to investigate and prosecute human rights violations," Luis Diaz told IPS.

He said that Saleh and others may feel safe from prosecution in Yemen for now, but the immunity law would not necessarily protect them from the courts elsewhere for some of ...

Published: Monday 9 January 2012
“Turkey is engaged in an intricate effort to preserve its old relationship with the West while building new ties with its Muslim neighbors.”

Turkey has over the past few weeks become the spearhead of a joint Western-Arab-Turkish policy aimed at forcing President Bashar al-Assad to cede power in Syria. This is quite a turnaround in Turkish policy, because over the past two years the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had gone out of its way to cultivate good relations with neighboring Syria, with whom it shares a long land border.

This change of course on Syria has also cost Turkey a great deal in terms of its relations with Iran, the principal supporter of Assad’s regime, which Turkey had also cultivated as part of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy.

Given these new strains, it is worth recalling that a only few months ago many American leaders were livid at what they perceived to be Turkey’s betrayal. In their view, Turkey had re-oriented its foreign policy toward the Muslim Middle East and away from the West – a shift supposedly reflected in the country’s deteriorating relations with Israel and improving ties with Iran and Syria.

"Follow Project Syndicate on Facebook or Twitter. For more from Mohammed Ayoob, click here."

Many American policymakers and publicists, unable or unwilling to distinguish Turkish-Israeli relations from Turkish-American relations, interpreted Erdoğan’s condemnation of Israel’s blockade of Gaza as a bid to cozy up to his Arab neighbors at the expense of Turkey’s relations with not only Israel but with the West in general. Turkey’s attempt to mediate between the major Western powers and Iran concerning the Islamic Republic’s uranium stockpile went ...

Published: Friday 6 January 2012
“In surveys, 84% of Egyptians and 66% of Lebanese regarded democracy and economic prosperity as the Arab Spring’s goal.”

The self-immolation a year ago of Tunisian street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi triggered a wave of popular protests that spread across the Arab world, forcing out dictators in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. Now, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, too, seems near the end of his rule.

Together, these movements for change have come to be known as the Arab Spring. But what values are driving these movements, and what kind of change do their adherents want? A series of surveys in the Arab world last summer highlights some significant shifts in public opinion.

In surveys, 84% of Egyptians and 66% of Lebanese regarded democracy and economic prosperity as the Arab Spring’s goal. In both countries, only about 9% believed that these movements aimed to establish an Islamic government.

"Follow Project Syndicate on Facebook or Twitter. For more from Mansoor Moaddel, click here."

For Egypt, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, where trend data are available, the Arab Spring reflected a significant shift in people’s values concerning national identity. In 2001, only 8% of Egyptians defined themselves as Egyptians above all, while 81% defined themselves as Muslims. In 2007, the results were roughly the same.

In the wake of the Arab Spring, however, these numbers changed dramatically: those defining themselves as Egyptians rose to 50%, 2% more than those who defined themselves as Muslims.  Among Iraqis, primary self-identification in national terms jumped from 23% of respondents in 2004 to 57% in 2011. Among Saudis, the figure jumped from 17% in 2003 to 46% in 2011, while the share of those claiming a primary Muslim identity dropped from 75% to 44%.

There has also been a shift toward secular politics ...

Published: Saturday 10 December 2011
“Rarely does a state of unity pre-exist; it must be created in order to succeed, and this requires some form of democratic decision making.”

Egypt began its first round of balloting in November, one of the outcomes of the January uprising that ousted the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. This followed the military’s attempt to hold onto power by using draconian measures against renewed protests in Tahrir Square, where military and police killed 40 and injured 2,000. With two more rounds of voting remaining, it is small wonder that many Egyptians are afraid of what is to come. Early indications are that the Muslim Brotherhood will show well in free parliamentary elections, and the more doctrinaire Salafists will claim seats. Debates over the prospects for the Arab Awakening now rage as a result.

