A decade after the signing of the Paris Agreement, a new United Nations report released ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, warns that the planet is on track to exceed 1.5°C of global heating within the next few years. According to the report, governments’ current climate pledges would reduce emissions by just 10 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 levels—far below the 57 percent reduction scientists say is necessary to keep the 1.5°C threshold within reach.
The UN’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Synthesis Report includes climate action plans from fewer than one third of the Paris Agreement’s signatories, amounting to about 64 countries that represent roughly 30 percent of global emissions. The findings, described by campaigners as both “a progress update and a warning siren,” reveal that the collective effort of the world’s governments remains insufficient to prevent catastrophic warming.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged that the 1.5°C target—long considered the upper limit for avoiding the most severe impacts of the climate crisis—will soon be surpassed. “Overshooting is now inevitable,” he told The Guardian and the Amazon-based news outlet Sumaúma. “Let’s recognize our failure. The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5°C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5°C has devastating consequences. Some of these devastating consequences are tipping points, be it in the Amazon, be it in Greenland, or western Antarctica or the coral reefs.”
Guterres warned that it is “absolutely indispensable to change course in order to make sure that the overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon. We don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah. But that is a real risk if we don’t change course and if we don’t make a dramatic decrease of emissions as soon as possible.”
The report’s release comes at a time of both political and environmental turmoil. President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement for the second time and ordered a major expansion of fossil fuel extraction, even as renewable energy projects are being dismantled. Although the UN’s analysis still incorporates the U.S. pledge submitted during the final weeks of the Biden administration, Trump has stated that he has “no plans” to fulfill it.
Meanwhile, two of the world’s other major emitters—the European Union and China—have yet to submit updated national climate plans ahead of COP30. China has pledged to cut its carbon emissions by 7 to 10 percent of their peak by 2035, while the EU has been debating a reduction of between 62 and 72.5 percent. Together, the absence of updated targets from these powers significantly weakens the overall global commitment.
Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and one of the key architects of the 2015 Paris Agreement, called the latest findings sobering. “This report shows that we are going in the right direction but too slowly,” she said. “It is essential to acknowledge the missing national pledges and confront the persistent gap between ambition and actual implementation.”
The limited progress highlighted by the UN coincides with new policies that appear to contradict global climate goals. Just a week before the report’s publication, Brazil’s government announced it would open sections of the Amazon rainforest to oil drilling—even as the country prepares to host COP30. The decision underscores what climate advocates call a widening disconnect between leaders’ rhetoric and their actions.
“Ten years on from Paris, governments are still allowing fossil fuel companies to call the shots,” said Illan Zugman, managing director for Latin America at 350.org. “We see progress in words, but not yet in the numbers. Every new oil field or gas terminal wipes out the gains made in these NDCs. Just kilometers from where COP30 will take place, new licenses are being given out. Real climate leadership means drawing the line on fossil fuels now.”
Steffen Menzel, program lead for climate diplomacy and geopolitics at the think tank E3G, noted that “while some developed and developing countries are providing clear examples to follow, delays and lackluster pledges from major emitters such as the EU and China have undermined the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement.”
Environmental groups have long warned that without steep and immediate cuts in fossil fuel production, the global carbon budget for 1.5°C will be exhausted within a decade. The UN report echoes this concern, projecting that even with current pledges, the planet’s temperature will exceed the Paris threshold permanently by the early 2030s.
Despite this grim outlook, the UN sees a few positive signals. Renewables are expanding rapidly in several regions, and global emissions may peak within the next few years for the first time since the industrial revolution. But experts caution that such progress is far too slow to counteract the accelerating climate crisis.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, said that “renewables in many countries are booming and meet all new electricity demand this year and fossil fuels are finally showing signs of peaking. Yet, all progress is still far too slow. The success of COP30 now hinges less on the maths of new targets and more on the politics closing the ambition gap and accelerating a fair and fast transition from fossil fuels to renewables.”
Civil society leaders are emphasizing that COP30 must mark a turning point in the global response to the climate emergency, moving beyond promises toward concrete commitments. Shirley Matheson, global NDC enhancement coordinator for the World Wildlife Fund, said, “While countries are making genuine progress, the gap between words and action remains dangerously wide. At COP30, the G20 must stop hesitating and start delivering. It’s time to turn the slow jog into a sprint by supercharging a clean and fair energy transition. This means increasing the share of renewable energy while phasing out fossil fuels, mobilizing climate finance, and ending deforestation and the wider destruction of nature. The world can’t afford delay disguised as diplomacy.”
At the same time, global environmental damage continues to escalate. Earlier this month, researchers in the United Kingdom confirmed that coral reefs have reached a tipping point due to surging ocean temperatures. The UN has warned that the consequences of passing 1.5°C will include intensified heatwaves, more frequent storms, and massive disruptions to agriculture, health, and livelihoods.
For many scientists and policymakers, the question is no longer whether the planet will breach 1.5°C—but whether it can return below that level before irreversible damage occurs. “The success of COP30 now hinges less on the maths of new targets and more on the politics,” Sieber said. “It’s the politics that will decide how fast we can act.”
With the summit just days away, Guterres’ warning underscores what is at stake. “Overshooting is now inevitable,” he said, “but we must do everything possible to make sure the overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible.”
COMMENTS