A new international study warns that the world’s largest fossil fuel producers are planning to extract more than twice the amount of coal, oil, and gas consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5°C. The 2025 Production Gap Report, released by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, finds governments are “blundering backwards towards our fossil past” even after agreeing at the 2023 UN climate summit in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels.
The report’s topline finding is stark: “Governments plan to produce 120 percent the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 77 percent more than would be consistent with 2°C.” That represents a widening gap compared to the groups’ 2023 analysis, which showed a 110 percent overshoot for 1.5°C and 69 percent for 2°C.
The analysis reviewed plans from 20 major producers responsible for more than 80 percent of global fossil fuel extraction, including the United States, Russia, Canada, and Saudi Arabia. It found that “countries are now collectively planning even more fossil fuel production than two years ago.” Only three—Norway, the UK, and Australia—have plans to reduce oil and gas output by 2030. Eleven others, among them the U.S. and Germany, are on track to increase production of at least one fossil fuel.
Derik Broekhoff, lead author and senior scientist at SEI, said: “While many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago.”
The persistence of expansion plans comes despite clear evidence that fossil fuels are being outpaced economically. According to the report, “Clean energy attracted $2 trillion in investment last year—$800 billion more than fossil fuels, and a 70 percent increase since the Paris agreement. In 2024, 92 percent of new global power capacity came from renewables, which undercut fossil fuels on price, efficiency, and emissions—even with subsidies artificially keeping fossil fuel prices down” .
Still, analysts caution that falling demand could create perverse effects. Neil Grant of Climate Analytics warned: “We are in the foothills of an energy transition that is going to reshape fossil fuel demand. But many governments are thinking in terms of a world where the energy transition happens very incrementally. There’s a lot of danger, [including that] the voice of the fossil fuel lobby only gets louder and holds us back from this change to a cleaner, better, greener economy. That would lead to climate chaos or significant negative economic impacts.” In a statement, he added, “Governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past, but rapid reductions are possible, feasible, and they would make our lives better.”
The urgency was echoed by Emily Ghosh, program director at SEI. She told The Guardian that to stay within 1.5°C, “fossil fuel production should have peaked and started to fall,” adding: “Every year of delay significantly increases the pressure.”
The political stakes are particularly high in the United States, where President Donald Trump has dismantled renewable energy incentives and backed oil and gas expansion. Jean Su of the Center for Biological Diversity described his approach starkly: “Trump is fulfilling his dream of petrostate authoritarianism, backed by oil and gas billionaires. Unless we fight to stop it, the whole world is going to pay the price.” She added, “This report shows just how reckless the U.S. and other countries are in doubling down on fossil fuels. It’s astonishing that in the two years since countries agreed in Dubai to transition off fossil fuels, the U.S. is leading the abandonment of affordable renewables for deadly oil and gas.”
Kelly Trout of Oil Change International stressed that change remains possible: “With the U.S. driving the majority of global projected oil and gas expansion over the next decade, governments must resist bowing to the Trump administration’s pro-fossil fuel agenda, and instead seize the chance to rapidly shift course. Countries can still deliver the just energy transition away from fossil fuels they promised us two years ago, with other rich Global North producers taking the lead.”
The report arrives as momentum builds for global action. Colombia announced at the UN General Assembly that it would host the First International Conference for the Phaseout of Fossil Fuels, following the International Court of Justice’s July 2025 advisory opinion that countries have a legal obligation to protect the climate . Tzeporah Berman of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative called the Colombian announcement “a bold and necessary step towards climate leadership,” adding, “This conference offers a vital opportunity to translate growing support into concrete action, accelerating our shift towards a more sustainable and just energy future for all.”
The Production Gap Report’s bottom line is unequivocal: governments are now planning “even higher levels of coal production to 2035, and gas production to 2050, than they did in 2023. Planned oil production continues to increase to 2050. These plans undermine countries’ Paris Agreement commitments.”
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