After a spellbindingly rapid series of events in the Middle East in the early months of this year, progress seems to have slowed. The liberal spirit that characterized those nonviolent revolutions appears to be dissipating in favor of old rivalries—as well as the specter that new forms of repression will simply replace their predecessors.

What’s happening now in Egypt and Tunisia—to say nothing of Bahrain and Syria—is also bringing back to the fore worn-out arguments claiming that nonviolent struggle works slowly, while violence is quick. Efficient, even.

This kind of argument is often given as a justification for not taking the time to investigate or learn how to fight with nonviolent struggle. I have heard this view advanced by communists, Baathists, Marxists and radical proponents of armed struggle, despite the fact that, until recently, few empirical evaluations have been conducted to determine whether it is actually ...

Published: Sunday 4 December 2011
“This has not come, in most cases, from a moral or spiritual commitment to nonviolence per se, but simply because it works.”

While sitting in a Cairo café just a couple blocks from Tahrir Square a couple months ago, I couldn't help but notice the television in the corner broadcasting the evening news. Traditionally, TV news in Egypt and other Arab countries has consisted of the president (or king) giving a speech, greeting a foreign visitor, visiting a factory, or engaging in some other official function. This evening, however, the news was about a labor strike in Alexandria, relatives of those killed during the February revolution protesting outside the Interior Ministry, and ongoing developments in the pro-democracy struggles in Yemen and Syria.

Nothing could better illustrate the profound change in the Arab world over the past year: It is no longer simply the leaders who were the newsmakers. It is Arab peoples themselves.

READ FULL POST 3 COMMENTS

Published: Saturday 26 November 2011
The deadline the Arab League had set for Syria has passed, and forced the Arab League to take action.

A deadline the Arab League had set for Syria to sign a deal allowing observers into the country to monitor whether the government was adhering to a peace plan expired Friday without any Syrian response, setting the stage for the league to impose sanctions on the regime of President Bashar Assad.

Turkey's foreign minister said his country would coordinate with the Arab League on imposing sanctions, an indication of the extent to which the international community has lined up to force Assad to end his bloody crackdown on anti-government demonstrators, which has taken the lives of an estimated 3,500 people. Turkey once was considered a close Assad ally.

"There is excellent coordination between Turkey and the Arab League," Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said at a news conference he held with Jordan's foreign minister. "We share every step we make and every position we develop."

Davutoglu said Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan would attend a meeting of Arab League finance ministers Saturday to decide what to do next and that he himself would participate in a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers tentatively set for Sunday. He said he was continuing to consult with the European Union, NATO and U.N. Security Council members on what next steps should be taken to increase pressure on Assad's regime. He met Friday with Italy's foreign minister as well.

Davutoglu warned that Syria would be isolated by Turkey, Arab countries and the entire international community if it ...

Published: Monday 21 November 2011
“The United Nations estimates that over 3,500 civilians have been killed in [Syrian] protests since they began in March.”

Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), a proponent of diplomacy and peaceful resolution to conflict, wrote to the President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, calling for an end to the violent crackdown in Syria and for open, free and fair elections.

 

The full text of the letter follows:

Dear President Assad:

The democratic aspirations of the people of Syria cannot and should not be denied. While it is well established that armed insurgents have been working to foment a civil war in Syria, the impact of which further threatens the peace and stability of the region, it is also well established that the crackdown by regime security forces has killed thousands of innocent people. In the continuing interest of ending the violence and moving decisively toward reform, I make the following recommendation.

The time has come for you to call for open, free and fair elections in Syria. If you lead the way in this call, it will be a clear sign that you choose to rely on the ...

Published: Saturday 12 November 2011
As a delayed response to the bloodshed in Syria, The Arab League suspended Syria's participation.

After months of indecision on a response to the bloodshed in Syria, the Arab League on Saturday suspended Syria’s participation and sought other extraordinary censures that reflect the shifting powers in the region after this year’s Arab uprisings.

