A landmark study confirmed that Africa’s forests have officially crossed a tipping point, shifting from one of the world’s largest carbon “sinks” to a net source of carbon emissions.
For decades, the continent’s vast tropical rainforests acted as a massive vacuum, sucking billions of tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. However, data published in the journal Scientific Reports reveals that this “safety net” has diminished.
“This is a critical wake-up call,” lead researchers from the University of Leicester and the National Center for Earth Observation, said. “If we cannot rely on nature to absorb our excess carbon, the burden on humans to slash fossil fuel emissions becomes even more urgent.”
Between 2010 and 2017, the continent lost an average of 106 million tons of forest biomass every year. The study utilized advanced satellite technology and Lidar (laser imaging) to track changes in forest height and density with unprecedented accuracy. The findings suggest that the 2°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement is at much higher risk than previously modeled, as the planet’s natural cooling mechanisms begin to fail.
“If Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon, it means other regions and the world as a whole will need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more deeply to stay within the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change,” Professor Heiko Balzter, senior author and Director of the Institute for Environmental Futures at the University of Leicester, said. “Climate finance for the Tropical Forests Forever Facility must be scaled up quickly to put an end to global deforestation for good.”
Conservationists said that the trend isn’t irreversible—many organizations are calling for a massive surge in funding for the AFR100 initiative, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of land across Africa by 2030.
Experts warn that without a radical shift in forest governance and an end to illegal logging, the very forests that once protected the planet may soon accelerate its warming.
“Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large-scale restoration programs such as AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of African landscapes by 2030, can make a huge difference in reversing the damage done,” Dr. Nezha Acil, a co-author from the National Center for Earth Observation at the University of Leicester’s Institute for Environmental Futures, said.
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