An analysis of global energy markets indicates that the U.S.-led war in Iran has generated substantial financial gains for the world’s largest fossil fuel companies, with the top 100 oil and gas producers collectively earning an estimated $30 million per hour in windfall profits as petroleum prices surged following the outbreak of hostilities.
Research based on data from Rystad Energy and analyzed by climate watchdog Global Witness found that the escalation of conflict helped drive oil prices to an average of $100 per barrel in March, compared with approximately $70 per barrel before the war began. The increase in prices translated into an estimated $23 billion in windfall profits during the first month of the conflict alone. If oil prices remain at similar levels, total windfall profits could reach $234 billion by the end of the year.
The findings show how geopolitical instability can produce large financial gains for fossil fuel corporations while increasing costs for consumers worldwide. Higher petroleum prices influence transportation expenses, heating costs, electricity generation, and the price of goods affected by energy-intensive supply chains.
“The excess profits come from the pockets of ordinary people as they pay high prices to fill up their vehicles and power their homes, as well as from businesses incurring higher energy bills,” The Guardian reported. The publication noted that governments in several countries have reduced fuel taxes to ease the burden on consumers, meaning countries including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil and Zambia are collecting less revenue for public services.
Saudi Aramco is projected to earn approximately $25.5 billion in windfall profits if oil prices average $100 per barrel through 2026. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is expected to generate an estimated $12.1 billion in additional profits under similar conditions, while ExxonMobil is projected to receive approximately $11 billion in windfall earnings linked to the conflict.
Chevron is projected to generate $9.2 billion in windfall profits, while Shell is estimated to receive a $6.8 billion boost. Market valuations also increased following the start of the conflict. ExxonMobil’s market value rose by $118 billion in the month after the war began, while Shell’s value increased by $34 billion during the same period. Chevron’s chief executive, Mike Wirth, sold $104 million worth of Chevron shares between January and March.
Russian oil companies have also benefited from rising energy prices. Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil are projected to generate approximately $23.9 billion in windfall profits related to the Iran conflict. Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that Russia’s oil export revenues reached $840 million per day in March, representing a 50 percent increase compared with February.
The estimated windfall profits were calculated by comparing free cash flow generated from oil and gas production when oil averaged $100 per barrel in March with free cash flow generated when prices averaged approximately $70 per barrel prior to the war. The data reflects upstream profit after taxes, royalties, and operating expenditures, based on field-level production information integrated into Rystad Energy’s UCube database.
Higher energy prices have had ripple effects across global economies. Increased fuel costs affect household budgets and business expenses, contributing to inflationary pressure in multiple sectors. Governments attempting to mitigate the impact on consumers have reduced fuel taxes, which reduces public revenue available for government programs and services.
European policymakers have begun examining potential responses to the surge in profits. Finance ministers from Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria called for measures intended to ensure companies benefiting from war-driven price increases contribute to easing financial pressures on the public.
“It would make it possible to finance temporary relief, especially for consumers, and curb rising inflation, without placing additional burdens on public budgets,” the ministers wrote in an April 4 letter addressing the issue of windfall profits.
Since the start of the Iran war, the European Union’s fossil fuel import bill has increased by €22 billion, reflecting the economic impact of higher global energy prices.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, described the Iran war as the largest shock ever experienced by global energy markets, highlighting the scale of disruption triggered by supply instability.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that reliance on fossil fuels can expose economies to price volatility during geopolitical crises.
“Fossil fuel dependency is ripping away national security and sovereignty, and replacing it with subservience and rising costs,” Stiell said.
He added that renewable energy sources can provide greater insulation from supply shocks, stating, “Sunlight doesn’t depend on narrow and vulnerable shipping straits.”
Jess Ralston, head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said the recent surge in prices demonstrates long-standing vulnerabilities associated with fossil fuel reliance.
“This oil and gas crisis is illustrating yet again the cost of our dependence on volatile fossil fuels,” Ralston said.
“Investing in net zero technologies is not only the route to permanent energy security, it’s also the only way to get the climate system back into balance,” Ralston added.
Maria Pastukhova, energy transition programme leader at E3G, said global markets remain vulnerable to price shocks as long as economies depend heavily on fossil fuels.
“It doesn’t matter whether the molecules come from the North Sea or overseas; the UK exposure remains,” Pastukhova said. “More UK fossil fuel production is therefore a weak answer to energy insecurity.”
Climate advocacy organizations have renewed calls for governments to consider windfall profit taxes on fossil fuel companies. Proposals suggest revenue from such taxes could be invested in renewable energy infrastructure and consumer relief programs.
Beth Walker, an energy policy expert at E3G, said policy responses could influence the pace of transition toward lower-emission energy systems.
“Governments should use taxes on windfall profits to accelerate the transition to green energy, rather than deepen dependence on fossil fuels,” Walker said.
The fossil fuel sector has historically generated large profits even outside of crisis conditions. Analysts estimate the industry has produced approximately $1 trillion per year in profit on average over the last half century. According to the International Monetary Fund, explicit fossil fuel subsidies totaled $1.3 trillion in 2022.
Saudi Aramco, Shell and TotalEnergies declined to comment on the findings, while ExxonMobil, Chevron, Gazprom, Petrobras and ADNOC did not respond to requests for comment.
Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at Global Witness, said the pattern of crisis-driven profits demonstrates the financial consequences of continued reliance on fossil fuel markets.
“Moments of global crisis continue to translate into bumper profits for oil majors while ordinary people pay the price,” Galey said. “Until governments kick their fossil fuel addiction, all of our spending power will be held hostage to the whims of strongmen.”
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