The decision to freeze Syrian delegates’ activities stopped just short of full membership suspension. In addition, the Arab League warned of political and economic sanctions, urged Arab states to withdraw their envoys from Damascus, and called on Syrian forces to reject orders to fire on the protesters revolting against President Bashar Assad’s authoritarian rule.

“We were criticized for taking a long time, but this was out of our concern for Syria,” Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al Thani, who led the committee on Syria, told reporters in Cairo. “We needed to have a majority to approve those decisions.”

The 22-member, Cairo-based Arab League surprised political observers with Saturday’s measures, which went well beyond what anyone had expected from a body that’s been long regarded as calcified and toothless. Analysts used words such as “watershed” and “historic” as they parsed the announcement on Twitter.

The Arab League also invited the main Syrian opposition umbrella group to Cairo to hold talks. "We are calling all Syrian opposition parties to a meeting at the Arab League headquarters to agree a unified vision for the transitional period," Thani said.

Few predict a chastened response from the defiant Assad, whose ...

Published: Friday 11 November 2011
“From Tunis to Tel Aviv, Madrid to Oakland, a new generation of youth activists is challenging the neoliberal state that has dominated the world ever since the Cold War ended.”

From Tunis to Tel Aviv, Madrid to Oakland, a new generation of youth activists is challenging the neoliberal state that has dominated the world ever since the Cold War ended.  The massive popular protests that shook the globe this year have much in common, though most of the reporting on them in the mainstream media has obscured the similarities.   

Whether in Egypt or the United States, young rebels are reacting to a single stunning worldwide development: the extreme concentration of wealth in a few hands thanks to neoliberal policies of deregulation and union busting.  They have taken to the streets, parks, plazas, and squares to protest against the resulting corruption, the way politicians can be bought and sold, and the impunity of the white-collar criminals who have run riot in societies everywhere.  They are objecting to high rates of unemployment, reduced social services, blighted futures, and above all the substitution of the market for all other values as the matrix of human ethics and life.

Pasha the Tiger

In the “glorious thirty years” after World War II, North America and Western Europe achieved remarkable rates of economic growth and relatively low levels of inequality for capitalist societies, while instituting a broad range of benefits for workers, students, and retirees.  From roughly 1980 on, however, the neoliberal movement, rooted in the laissez-faire ...

Published: Wednesday 26 October 2011
According to anthropologist John Borneman, “The public renunciation of the son’s claim to inherit the father’s power definitively ends the specific Arab model of succession that has been incorporated into state dictatorships among tribal authorities.”

The October 19 death of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi allows us to see more clearly an underlying force at work in the Arab Awakening. From Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, movements have sought to end the presumption of father-son inheritance of rule. The passing on of power from father to son has been a characteristic of patriarchal tribal societies, in the Arab world and elsewhere. In Europe, the feudal system worked the same way. Yet democracies demand that power be passed on merit and popular acclaim, and not as an hereditary right.

One of the most remarkable features of the popular revolts of 2011 is a dialectic between archaic patrilineal dynasties that call themselves democracies and popular civil resistance movements that display their commitment to genuine democracy by remaining essentially leaderless—making all of those who take part in some sense a leader. The course of the violent rebellion in Libya has followed this pattern in some respects, but not in others.

In Tunisia, early in the 23-year politically repressive regime of president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, political activists and scholars were aware of the extent of the clan’s corruption, and as the family took over national enterprises in 1995–2005 privatization schemes, knowledge of it became commonplace. Mohamed Bouazizi, 26, an unemployed fruit and vegetable seller set himself on fire in the central Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid on December 17, 2010, sparking the “jasmine revolution.” Workers initially kindled the uprising, and the largest cities lit up in turn after a successful general strike in Sfax on January 12. Professionals, traders, merchants, and financiers soon joined as well, many of whom had been allied with the Bourguiba regime and with Ben Ali in his early years. The upheaval expanded to the upper crust as, on January 8, a delegation of business executives from Sousse, Ben Ali’s base, called the presidential palace in ...

