A new peer-reviewed study warns that the Earth is on a dangerous trajectory toward breaching multiple environmental “tipping points” that could cause long-term and irreversible damage to the planet’s climate systems unless immediate global action is taken to reduce fossil fuel emissions.
The study, published Wednesday in the journal Earth System Dynamics, comes from scientists at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom and the University of Hamburg in Germany. It evaluates the probability of triggering 16 distinct climate tipping points—thresholds beyond which rapid and uncontrollable environmental changes could occur—with potentially devastating consequences for humanity.
“Climate tipping points could have devastating consequences for humanity,” said co-author Tim Lenton in a statement. “It is clear that we are currently on a dangerous trajectory—with tipping points likely to be triggered unless we change course rapidly.”
Among the tipping points examined were the potential collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the loss of Arctic summer sea ice, thawing permafrost, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the extinction of low-latitude coral reefs, and the breakdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—a critical component of the global ocean current system.
To assess risk levels, the researchers used a scenario in which the Earth warms by a median 2.8°C by the end of the century, consistent with current climate policies. Under this trajectory, the study found that the “most conservative estimate of triggering probabilities averaged over all tipping points is 62%… and nine tipping points have a more than 50 percent probability of getting triggered.”
The study concludes that “rapid action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, since climate tipping points are already close, and it will be decided within the coming decades if they will be crossed or not.”
The authors emphasize that while the situation is urgent, there is still a window of opportunity to avoid the most catastrophic outcomes. “The good news from our study is that the power to prevent climate tipping points is still in our hands,” said lead author Jakob Deutloff. “By moving towards a more sustainable future with lower emissions, the risk of triggering these tipping points is significantly reduced. And it appears that breaching tipping points within the Amazon and the permafrost region should not necessarily trigger others.”
The researchers used five different “shared socioeconomic pathways” (SSPs) to model outcomes under various levels of emissions. The study found that reducing emissions drastically and avoiding temperature overshoot below 2°C can sharply lower the chances of tipping points being crossed. However, even under lower-emissions scenarios, the behavior of certain systems remains highly uncertain.
Lenton, who also serves as director of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, urged policymakers to think in terms of “positive tipping points” in human systems to avert disaster. “We need urgent global action—including the triggering of ‘positive tipping points’ in our societies and economies—to reach a safe and sustainable future,” he said.
The timing of the study’s release comes amid increasing calls for climate accountability and stronger governmental responses worldwide. It coincides with Covering Climate Now’s joint media week, highlighting the fact that 89% of people globally want their governments to do more to confront the climate crisis. It also precedes the Global Systems Institute’s upcoming conference on tipping points and comes just over six months before COP30, the next United Nations climate summit, scheduled to be held in Brazil.
Despite the mounting scientific evidence and growing public pressure, political momentum—particularly in the United States—has shifted toward fossil fuel expansion. Since returning to office in January, President Donald Trump has reversed key climate policies, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and signing executive orders to promote coal, oil, and gas production. He has also declared a national energy emergency aimed at boosting domestic fossil fuel development.
The shift comes in the wake of 2024, the hottest year in recorded human history. According to global scientists, continuing on this path would all but guarantee the breaching of multiple tipping points, leading to severe disruptions in weather patterns, food systems, and sea levels.
The study also provides some relief regarding one particularly feared scenario: a cascade effect, in which one tipping point triggers others in a chain reaction. Deutloff noted that “it appears that breaching tipping points within the Amazon and the permafrost region should not necessarily trigger others.” This finding suggests that while each tipping point remains dangerous, the risk of systemic collapse through domino effects may be more limited than previously feared.
Still, the warning remains clear. With nine of the sixteen tipping points already having a greater than 50% chance of being crossed on the current emissions trajectory, the need for accelerated action is urgent. What happens within the next few decades, the researchers say, will determine the long-term stability of the planet.
“The good news from our study is that the power to prevent climate tipping points is still in our hands,” said Jakob Deutloff.
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