Published: Monday 29 August 2011
“President Obama is not President Bush, and I don't think that for a moment that Obama is seeking excuses to bomb and invade Middle East countries, as Bush was.”

Muammar Gaddafi is (pretty much) gone, and right on cue there’s increasing talk about applying the Libya “model” to Syria. Meanwhile, I’m more worried that eventually they’ll get around to applying that “model” to Iran.

 
The New York Times carries a piece titled: “U.S. Tactics in Libya May Be a Model for Other Efforts.” By model, of course, they mean the mobilization of lethal force, including coordinated bombing attacks and precision missile strikes, tied closely to rebel military tactics, jointly run by the United States and NATO. In it, President Obama’s advisers – including Ben Rhodes, the humanitarian interventionist hawk who supported the U.S. war in Libya – suggest that the Libyan action might easily be applied elsewhere. “How much we translate to Syria remains to be seen,” says one adviser, anonymously. And the Times notes:

 
“The very fact that the administration has joined with the same allies that it banded with on Libya to call for Mr. Assad to go and to impose penalties on his regime could take the United States one step closer to applying the Libya model toward Syria.”


Meanwhile, the Washington Post 

Published: Thursday 25 August 2011
“Two words capture every important dimension of the Arab Awakening: ‘humiliation’ and ‘legitimacy.’”

When Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in rural Tunisia on December 17, 2010, he set in motion a dynamic that goes far beyond the overthrow of individual dictators. We are witnessing nothing less than the awakening, throughout the Arab world, of several phenomena that are critical for stable statehood: the citizen, the citizenry, legitimacy of authority, a commitment to social justice, genuine politics, national self-determination and, ultimately, true sovereignty. It took hundreds of years for the United States and Western Europe to develop governance and civil society systems that affirmed those principles, even if incompletely or erratically, so we should be realistic in our expectations of how long it will take Arab societies to do so.

The countries where citizens are more actively agitating or fighting for their rights—Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen are the most advanced to date—have very different local conditions and forms of governance, with ruling elites displaying a wide range of legitimacy in the eyes of their people. Governments have responded to the challenge in a variety of ways, from the flight of the Tunisian and Egyptian leaderships to violent military repression in Syria, Libya and Bahrain, to the attempt to negotiate limited constitutional transformations in Jordan, Morocco and Oman. A few countries that have not experienced major demonstrations—Algeria and Sudan are the most significant—are likely to experience domestic effervescence in due course. Only the handful of wealthy oil producers (like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) seem largely exempt, for now, from this wave of citizen demands.

Two words capture every important dimension of the Arab ...

Published: Friday 19 August 2011
“Human rights activists put the death toll in Syria at around 2,000 since the unrest began as part of the springtime wave of Arab protests.”

President Barack Obama on Thursday issued his first explicit call for the ouster of Syrian President Bashar Assad and imposed the harshest sanctions yet on Assad's assets in hopes of choking off funding for a deadly crackdown against anti-government protesters.

Obama's statement that it was time for Assad to "step aside" was issued in concert with several European allies, who also demanded for the first time that the Syrian leader leave office over his regime's brutal response to a five-month-old popular uprising.

"The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al Assad is standing in their way," the president's statement said. "His calls for dialogue and reform have rung hollow while he is imprisoning, torturing and slaughtering his own people."

Similarly worded statements came from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the European Union.

The tougher talk followed weeks of reluctance by the United States and European and Arab allies to call for Assad's resignation, apparently out of worry over who'd follow the Assad family after its four decades in power.

On Thursday, the White House left little room to question its stance: Obama signed an executive order to freeze all Syrian government assets within U.S. jurisdiction and banned American citizens everywhere from doing business with the regime. That degree of economic isolation puts Syria on par with pariah states such as North Korea and Myanmar.

Human rights activists put the death toll in Syria at around 2,000 since the unrest began as part of the springtime wave of Arab protests.

The pressure on Assad could increase even further if Europe — the recipient of the vast majority of Syria's oil and gas exports — follows suit in imposing harsh new petroleum sanctions. The Dow Jones Newswires reported that European ambassadors would consider such action in a ...

Published: Thursday 18 August 2011
For all of their wealth and planning, the Saudis remain vulnerable to the turmoil surrounding them.

Saudi Arabia is widely perceived as leading the counter-revolution against the Arab Spring uprisings. In reality, the Kingdom’s response is centered, as its foreign and domestic policy has long been, on “stability.” The Saudis don’t want anti-Saudi forces, including such enemies as Iran and Al Qaeda, to increase their influence in the Middle East.

Some of the older Saudi leaders have seen this movie before. The nationalist revolutions of the 1950’s and 1960’s, inspired and galvanized by Gamel Nasser’s Egypt, nearly toppled the House of Saud. Nonetheless, today’s Saudi princes appear to recognize that something has genuinely changed in the Middle East: The younger generation of Arabs is no longer prepared to accept unaccountable, corrupt, and brutal governments.

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Saudi ...

Published: Monday 8 August 2011
Published: Monday 8 August 2011
Published: Saturday 6 August 2011
Published: Friday 5 August 2011
Published: Thursday 4 August 2011
Published: Thursday 4 August 2011
Published: Thursday 4 August 2011
Published: Tuesday 2 August 2011
"The people of Syria should not be forced to pay the price by those concerned that the Security Council overstepped on Libya," Peggy Hicks noted.

The U.N. Security Council has continued to remain politically paralysed on the indiscriminate killings of civilians in Syria, and that paralysis, according to U.N. diplomats, has been triggered ironically by the ongoing turmoil in another Arab nation - Libya.

The devastation caused by Western military forces in Libya - justified under the guise of protecting civilian lives - is deterring at least two veto-wielding permanent members of the Council, namely Russia and China, from supporting any strong action against Syria.

The Chinese and the Russians believe, one U.N. diplomat told IPS, that "Western countries are likely to misinterpret any resolution against Syria and then unleash military attacks on Damascus - as they did with Libya."

Peggy Hicks, global advocacy director at Human Rights Watch, told IPS the reluctance by some member states, particularly the global south leaders, seems motivated by concern over Libya.

But it is high time for those issues to be overcome by the urgent need for the Security Council to speak out about Syria, she added.

"The people of Syria should not be forced to pay the price by those concerned that the Security Council overstepped on Libya," Hicks noted.

The resolution on Libya, adopted last May by a vote of 10:0, authorised member states to "take all necessary measures" - a code word for military intervention - to protect civilians and civilian- populated areas under threat of attack from Gaddafi's forces.

The result: continued bombing of Libya by military forces from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) on the pretext of "protecting civilians".

But five countries in the 15-member Security Council decided to abstain on that resolution: China, Russia, India, Brazil and Germany.

At least four of those five countries are now resisting any condemnation of Syria.

Phyllis Bennis, director of the New Internationalism ...

Published: Tuesday 2 August 2011
The government's severe measures on protesters in Syria increases in violence as Muslim holy month of Ramadan has begun

The government crackdown on protesters in Syria has reached a new level of violence just as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has begun. At least six people were killed earlier today, pushing the toll to at least 150 over the last two days. An attack on the central city of Hama began Sunday when more than 100 people were killed by government forces, and continued into Monday with another 24 dead across the country. Syria has banned most foreign journalists, making it hard to verify exactly what is happening there. We speak with Ziad Majed, assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the American University of Paris and coordinator of the Arab Network for the Study of Democracy.

Published: Sunday 31 July 2011
Published: Friday 29 July 2011
Published: Wednesday 27 July 2011
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